Quarterback Derek Carr is in his final days with the Las Vegas Raiders and as the franchise continues to explore last-minute trades, the odds of him being released are increasing quickly.
The Raiders have until Feb. 15 to either trade or release Carr, otherwise, it takes on $40 million in cap charges over the next two seasons. It’s all tied to the contract extension he signed in 2022, which provided him with a no-trade clause and fully guaranteed his $32.9 million base salary in 2023 if he was still on the roster by Feb. 16.
Once Las Vegas decided to move on from its long-time starter, benching him before Week 17, it started the clock on a limited window to move him. While there are multiple NFL teams interested in Carr, the nature of the situation has wiped away the Raiders’ leverage in negotiations.
- Derek Carr stats (2022): 86.3 QB rating, 24-14 TD-INT, 60.8% completion rate
Carr and rival NFL teams both hold the power over Las Vegas. Opposing general managers can bow out of trade talks, waiting until Carr is inevitably released by Feb. 15 and then pursuing him in free agency. Meanwhile, the veteran quarterback can block any deal that the Raiders make with another club, putting the organization in a spot with no real control.
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Mike Garafolo and Jim Trotter of NFL Network both believe the odds of Carr being traded are less than 1%. Part of the reason is reportedly that Las Vegas won’t allow Carr to talk to teams who are interested in acquiring him unless they meet the Raiders’ asking price in a trade.
“I heard our Jim Trotter earlier today say the chances of Derek Carr agreeing to a trade are less than 1%. I spoke to a source informed who said, “Maybe if you throw in Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller to go with him as well, maybe then it will get to 1%.”
Mike Garafolo on the likelihood of Derek Carr being traded
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After being benched by the franchise that drafted him, Carr isn’t willing to do the Raiders any favors. The best move he can make for his career is to hit the open market, allowing the four-time Pro Bowl selection to meet one-on-one with NFL teams before finding the right fit.
While the New York Jets have been mentioned as a potential suitor, their interest in pursuing a trade likely makes Carr a backup plan that they don’t want to pursue immediately. However, multiple NFC South teams are expected to make a run at Carr.
Once Carr is released, Las Vegas will need to conduct its own quarterback search. Following the retirement of Tom Brady, the Raiders’ top options barring a trade are Jarrett Stidham, Gardner Minshew, Jimmy Garoppolo or hoping one of the top 2023 NFL Draft QB prospects falls to the No. 7 pick.
