<body><div>X f ◉ 🦋 ✉<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=3DiWPH_1FY0sYiI00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3DiWPH_1FY0sYiI00" width="1024" height="576" ></figure>The StakesIt will be a day where a storm or two will become supercells amidst a larger crop of multicells and even single cells. Hail is the main threat.The SetupWater vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the central/southern High Plains lifting northeast this morning, with a smaller upper jet slicing across the TX Panhandle into Oklahoma. A lee trough keeps southerly low-level flow (and modest moisture, dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s) streaming across the region. This morning's scattered storms should fizzle, with the real action holding off until 21-23 UTC as low-level lapse rates steepen and the cap erodes.<figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=2HTKnz_1FY0sYiI00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=2HTKnz_1FY0sYiI00" width="819" height="1024" ></figure>The Ingredients<ul><li>Where: Widely scattered to scattered storms develop from south-central KS through western OK and into west/northwest TX by mid-afternoon.</li><li>Shear: Deep-layer shear is strong enough for storm organization, and modified soundings show extensive veering with height, enough for a supercell or two later today into the evening.</li><li>Threats: Isolated large hail and severe gusts, mainly 22z-02z, with the risk lingering overnight rather than shutting off at sunset.</li></ul><figure><img src="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?type=thumbnail_580x000&amp;url=2AAaje_1FY0sYiI00" alt="https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=2AAaje_1FY0sYiI00" width="819" height="1024" ></figure>The Question Marks<ul><li>Timing is everything: The HRRR is late on initiation, holding off until just before sunset. If storms fire earlier than that, the severe threat locally increases with any supercells that form; if it verifies late, the window to watch shrinks.</li><li>Surface-based or not: Whether storms can stay surface-based is the other half of that same question, and it's tied directly to when they form.</li><li>The sunset window: SPC's 22z-02z timing lines up with where I'd put the highest-risk stretch too. This is basically the hours surrounding sunset for those of you who can’t read Zulu time. </li><li>The tornado question, again: After yesterday's surprise tornado in eastern New Mexico, it's fair to wonder if strong low-level shear and high streamwiseness near sunset could produce another surprise in Oklahoma. Same answer as yesterday: you can never say never, but the tornado threat is extremely low. Supercells, yes. Tornadoes, probably not but yet...</li></ul></div></body>

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It will be a day where a storm or two will become supercells amidst a larger crop of multicells and even single cells. Hail is the main threat. Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the central/southern High Plains lifting northeast this morning, with a smaller upper jet slicing across the TX Panhandle into Oklahoma. A lee trough keeps southerly low-level flow (and modest moisture, dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s) streaming across the region. This morning's scattered storms should fizzle, with the real action holding off until 21-23 UTC as low-level lapse rates steepen and the cap erodes.

A Supercell or Two in W. Oklahoma Today

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It will be a day where a storm or two will become supercells amidst a larger crop of multicells and even single cells. Hail is the main threat. Water vapor

A Supercell or Two in W. Oklahoma Today

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