Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips . MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring .
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
South of the border
Saturday marks the first game of the 2024 Mexico City Series, this year featuring the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros . Like last year, the games will be at Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium, which plays even more hitter-friendly than Coors Field. In the opener of the 2023 Mexico City Series, the San Diego Padres outslugged the San Francisco Giants 16-11. The finale was much lower scoring with the Padres also taking the finale 6-4.
The Rockies will serve as the host with Cal Quantrill throwing the first pitch at 6:05 p.m. ET. The Astros will counter with Ronel Blanco . Considering the extremely favorable hitting venue, and the quality of both lineups, neither starter should be active for fantasy purposes. Most of the Astros batters are rostered in over half of ESPN leagues. Jeremy Pena is an exception as he's available in 44.8%. Pena is not a fly ball hitter, but he's striking out at a career low 15.1% clip and much like Coors Field, you want to put the ball in play in Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium.
The Rockies have several hitters readily available. Someone to watch is recently recalled Hunter Goodman (1.1% rostered in ESPN leagues). He went deep on Thursday after clubbing homers for Triple-A Albuquerque. While that's impressive, keep in mind Goodman's home park when in the minors plays like where he'll be this weekend.
Everything else you need to know for Saturday
• Saturday's first game is a bit later than usual with a 3:07 p.m. ET start. It also features the marquee pitching matchup of the day with Yusei Kikuchi and the Toronto Blue Jays hosting Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers .
• The rule of thumb is calling out favorable starting pitchers with a rostership under 50%. With Aaron Civale barely over at 51.5%, and the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Chicago White Sox , an exception is in order. Civale is coming off a rough game in Yankee Stadium where he walked five and allowed eight hits in 4 2/3 innings, helping the New York Yankees score five runs. However, that's over half of what the White Sox average per game. Civale's strikeout rate increased last season after he was dealt to the Rays. He's maintained an elevated pace with a career-high 26.7% mark.
• Mitchell Parker 's first two MLB starts came against the Dodgers on the road, and at home against the Houston Astros . On paper, it doesn't get more difficult, but the 24-year old southpaw posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.58 WHIP with 12 strikeouts and no walks in 12 innings. Even facing a slumping Astros lineup, that's impressive. The Washington Nationals are in South Beach for a date with the Miami Marlins , rendering Parker (14.3% rostered) one of the top streamers on the card. The hosts are averaging the third fewest runs per game in MLB.
• Parker will be opposed by Edward Cabrera . Especially with Jesus Luzardo recently placed on the IL with elbow tightness, the Marlins need Cabrera (24.6% rostered) to continue his solid start to the season. In his first two outings, Cabrera has fanned 17 with a palatable four walks over 11 stanzas. The Nationals are averaging the fifth fewest runs in the league, landing Cabrera as a candidate for a spot start in what portends to be a low-scoring affair.
Betting Tip of the Day: I expect a low-scoring game in South Beach with Edward Cabrera and the Miami Marlins hosting Mitchell Parker and Washington Nationals . I was hoping for a little higher line, or better odds, but I'll take the under on 7.5 runs (even). Backing the under may often be the smart play, but it's more fun rooting for the over. Let's have some fun today and put some juice on the Mexico City Series ( Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies ) and take the over on 16.5 runs (even).
What you may have missed on Saturday
By Todd Zola
• The Baltimore Orioles optioned Jackson Holliday to Triple-A Norfolk. The 20-year-old infielder posted a .059/.111/.059 line in 36 plate appearances. Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo will tag team to replace Holliday, with Jordan Westburg shuffling between second base and third base. Holliday will likely be back in the Show this season, but it will take more than the solid 10-game stint Holliday recorded to earn him his promotion earlier this month.
• Zac Gallen left last night's game with a trainer in the sixth inning, but the early reports are encouraging as Gallen appears to have incurred just spasms in his right hamstring. The club is optimistic the righty will be able to make his next start, which lines up for next Wednesday.
• Yesterday, the Tampa Bay Rays indicated that Josh Lowe will make his 2024 debut today. Last season, Lowe played most of the time in right field, though he was in center field for his rehab stint. It's unclear if this signals current center fielder Jose Siri will lose playing time. After a strong start to the season, Siri is hitting just .182/.273/.273, albeit with six stolen bases.
• Sticking with the Rays, the club reported that the series of tests run on Pete Fairbanks revealed no structural issues with his throwing arm. The right-handed closer has been dealing with a nerve issue. Despite the positive news, Fairbanks' return remains unknown.
• Colin Poche was part of the committee filling in for Fairbanks, but Poche was put on the 15-day IL with back tightness. Jason Adam and Garrett Cleavinger are the top options for ninth inning duty.
• Lastly, Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz was hit in the hand by a pitch last night, but the X-rays were negative. It's unclear whether Diaz will be in today's lineup.
• The Milwaukee Brewers announced that veteran southpaw Wade Miley has a torn UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery. The club is already without starters Jakob Junis and DL Hall. Joe Ross , Bryse Wilson and Tobias Myers will be relied upon for innings until Junis and Hall return, hopefully in early May.
• Last night, Mason Miller registered his seventh save. He's faced 48 batters with 25 punch outs (52.1% strikeout rate). For the season, Miller has thrown 117 fastballs, with 86 registering triple-digits. Twenty-two more measured between 90.0 and 99.9 mph. His slowest four-seamer was 97.9 mph.
It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league . Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart , which will be updated every morning.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.
- Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS -- 45%) at Cal Quantrill
- Chas McCormick (HOU, LF -- 15%) at Quantrill
- Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 20%) vs. Ronel Blanco
- Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 11%) vs. Blanco
- Mauricio Dubon (HOU, 2B -- 2%) at Quantrill
- Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 2%) vs. Blanco
- Elehuris Montero (COL, 1B -- 0%) vs. Blanco
- Brenton Doyle (COL, CF -- 4%) vs. Blanco
- Hunter Goodman (COL, RF -- 0%) vs. Blanco
- Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF -- 21%) at Adrian Houser
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday
- Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 61%) at Dylan Cease
- Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) vs. JP Sears
- Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 73%) at George Kirby
- J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 92%) at Cease
- Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 62%) vs. Sonny Gray
- Bryson Stott (PHI, 2B -- 67%) at Cease
- Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B -- 82%) at Cease
- Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 56%) at Jordan Hicks
- Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B -- 77%) at Charlie Morton
- Luis Campusano (SD, C -- 52%) vs. Ranger Suarez
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