5 Must-Dos for Broncos' First Offseason With Sean Payton
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The Denver Broncos hired Sean Payton as their new head coach, sending draft pick compensation to the New Orleans Saints in the process. Though I was not in favor of hiring Payton, I do hope he and Broncos ownership prove me wrong.
With that said, the question becomes what to do when approaching the 2023 offseason and building the team. It's tempting to go out into free agency and chase after players to fill every need. And, yes, I recommended utilizing free agency last offseason when the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson.
However, this time around, the Broncos have to be careful with free agency. While it's true the Broncos gave up a first-round pick in 2023 for Payton, there are two factors to keep in mind about the team's situation.
First, the Broncos can't say with certainty what will happen with Wilson in 2023. Remember that when Denver first acquired Wilson, it took on the remaining two years of the contract he signed with the Seattle Seahawks. That came at a lower cost.
But the Broncos later extended Wilson, and, as I've previously discussed, they must be careful moving forward. While moving on in 2024 would come with some pain, it will be impossible to move on if the injury protections for his 2025 salary come into play.
Second, it's likely to be a weak group of free agents available for 2023. While the Broncos have ownership that may be more inclined to spend money, you don't spend it on players who aren't worth the money.
The Broncos need both cap flexibility and draft capital in 2024 if things don't pan out with Wilson. That way, the team is in a better position to find players in the draft that Payton likes, plus there may be better options available in free agency.
This doesn't mean the Broncos can't explore free agency at all. Instead, it means the Broncos shouldn't go 'all in,' hoping that Payton will make everything work out.
The Broncos need to find players who will fit Payton's offense but need to be smart about how they utilize their resources. The Broncos also need to remember that they didn't make the playoffs in 2022, so they need to think of 2023 as a team that is not a playoff contender until proven otherwise.
Therefore, much has stayed the same regarding how I would approach the Broncos 2023 offseason, other than finding players who fit what Payton and his coaching staff want.
Let's go over what the Broncos need to do this offseason.
1. Get a Contingency Plan at Quarterback
The Broncos may hope that Payton can get Wilson back on track, but they can't assume that's what will happen. Therefore, they still need a contingency plan.
Adding a veteran quarterback to be the backup must be considered unless Payton believes Brett Rypien (a restricted free agent) can be that player. One QB that may come to mind is Teddy Bridgewater, who may be open to returning to the Broncos to play for Payton.
Regardless of who the backup is, the Broncos need to look at drafting a QB on day 3 of the NFL draft. The Broncos can bench him if Wilson struggles and get somebody else to hold the fort down. Thus, avoid Wilson's 2025 injury-only guaranteed salary from becoming fully guaranteed.
2. Don't Restructure Contracts
It will be tempting to restructure contracts (converting base salary or roster bonus into signing bonus) to gain cap space. But my advice can be summed up in three words: Don't do it.
If things don't go as planned in 2023, then 2024 should be a time to clear the decks and get more players who fit what Payton and his coaching staff want. The Broncos' deals are structured so they can move on from multiple players in 2024 if there are any issues.
It's okay to renegotiate salaries, in which money is converted into incentives. But the Broncos need the flexibility to cut players in 2024 if it comes to that, which makes restructuring a terrible idea.
3. Consider Trading a Player but Don't Force it to Happen
The Broncos do have some players that some have mentioned at Mile High Huddle as potential offseason trade candidates. It would help to get some additional draft capital.
However, the Broncos should refrain from taking any old offer. One should also remember that moving multiple players in off-season trades only sometimes happens.
The Broncos also want to make sure they get value in return. That comes down to determining what the player is actually worth in a trade. Also, it's essential to ask whether the player indeed does have a future with the Broncos.
4. Look for Value in Free Agency
Given that it's not a strong group of free agents and that several teams will enter 2023 with a lot of cap space, the Broncos need to pick their spots in free agency.
The Broncos should look at offensive linemen but watch how much money they commit. While a couple of players may be worth deals toward the top of the market, others are not. They shouldn't overpay for an offensive lineman to show they made a move.
Running back and off-ball linebacker are two positions in which big money could come into play, but the Broncos need to be careful there. It's been demonstrated many times that teams should look for value in that position, and when they do, they can still get a quality player.
5. Trade Down in the Draft if Possible
GM George Paton has traded down in the third round each of his two seasons with the Broncos. It would be a good idea to do so again.
The Broncos have just five picks, but a trade down in the third round could give the Broncos additional picks to find players who might help the team.
If a player is there that the Broncos can't pass up, then take him. Otherwise, they should do what they can to get more picks and young talent.
Bottom Line
The Broncos need to ensure they have the flexibility to build the team in 2024 and beyond, depending on what happens in 2023. Denver has yet to be in a position to swing for a deep playoff run.
Therefore, the Broncos must ensure their cap is in a good position for 2024 and that they have draft capital available. This maximizes the flexibility to improve the team that year.
If things work out with Wilson in 2024 and he thrives under Payton, the Broncos can be more aggressive in free agency and trade for a player. If not, they can focus on the draft instead.
Remember that while the Broncos have playoff expectations for 2023, they have yet to prove they will get there. Thus, they can't keep taking big swings this offseason. They already made a big swing with Payton — now it's time for a more practical approach.
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