<body><div><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=0dZCnN_1Gs0fV6l00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=0dZCnN_1Gs0fV6l00" width="1280" height="720" ></figure>Well, at least it was a “normal” loss. No soul-crushing 4th quarter collapse this time.That’s where things are 75% of the way through the 2026 season. A season that started with so much promise has turned totally on its head. Think about where things were with 12:01 to play against Indiana. Anthony Colandrea had weaved his way through the Indiana defense on a 3rd and 6. With five yards to paydirt, he took his left index finger and gestured towards former Husker Will Compton standing on the east sideline. Nebraska was about to go up two scores on a top 5 and defending national champion Hoosier squad.Since then, it’s as if the gods of football have stuck that index finger in Nebraska’s eye.Matt Rhule has made yet another November decision to can an offensive play caller. Dana Holgorsen was dismissed Saturday morning, almost exactly two years to the day he was brought on to replace Marcus Satterfield.Will it make a difference? Will replacing a “great offensive mind” be the thing to right the offensive woes? Is it just another Rhule rearrangement of the deck chairs on the Titanic? I don’t know if breaking down the details of Nebraska’s 24-13 loss at Illinois, its fourth straight, really does much good here. The season and the future of the program feel as if it has crested whatever peak it had under its now embattled head coach and is on the downhill run to a fate all too familiar to 21st century Cornhusker football.I’m not saying Matt Rhule’s time at head coach is done or should be done at this exact moment in time. It just feels like it is done. The date of expiration is still pending. We’ve seen this thing play out before.The one thing that seems to be propping up this house of cards is a strong contract that might as well have been engraved on gold bars. No other Husker deal in history has as impactful an influence. Compounding this is a $600-million-dollar stadium reconstruction project already underway – plus the weight of millions of dollars in cash already paid to Frank Solich, Bill Callahan, Bo Pelini, Mike Riley, Scott Frost and many of their athletic directors whose fates were tied to those individuals. There are mathematic realities and buyout fatigue that fog over everything.So what, exactly, is that math? Under the terms of the contract extension letter offered to Rhule last October the yearly salary looks as follows with the existing clause that 90% of the money would be owed to Rhule should he be fired.Salary/yr Total remain 90% (buyout)2027 10,000,000 71,000,000 63,900,000 If fired after 2026 season2028 11,500,000 61,000,000 54,900,000 If fired after 2027 season2029 12,000,000 49,500,000 44,550,000 If fired after 2028 season2030 12,500,000 37,500,000 33,750,000 If fired after 2029 season2031 12,500,000 25,000,000 22,500,000 If fired after 2030 season2032 12,500,000 12,500,000 11,250,000Since last October came the rather unusual deal that saw Nebraska purchase Rhule’s NIL rights (in other words, UNL controls the rights to any Rhule endorsements, media &amp; personal appearances, merchandise sales, etc.) for $5 million dollars. In that same deal, 75% of Rhule’s base salary would be paid to Rhule while the other 25% would be redirected to an LLC created by Rhule and his wife Julie. Details of that are read here. The new contract, which reflects the 75% in base salary but does not reflect details of the NIL agreement can be seen here.What is not known at present is if the mitigated damages owed to Rhule is only the 75% of his base salary or if it also includes the 25% owed to the LLC. If the buyout is just the 75% of base, then the buyout owed if fired after this season would be $47.9 million dollars. That’s still, easily, the largest money the school would ever pay somebody NOT to work at the University of Nebraska.But what these figures don’t factor are the hidden cost. What is the cost to a program, a brand going through massive change? Two weeks from now, Ohio State visits Nebraska in their final home game inside Memorial Stadium in its current configuration. Tickets are still unsold for that game, putting the 64-year sellout streak in jeopardy (though UNL administration appears set on making sure that tradition doesn’t die.) More important, season ticket holders and big money boosters are jockeying for positioning in the reconfigured stadium and a very unpopular, but overdue, re-seating process is angering large segments of a loyal fanbase.Those folks who are teetering on the brink of renewing long-held season tickets versus letting them go could be pushed over the edge to non-attendance if they see no hope in the future under their current coach. Could an estimated $30 million annually in new revenue expected under the new seating policy be dramatically reduced? Would fans balk at higher prices