Texas Housing Insight | September 2026

Disclaimer: The July 2026 figures are based on more complete data and have been revised from their initial release.

Throughout July, the Texas housing market held up remarkably well despite persistently high mortgage rates, rising inflation, and broad economic uncertainty. Supported by the state’s strong labor market, statewide sales increased 2.2 percent year over year (YoY) in July, building on the strong sales performance recorded in June. Year to date, sales were 3.2 percent higher than the same period last year, unchanged from June.

Housing supply across Texas continues to expand at a slow but steady pace. Heading into the fall, however, active inventory is expected to retreat from its summer peak as seasonal demand slows sharply, and sellers pull back from fresh new-listings activity. This seasonal moderation should help limit further inventory accumulation, although buyers will continue to benefit from more choices than they had during the tight market just a few years ago.

Home prices remain under pressure in July, but the annual rate of decline continued to moderate. Statewide prices were 0.2 percent below their year-ago levels, improving from declines of 0.4 percent in June and 0.6 percent in May. The statewide median sales price was unchanged from last year at $339,000. Preliminary August data point to a further easing of downward price pressures. The improvement was especially evident in Houston, where July marked the first month in the past 12 months in which home prices did not decline on a YoY basis.

For a housing market already grappling with affordability challenges, the outlook heading into the fall remains subdued. In response to recent inflation data, capital market began pricing in a higher interest rate environment, pushing borrowing costs upward even before the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike on Sept. 16. As a result, mortgage rates had already been trending higher and moved above 7 percent ahead of the decision. Higher financing costs are expected to remain the primary headwind for the housing market in the months ahead.

On the positive side, a resilient labor market is offsetting some of the strong headwinds. Recent economic data continues to point to a solid labor market, which should help sustain household income growth and support housing demand. Nevertheless, as the market enters its seasonally slower period, the new higher rate environment will weigh on home sales activity across Texas through the remainder of the year.

July Sales Post Modest Gains Table 1: July 2026 State & National Sales

Notes: The sales numbers reflect actual sales, not the seasonally adjusted rate.

Source: Texas REALTORS® and National Association of REALTORS® data (accessed at Haver Analytics)

Statewide, Texas recorded 32,306 closed sales in July, a 2.2 percent increase YoY. Through July, year-to-date (YTD) sales were 3.2 percent higher than during the same period last year, unchanged since June. July sales activity was mixed across the major Texas metros, with YoY growth ranging from 11.7 percent gains in Austin to 1.5 percent drop in DFW (see Table 3). As of July, Austin YTD sales pace running 9 percent above last year’s (see Table 3). Texas’ median sales price was $339,000 in July, unchanged from a year ago but down slightly from $342,000 in June. Nationally, non-seasonally adjusted existing home sales rose 3.1 percent YoY in July and were 2.4 percent above last year’s pace on a YTD basis. Meanwhile, the median existing single-family home price rose to $442,500 with a 2.4 percent gain from $432,000 a year earlier. Pending sales point to a weaker August sales in Texas and nationwide. Monthly Market Snapshot: July Sales and Inventory Trends Table 2: Texas Housing Market Indicators

Notes: The turnover rate is calculated as pending sales divided by inventory, where inventory is the average of month-beginning and month-ending inventory