Do you feel that?
That little glimmer of hope you have in your chest. Those images of tournament dreams and March Madness magic dancing in front of your eyes. Is the Michigan men’s basketball team making you feel something again?
Don’t.
For your own sake, I’m begging you not to believe in this Michigan team. The Wolverines might be fun to watch — and feel free to continue to enjoy watching them — but expecting some last leg sprint-to-the-finish that ends with a berth in the NCAA Tournament will only set you up to get hurt.
Even after rattling off two straight wins against Northwestern and Ohio State, the numbers are objectively not in Michigan’s favor. As it stands, the Wolverines have a measly two Quad 1 wins — the holy grails when it comes to making the tournament — against Maryland and at Northwestern.
Looking across the rest of Michigan’s schedule, it has four opportunities for near-guaranteed Quad 1 games (vs Indiana, at Rutgers, at Illinois, at Indiana), and one that could potentially be a Quad 1 game (at Wisconsin). Then, of course, the Big Ten Tournament, which for the sake of argument let’s assume every game is Quad 1 (top 50 in the NET at a neutral site).
It seems like ample opportunities await. But opportunities are just that — opportunities. The Wolverines need to actually capitalize on those chances to add Quad 1 wins to their resume. So far, they haven’t shown the capacity to do so.
Think of all the squandered “almosts”: Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Iowa, Purdue — all possible Quad 1 wins. What has Michigan done recently that makes you think it will be different?
Was it the win over a skidding Buckeyes squad that’s lost nine out of their past 10 games? Or a win over a 57th-in-the-NET Wildcats group? Or was it the blowout, downright embarrassing loss to Penn State? There’s just not enough substance there to show the Wolverines are any different than before.
Now, here’s where the numbers get worse. Suppose Michigan has changed, and it can string a few wins together, and even beat some of the teams it needs to beat. The number of Quad 1 notches it’s going to need on its belt to make the NCAA Tournament will still be, in all likelihood, out of reach.
There’s no specific number, per se, but it’s safe to say the Wolverines will need at least five to punch their ticket to the Big Dance — at least.
That’s less a result of the Wolverines’ lack of Quad 1 wins, and more the result of their greatest blemish — an abysmal Quad 4 loss to No. 319 NET-ranked Central Michigan. While Quad 1 wins are holy grails, Quad 4 losses are eternal damnations. They float over teams like giant neon signs that say “Not a tournament team” in blaring red light.
While the teams carrying Quad 4 losses might not be inherently bad, it takes a lot to overcome those dings on the resume.
Last year, for example, Rutgers punched their ticket by the skin of their teeth. Making the play-in, the Scarlet Knights willed themselves to seven Quad 1 wins to overcome their season low-points. In a less extreme case, North Carolina needed five Quad 1 wins, and went undefeated in Quad 2 and 3, to make the tournament in spite of its Quad 4 loss. The Wolverines, too, were on bubble watch and needed five Quad 1 wins to book their trip to the tournament, even without a Quad 4 loss.
So theoretically, Michigan could reach that threshold of five coveted Quad 1 wins if it went on a tear to end the season. The Wolverines could even chain enough wins in a row in the Big Ten Tournament to take home the trophy and be an auto-bid team. But currently, Michigan is given a 16.7% chance to make the NCAA Tournament by TeamRankings.
Mathematically, the Wolverines aren’t eliminated. But let’s take a step back and be realistic:
Michigan hasn’t shown you anything that proves it will do what it takes to make it. There’s no signature win yet. There’s no consistency. And there’s no efficiency metrics that show Michigan is actually a good team behind a bad record.
There’s no real reason to have optimism.
So do yourself a favor and don’t get your hopes up. Because you’re just setting yourself up to get hurt.
Stoll can be reached at nkstoll@umich.edu and on Twitter @nkstoll.