POST ELECTION ANALYSIS: Blue wave nationally but South Dakota remains Ruby Red

While the results are still coming in, as this report is filed, nationally, there is a Democratic Blue Wave akin to such elections as the Obama landslide in 2008, the post Watergate landslide in 1974 and even the FDR macro landslide of 1932. To the surprise of most, the Democrats will have at least 54 Senate seats and possibly as many as 56 in the 100 member U.S. Senate. Projections are that they may secure as many as 250 of 435 U. S. House seats.

Exit polls indicated that the high cost of gas, food and fertilizer caused by the very unpopular Iran war and corruption in Washington led to the voters revolt. Even Vice President, JD Vance, admitted that the war in Iran and it’s related high cost were the major reasons for the gigantic Republican losses.

But, here in South Dakota, the Republicans swept all major races. Governor Rhoden won 63.5% over Democrat Dan Ahlers’ 36.5%, Congressman Jackley 64.0% over Democrat Nikki Gronli 36.0% and Independent U.S. Senate candidate Brian Bengs secured the highest of the opposition candidates with 39.5% against Senator Rounds 60.5%. Both of those campaigns went very negative in the final weeks.

But the advertising seems to have had a little impact on the outcome.

The SD State legislative races were dismal for the Democrats. They retained 10 House seats but lost one of their three Senate seats and are now down to two, both adjoining Districts, 10 and 15 in northern Sioux Falls. The only two Democrats to win West River were Incumbent S.D. House members, Nicole Uhre-Balk in District 32 in Rapid City and Eric Emery in District 26 A ( Rosebud Sioux Tribe).

“Indian country” has gone RED and WHITE? Historically, the tribal reservations and tribal urban areas have been the strongest supporters of the Democratic Party in SD. In Obama‘s 2008 victory, Oglala Lakota County (Pine Ridge) voted 88% for Obama, the highest county for him in the U.S. In his 2012 reelection, the county voted 93% for Obama.

But turn out in “Indian country” has always been a challenge. Statewide turnout for the 2026 midterms in SD was 49.4% but only 28.9% in Oglala Lakota County, 35.4% District 28 A (Cheyene River & Standing Rock Sioux Tribes) and Todd County (Rosebud Sioux Tribe) 37.4%.

In District 27, former Democratic Representative Peri Pourier, switched parties to Republican in 2025 and ran as an Independent Republican from Pine Ridge. She received 19% of the vote. Celestine Standick, the Democratic candidate, received 38% but Republican, Anthony Kathol won with 43%. In the House incumbent Republican Elizabeth May received 34%. Evangeline Poor Bear, an Independent affiliated with the Republican Party, won the second seat with 22%. Pure Independent Joe Flood came in third with 20%. Thus, District 27 (approximately 80% American Indian population) will be represented by two non-Indian conservative Republicans. The third OST member is also an Independent Republican.

In District 28A, conservative Republican CRST tribal member Jana Hunt was reelected with 59% compared to challenger Democratic CRST member Chas Jewett 41%. Thus, the only American Indian Democrat in the SD legislature remaining is Eric Emery, District 26 A (Rosebud).

FUSION Politics: A way forward for Independents, progressives and Democrats?

Due in part to a bump in registration during the heated four-way primary for Governor, Republican registration in South Dakota is currently at an all-time high of 52.9% lndependents and non-affiliated voters combined are 25.0% and Democrats are at one of their lowest in history at 21.5%.

Brian Bengs filed as an Independent and ran a competitive race against incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Rounds. While he was defeated by Rounds 60.5% to 39.5%, he outperformed the Democratic candidates for Governor by 3.0 % and U.S. Congress by 3.1%, respectively.

During the final days of the campaign, Bengs held a three hour interactive session with a core of supporters in Rapid City. Both the supporters and later Bengs himself identified with Teddy Roosevelt and the Bull Moose party.

The platform of Roosevelt's New Nationalism promised to force corporations to 'play by the rules,' to promote government regulation of 'arrogant' big businesses, to institute a federal income tax, and called for additional federal regulations to protect children and workers. The New Nationalism would form the basis of Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party in 1912.

The Bull Moose ticket polled some 25 percent of the popular vote. Thus split, the Republicans lost the election to the Democrats under Woodrow Wilson. The Bull Moose Party evaporated, and the Republicans were reunited four years later.

Bengs, fully supports breaking up the billionaire class and making them pay their fair share for government social service programs. When challenged if he would continue to lead a progressive movement in the future, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, he indicated he would be open to being a leader in such a movement. He indicated that a number of military Veterans throughout the United States are discussing such a Movement that may lead into a new Independent party.

Bengs attracted national attention and appeared on Meet the Press with fellow Independent Dan Osborn from Nebraska. Osborn ran a competitive race but was defeated by Republican Senate candidate Rickets 50.4%-43.6% on November 3.

I proposed a fusion, Buffalo Independent Democratic party, patterned after the very successful Democratic Farm Labor party formed by South Dakota native Hubert Humphrey in Minnesota in the 1940s. To this day, the DFL still controls politics in adjoining Minnesota. One of Bengs supporters suggested the new party could be called the Bullmoose 2. I have no problem with what the new fusion party is called, but it could be a saving grace for a progressive resurgence in South Dakota.

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Tom Katus is an occasional guest columnist for the Rapid City Post. He was the last Democratic State Senator to be elected from Rapid City(2026). The above article is his analysis and views. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the Post .

POST ELECTION ANALYSIS: Blue wave nationally but South Dakota remains Ruby Red

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