for a product that has given them some of the worst return on investment in college sports? That’s new revenue needed to help pay off construction bonds AND…There’s the NIL component. Donors are contributing to rosters that are costing $25 to $30 million today and that price isn’t falling. If they don’t see the value in the coaching those rosters are getting, those dollars will be affected, too.It seems dramatic to say we are at a most critical juncture in Nebraska Athletic Department history but I don’t think it is inaccurate. The decision to make at head coach today is likely to have impact for years to come in the ever-expensive world of college-professional athletics.The question Troy Dannen (and/or his superiors) have to weigh is taken straight from the old tagline from, of all things, a commercial for Fram oil filters.“You can pay a little now. Or a lot later.”N’SIDE THE NUMBERSOnce again, Nebraska’s Blackshirts was stifling against the run, allowing just 84 yards on 29 carries (2.9 YPC). Here are the rush defense numbers in the first five games (wins) and the current four game losing streak.Five Game Win Streak: 158 carries, 503 yards, 3.18 YPCFour Game Losing Streak: 108 carries, 310 yards, 2.87 YPCThis is the best four-game stretch against the run defensively since 2023 when Tony White’s defense allowed 261 yards on 118 carries (2.21 YPC) during a 3-1 stretch versus Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue &amp; Michigan State. The first four games of that season (Minnesota, Colorado, Northern Illinois &amp; Louisiana Tech) the 2023 defense allowed just 185 yards on 101 carries (1.83 YPC) and during that stretch the Huskers went 2-2.So there have been THREE four-game streaks of suffocating run defense under Matt Rhule which in total have looked like this: 327 carries, 756 yards, 2.31 YPC.By comparison, in those same 12 games Nebraska’s offense carried the ball 479 times for 2043 yards, 4.26 YPC.In those 12 games, 10 of which were against Power 4 opponents, Nebraska went 5-7.The old axiom of running the ball and stopping the run doesn’t seem to apply to Matt Rhule’s Cornhuskers.The Huskers gained 426 yards of offense in Friday’s loss in Champaign, that’s the most yards gained in a loss since 2022 at Purdue when Nebraska gained 476 yards in just 52 played in a 43-37 shootout in West Lafayette.Scoring just 13 points meant Nebraska averaged 32.7 yards-per-point. How does that compare to other losses since 2023?2023 Michigan 43.6 yards-per-point2024 Indiana 43.4 yards-per-point2026 Washington 38.7 yards-per-point2025 Minnesota 35.5 yards-per-point2024 Iowa 33.4 yards-per-point2026 Illinois 32.7 yards-per-point2025 Penn State 31.8 yards-per-pointTURNOVER MARGINNo turnovers in Champaign. Typically, when Nebraska breaks even in turnover margin they are winning games at a 71% clip since 1973. But under Matt Rhule breaking even hasn’t been as fruitful. The loss Friday drops Rhule’s record when the turnover margin is equal to 6-8. Only the Scott Frost-era Huskers has a lower win percentage in 0 turnover margin games, 4-7.COLANDREA OFFENSIVE RATE (His yards divided by team’s total yards)Vs. Illinois 311 yards of 426 total yards = 73.0%Season total: Colandrea 2489 yards of 3824 total yards = 65.1%In B1G games (5 games): 1722 yards of 2262 total yards = 76.1%School record (since 1962): Zac Taylor, 67.95% in 2005POINT SPREAD DIFFERENTIALThe Huskers have now dropped back-to-back games ATS, making their record 6-3 vs. the number. The spread differential is now 23.5, meaning Nebraska is covering the spread by an average of 2.6 points per game.Matt Rhule’s teams have struggled as a favorite, especially in B1G play.2023: 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, -13.52024: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, -4.52025: 3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS, -302026: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, -8TOTAL: 9-7 SU, 5-11 ATS, -56 spread differential</div></body>

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Well, at least it was a “normal” loss. No soul-crushing 4th quarter collapse this time. That’s where things are 75% of the way through the 2026 season. A season that started with so much promise has turned totally on its head. Think about where things were with 12:01 to play against Indiana. Anthony Colandrea had weaved his way through the Indiana defense on a 3rd and 6. With five yards to paydirt, he took his left index finger and gestured towards former Husker Will Compton standing on the east sideline. Nebraska was about to go up two scores on a top 5 and defending national champion Hoosier squad.

Sunday School: It Feels Over

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Well, at least it was a “normal” loss. No soul-crushing 4th quarter collapse this time. That’s where things are 75% of the way through the 2026 season. A s

Sunday School: It Feels Over

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