As enrollment declines, councilman asks if ACPS should pause capacity expansion projects

Amid declining student enrollment numbers, an Alexandria city councilman is wondering whether Alexandria City Public Schools should shelve a costly conversion project to handle middle school capacity.

ACPS recently reported that its student population has fallen about 4% since the 2025-26 school year, descending from 15,928 to 15,295 students as of Sept. 30, 2026. The data follows Acting Superintendent Grace Taylor’s unveiling of a proposed $370.6 million Capital Improvement Program budget that exceeds the city’s budget guidance by more than $186 million.

Now, Alexandria City Councilman Abdel Elnoubi questions whether ACPS should pause a $48.7 million plan to convert Jefferson-Houston PreK-8 School into a middle school and Patrick Henry K-8 School into an elementary school in Fiscal Years 2029 and 2030.

Elnoubi told ALXnow that the school system should consider modular trailers. George Washington Middle School currently has 1,462 students (127% capacity), and Francis C. Hammond School currently has 1,514 students (108% capacity).

“If we decide we need a middle school, what is the solution that makes sense?” Elnoubi asked. “Is that trailers or modulars, or is that actually building a new middle school? And when do we do that?”

Elnoubi, who was previously a member of the Alexandria City School Board, said the city needs a subcommittee to discuss the issue.

“I’m always willing to work together to figure out how can we solve the problems that they are facing,” Elnoubi said, adding that the projections should impact the school system’s operating budget. “I want to see how they are going to look at their operating budget in light of these new projections, cost per pupil. It doesn’t make sense for the budget to be going up with the same rate if the projections are going down like this. So I want to see how that plays into their operating budget.”

School Board Chair Christopher Harris, at a recent work session, said that the school system should analyze a “no-build option” as the city navigates a hard budget season.

In a statement to ALXnow, ACPS said staff will present a detailed fall enrollment report to the School Board on Dec. 3.

“The ACPS Student Enrollment Data Dashboard has been updated with the information currently available,” ACPS said. “The report may address many of the questions raised and will be available following its presentation to the School Board.”

The proposed CIP has also drawn the ire of Jefferson-Houston parents opposed to the conversion.

“There are other viable options worthy of consideration and important questions still to be answered before committing to a long-term approach,” the Save Jefferson-Houston group said in an email. “We are encouraged by the School Board’s requests for additional enrollment projections and capacity scenarios and look forward to a thorough evaluation of those findings in the coming weeks.”

In May, the school system incorrectly projected growing to 15,598 students in the current Fiscal Year 2027, with peaking enrollment in FY2029 at 16,060 students before declining to 15,415 students in FY2036.

Enrollment declines are part of a regional trend, as seen in Fairfax County, Arlington, Montgomery County, Md. and Loudoun County.

Enrollment changes from 2025-26 school year to Sept. 30, 2026: Pre-K — From 378 students in 2025-26 to 375 students reported Kindergarten — From 1,298 students in 2025-26 to 1,218 students reported 1st grade — From 1,292 students in 2025-26 to 1,256 students reported 2nd grade — From 1,355 students in 2025-26 to 1,194 students reported 3rd grade — From 1,266 students in 2025-26 to 1,254 students reported 4th grade — From 1,301 students in 2025-26 to 1,186 students reported 5th grade — From 1,194 students in 2025-26 to 1,246 students reported (8,084 total elementary school students to 7,729 students) 6th grade — From 1,107 students in 2025-26 to 1,103 students 7th grade — From 1,200 students in 2025-26 to 1,054 students 8th grade — From 1,115 students in 2025-26 to 1,145 students (3,439 total middle schoolers to 3,302 students) 9th grade — From 1,274 students in 2025-26 to 1,220 students 10th grade — From 1,091 students in 2025-26 to 1,069 students 11th grade — From 997 students in 2025-26 to 910 students 12th grade — From 1,060 students in 2025-26 to 1,065 students (4,422 total high school students to 4,264 students) The Joint City Council/School Board Subcommittee meet tonight at 5 p.m. tonight.

The School Board will also hold a public hearing on the CIP at 6 p.m. on Tuesday (Nov. 10).

The story has been updated with the correct capacity figure for George Washington Middle School.

School image via Jefferson-Houston PreK-8 School/Facebook

As enrollment declines, councilman asks if ACPS should pause capacity expansion projects

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