Man City vs RB Leipzig prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League second leg
By Kyle Bonn,2023-03-14
Manchester City have made things a bit harder on themselves than they would have wished as they welcome RB Leipzig to the Etihad for the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 matchup on Tuesday.
Pep Guardiola could only watch as his side conceded a 74th-minute equaliser in the first leg which saw the sides draw 1-1 and left the 90 minutes in England to decide the quarterfinal participant.
While Man City are still expected to advance, listed as heavy favourites at home, fans will see this as more tense than they'd have preferred, without a confirmed lead on aggregate prior to kickoff. Still, fitness levels favour the hosts, who have a fully fit squad, while Leipzig look to work around the continued injury absence of talisman Christopher Nkunku.
As City search for their first-ever Champions League title, they will feel all the pressure in this match while Leipzig will have a memorable upset on their minds.
Man City vs RB Leipzig odds
Despite the even aggregate score headed into the second leg, Man City are gigantic favourites at home to secure a quarterfinal place. The hosts are given around 1/3 odds to win and 1/6 odds to advance, depending on sports book. Meanwhile, RB Leipzig are around 7/1 underdogs to win outright in the 90 minutes, and 4/1 underdogs to advance.
There is significantly more confusion, however, around the flow of the game, as oddsmakers are almost perfectly split on whether RB Leipzig can breach the Man City back line. Still, they expect goals to flow, mostly from the home side.
There was some minimal line movement on the day of the match pushing Man City even further ahead as favourite, but overall the original odds held true.
| BetMGM |
| Sports |
| SkyBet |
| Neds |
| Dafabet |
|Man City win||-275||-341||2/5||1.36||1.39|
|RB Leipzig win||+750||+727||13/2||8.00||8.00|
| Both teams |
to score Y / N
|-110 / -130||-123 / -126||8/11, 1/1||1.80 / 1.91||1.87 / 1.94|
| Over / Under |
|-175 / +120||-153 / +119||8/15, 11/8||1.57 / 2.30||—|
|Man City advance||-700||-677||1/6||1.15||1.19|
|RB Leipzig advance||+400||+374||7/2||4.80||5.20|
Man City vs RB Leipzig: 3 things to know
Man City vs RB Leipzig match facts
- Date: Tuesday, March 14
- Kickoff Time: 4:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm GMT / 7:00 am AEDT (Wed, Mar. 15)
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- Official: Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
- First leg: RB Leipzig 1-1 Man City (Feb. 22, 2023)
Man City vs RB Leipzig team news
Pep Guardiola has an entirely fit squad to choose from as Man City welcome their German opponents, a rarity in the modern game with so many fixtures to contest. The only concern ahead of the weekend game against Crystal Palace was the fitness of Phil Foden , who was dealing with a foot injury, but he started and played 58 minutes. They did not pick up any additional fitness issues in the match that are known publicly.
RB Leipzig are in real trouble selection wise thanks to Christopher Nkunku reinjuring his hamstring , sidelining him for another month. Nkunku already missed time earlier this year, and only just made his first start back on March 5 in Bundesliga play, but was withdrawn after 83 minutes with a "minor" hamstring injury, according to the club, and missed this past weekend's match against Gladbach. Additionally, Leipzig are missing Abdou Diallo and Xaver Schlager , while Peter Gulacsi is out long-term as he recovers from an ACL tear.
Man City vs RB Leipzig key stats
- Man City have won just one of the three matches against RB Leipzig in their history, a 6-3 victory in the 2021 Champions League group stage, before losing the return fixture in Germany 2-1.
- RB Leipzig have 17 different goal scorers this season in Bundesliga play, the most in the German top-flight.
- Man City have not conceded multiple goals in a single match since beating Tottenham 4-2 on January 19, a run of 11 straight games across all competitions. They've kept five clean sheets in that span, outscoring opponents 22-6 and losing just once.
Man City vs RB Leipzig prediction
- Moneyline lean: Man City (-275)
- Score prediction: Man City 2-1 RB Leipzig
This game won't feature an explosion of goals, but there should be plenty of good end-to-end action for fans to enjoy at the Etihad. The City back line has improved of late, but against a high quality RB Leipzig front line they will surely find themselves under pressure.
The problem for Leipzig, in the absence of Nkunku, will be finishing chances. They missed two "big chances" against City in the first leg, and against Borussia Dortmund on March 3 they netted just once despite loads of pressure resulting in 17 shots and 2.24 xG.
City are the better team in front of goal, and that will be the German club's downfall.
Man City vs RB Leipzig: best bet
- Pick: Both teams to score — YES
- Odds: -120 ( BetMGM )
No Nkunku, no problem for RB Leipzig, who should be able to breach the Man City back line with both teams going all-out for the win. Emil Forsberg, Timo Werner, and Andre Silva are all in great form, with Forsberg netting in four straight league games and Andre Silva being nominated for January Player of the Month in the Bundesliga.
The over has no value in this match, but the two sides should both find themselves with good attacking moments in this game, especially given the first leg saw plenty of intent. RB Leipzig got a set-piece goal from Josko Gvardiol in the first leg and generated more good chances throughout the match, so they'll be primed for this match in England.
Man City vs RB Leipzig prop bet
- Pick: Riyad Mahrez anytime goalscorer
- Odds: +170 ( BetMGM )
Pep Guardiola has rotated Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez on the right wing to great effect this season, attempting to keep both players healthy yet in good form. While Foden has taken the lead in most Premier League matches over the past few months, Mahrez has been a go-to player in tournament play, thriving in the Champions League this year.
Mahrez has put up a similar shot volume across Premier League and Champions League play, but the quality of his chances vary greatly between the two competitions. Mahrez has collected 4.64 xG over 19 Premier League appearances, or about 0.39 xG per 90 minutes of play, but in Europe, that catapults to nearly 0.65 xG per 90 minutes, almost double his league total.
The Algerian scored the goal in the first leg, and there's no reason why he can't be the option again here at home as Man City look to finish off their German opponents.
Man City vs RB Leipzig flier bet
- Pick: Run of play — Lead-Draw
- Odds: +500 ( BetMGM )
While we think Man City will win this match, there is value on this pick at 5/1 odds. RB Leipzig lead the Bundesliga in second half expected goals with 27.32 xG, and they have the fifth-best second half expected goals against at 15.48 xGA. Somehow, Leipzig have not secured a single win from a losing position this season, one of only five Bundesliga clubs yet to do so, but that is more a fluke than anything.
The recent loss to Dortmund was a perfect example, as they pummeled BVB in the second half but just couldn't find the final ball. While there's excellent value on RB Leipzig to win from behind at +2200, that's a very tall order at longshot odds, so we'll stick with the slightly more reasonable Lead-Draw run of play bet which cashes if either team scores first and then succumbs to a draw through the 90 minutes of regulation.
Man City vs RB Leipzig live stream, TV channel
|USA||TUDN, Unimas||fuboTV , Paramount+, TUDN, ViX+|
|UK||BT Sport 1||BT Sport|
|New Zealand||—||Spark Sport|
|India||—||JioTV, Sony LIV|
|Hong Kong||beIN Sports 3||beIN Sports Connect|
|Malaysia||beIN Sports 3||beIN Sports Connect, sooka|
|Singapore||beIN Sports 3||beIN Sports Connect, StarHub TV+|