Russia Issues Nuclear Threat Ahead of Ukrainian Counter Offensive–ISW

Russia is trying to use nuclear threats to discourage Kyiv's Western backers from providing military aid ahead of an expected counter-offensive, according to a new assessment.

Speaking on Tuesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu issued "reinvigorated nuclear blackmail rhetoric," according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.

Shoigu defended Russia's decision to transfer nuclear weapons to Belarus, saying NATO had increased combat training and reconnaissance at Russia's borders. He said Western aid to Ukraine "risks a significant expansion of the conflict," according to a Kremlin readout.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on March 25 that Russia would station nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus , one of Moscow's staunchest allies. It was the first time the Kremlin had moved to place Russian nuclear weapons outside the country since the fall of the Soviet Union.

The Russian ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, later said the weapons would be "moved up close to the Western border" of Belarus, in closer proximity to many NATO countries.

Russia has escalated its nuclear threats against Western nations backing the Kyiv government since the start of all-out hostilities in February 2022. Belarus was used by Russian forces to launch their invasion effort, and Minsk has been publicly supportive of the war.

Shoigu "reinforced existing Russian nuclear threats" on Tuesday, the ISW said, telling Russian military commanders that Belarus had nuclear-capable attack aircraft and the Iskander-M missile system, capable of nuclear strikes . But Shoigu's information was not new, the ISW added, and "was likely part of an information operation."

Putin will meet with Belarus' leader, Alexander Lukashenko, on Wednesday and Thursday, the Kremlin confirmed.

Late last month, Putin said the transfer of nuclear weapons would not violate non-proliferation agreements, saying there was "nothing unusual" about the move. In the wake of the announcement, the U.S. said it "not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture nor any indications Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon."

Shoigu's statements come ahead of Ukraine's long-anticipated spring offensive. Russian forces are continuing to prepare for a "rumored pending" Ukrainian push in the south of the country, the ISW said.

In late March, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told Russian media that Moscow's military commanders were "calculating" for a move by Kyiv, and the Kremlin's general staff "is preparing its own solutions."

Ukrainian officials had stressed the importance of weapons deliveries from the West to be able to carry out such a counter-offensive, and the "arrival of equipment in Ukraine likely sets conditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive," the ISW wrote in late March.

The U.S. Department of Defense announced a new $2.6 billion security aid package for Ukraine on Tuesday, including additional ammunition for Kyiv's High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), while Finland formally joined NATO, ending its policy of military non-alignment in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

A senior U.S. defense official said on Tuesday that the newly-unveiled round of aid was focused on "supporting the Ukrainians to change the dynamic on the ground."

"We want to help Ukraine advance and hold its positions in what we expect will be a Ukrainian counteroffensive," the official added in a Pentagon briefing.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.