Already? Forecasters watch ‘small’ tropical disturbance in Atlantic

A small, steady patch of showers and thunderstorms has caught the eyes of forecasters at the National Hurricane Center well before the start of the hurricane season on June 1.

In a “special tropical weather outlook” released around 4 p.m. on Wednesday, forecasters pinpointed an area about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Forecasters called it an area of low pressure that is likely to move southwest at up to 15 mph. However, the little system is likely to reach an area with strong winds Wednesday night and Thursday morning, stunting further development.

The system has just a 10% chance of growing further in the next week.

Though a bit strange, an early season disturbance is not unheard of, said Stephen Shiveley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.

A few other disturbances have popped up in the month of April over the past decade, Shiveley said.

Shiveley pointed to a special outlook released in 2021 on April 16 and another set of outlooks from 2017 that ran from April 17 to April 21. The 2017 system became Subtropical Depression One, the first formed system of that year.

Jennifer Hubbard, a weather service meteorologist, said the low pressure in the Atlantic has very little chance of turning into anything further. The only weather ingredient helping the system along is record-warm waters in the Atlantic, though it’s likely not enough to sustain the disturbance.

Shiveley said the early-season system shouldn’t be seen as a harbinger of what might happen once hurricane season kicks off.

However, early forecasts say it could be a busy season.

Colorado State University, a renowned tropical weather and forecast team, said in early April that it is anticipating an “extremely active” hurricane season because of scorching Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a likely La Niña weather pattern that fuels hurricane growth.

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