<div><p><b>Flash flooding possible overnight:</b> Showers and thunderstorms along a stationary front are expected to increase in coverage and intensify overnight across North Dakota into Minnesota. Heavy rainfall with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour could produce 2 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, through 3:00 a.m. CDT.</p><h2>Context</h2><p>It follows Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1387 for the same area.</p><h2>What’s Driving It</h2><p>A stationary front is providing focus for developing convection, while a 30 to 35 knot low-level jet from the south is driving convergence and lift. Abundant moisture with precipitable water near 1.6 inches is fueling the storms. High-resolution models suggest convection may repeatedly develop along the front as it wavers across the region, with training possible as winds align to the boundary, which could concentrate rainfall and increase flash flood risk.</p><h2>What To Look For</h2><p>Activity is forecast to continue expanding and intensifying overnight, with models in good agreement on the trend despite some differences in heaviest rainfall placement. Convection may repeatedly occur near the stationary front as moisture surges northward, potentially producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour and localized amounts exceeding 4 inches. Soil moisture is generally dry across southern and eastern North Dakota where the greatest flash flood risk is expected, though recent rainfall over Minnesota has left wetter conditions there.</p><p>Valid until 3:00 a.m. CDT.</p></div>

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Flash flooding possible overnight: Showers and thunderstorms along a stationary front are expected to increase in coverage and intensify overnight across North Dakota into Minnesota. Heavy rainfall with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour could produce 2 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, through 3:00 a.m. CDT.

Heavy rain possible North Dakota into Minnesota

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Flash flooding possible overnight: Showers and thunderstorms along a stationary front are expected to increase in coverage and intensify overnight across N

Heavy rain possible North Dakota into Minnesota

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