Election results and Oregon Ag

A blue wave washed over the country on Tuesday. Here in Oregon, already a deep blue state, we took on more water. Despite overwhelming dissatisfaction with the direction of the state, voters returned Gov. Tina Kotek to office and appear to have given Democrats even more room to work with in both chambers of the State Legislature. Ballots are still being counted, but if the current counts hold, Democrats will enter the 2027 Oregon Legislative Session with a 39–21 majority in the House and a 19–11 majority in the Senate.

In the House, two seats look to be flipping to Democrats: Michael Welsh is ahead of incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Mannix in House District 21 in the Salem area, and Democrat Hank Sanders leads Republican Scott Hege in House District 52, the open Columbia Gorge seat held by Rep. Jeff Helfrich. The District 52 race seemed particularly impacted by a raging data center debate. On the North Coast, Rep. Cyrus Javadi is leading Republican Max Sherman in House District 32. Javadi switched parties last year, seeming to align with the general theme of voters across the country who have largely turned away from Republicans since the 2024 election. The only remaining race that was still relatively close was in Linn County, HD 15, where incumbent Republican Shelly Boshart Davis holds a slim lead (just more than 1000 votes) over her challenger, Joanna Robinson.

In the Senate, Democrat Virginia Stapleton leads Republican Tracy Cramer in Senate District 11, the Salem-area seat held by outgoing Republican Sen. Kim Thatcher. Republicans appear to have held two other open Senate seats, with Courtney Bangs leading Rachel Armitage in Senate District 16 on the North Coast and Rep. Helfrich leading Nicole Bassett for Senate District 26 in the Gorge. In Southern Oregon’s Senate District 3, Democrat Denise Krause was comfortably ahead of Republican Brad Hicks, keeping outgoing Sen. Jeff Golden’s seat in Democratic hands. Given the historic gains by Democrats this cycle, it’s hard to see many districts left that Democrats could take from Republicans in coming cycles.

In the governor’s race, Christine Drazan tried to make the case that Oregon needed a different direction on affordability, the economy and how state government delivers. Despite performing better than any other Republican gubernatorial candidate across the country, even incumbents, she was not able to draw a clear enough distinction between herself and President Donald Trump for her message to gain enough traction with non-affiliated voters. Few Republican candidates around the country effectively rebuked Trumps economic policies, leaving voters do it for themselves.

To have any chance in statewide elections, Oregon Republicans will have to once again consider how they reach nonaffiliated voters, who make up the largest group of registered voters in the state. Given Oregon’s closed-primary system, this will continue to be a challenge. Despite plenty of frustration with the direction of state government heading into this election, we ended with little change in the political landscape. The national and state-level election outcomes suggest Republicans still have work to do to turn that frustration into votes in suburban and urban areas, particularly given their registration disadvantage.

For OFS, our efforts preparing for 2027 won’t change much given that the political dynamics will remain largely the same. We will be watching who gets tapped to lead committees that handle agriculture, forestry, and natural resource issues, and how those committees are organized. We’ve been in touch with incoming legislators from both parties and are strategizing on how best to educate and advocate for our members when the Legislature convenes in January. Those early conversations will be a chance to help new lawmakers understand how decisions on crop protection tools, water, and forest management play out for the people who have to put them into practice.

Oregonians are concerned about affordability. New regulatory costs, fees, or restrictions on businesses are ultimately additional costs for Oregonians. We hope all Legislators recognize this going into 2027.

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Election results and Oregon Ag

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