Brownlow: Saturday's matchup marks the beginning of a new Carolina-Duke era
Posted February 3, 2023
Imagine you are replacing Mike Krzyzewski as coach at Duke and on the eve of your first Duke-Carolina game as the head man, you get the absolute blessing that was the media fallout from UNC's loss to Pitt and the postgame ... kerfuffle? Are we calling it that? But seriously, it's a nice way to ease into it for Jon Scheyer. And if you feel like there hasn't been as much buzz around this year's first Battle of the Blues, it's probably because UNC has a new rival now, which is Pittsburgh. I don't make the rules.
Although to be fair, maybe it's just teams coached by somewhat recent Duke assistants? UNC has four home losses since 2020 and half of them are to Pitt, one more to Duke and one more to Marquette. That was still Steve Wojciechowski's Marquette. Just saying.
Pitt is 3-1 in the last three seasons against UNC and Duke is 2-5. But every year is a new year for Duke, and as usual with seemingly both Duke and North Carolina this time of year, we're still figuring out who they are. Maybe they are, too.
Duke hasn't won more than three games in a row since the calendar still read 2022. But do you remember that thing where Duke used to go entire seasons without losing at home? With admittedly plenty of season to go, this is the first time Duke has still been undefeated at home in February since 2014.
Will Duke have revenge on its minds after last year's two heartbreaking defeats in both of Coach K's finales? I mean, maybe. Probably at least a little bit. But in some ways it feels like all that happened years ago, right? That could just be the way time moves for me during long COVID, but it was all just so much and so intense in such a short stretch of time, and then it was just .... over. Last year, games against Duke propelled Hubert Davis' team to reach another gear, and the Tar Heels never had any issue bringing their best against the Blue Devils. Will that keep going, or will some of UNC's struggles this season come back to haunt them? Or is this where they get right?
Only time will tell.
So let's get to the GIFs!
NORTH CAROLINA (15-7, 7-4 ACC) AT DUKE (16-6, 7-4 ACC)
Time: 6:30 p.m.
TV: ESPN
#ANALYSIS
If Cameron is looking for another expansion project, it's possible both teams can help with all the bricks that could potentially be bouncing around in there. Because speaking of things we aren't used to seeing, Duke has struggled making 3-pointers this year, ranking 252nd nationally at 32.5 percent. It's Duke's second-worst percentage since 1996 at least (as far back as Ken Pomeroy goes). But it's been improving in recent weeks, and Duke is 13-1 this year when it makes more than a third of its 3-point attempts. The Blue Devils have shot 35.3% or better for four straight games now.
Good news for Duke, though, is that UNC is worse. With as good as Carolina became at shooting 3-pointers a year ago, the Tar Heels haven't quite figured it out this year. A lot of the same shooters are there except for Brady Manek, of course, and that's no small caveat. But Carolina is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country this year (31.1%) after finishing 60th a year ago. Carolina is actually undefeated this year when it has accomplished the seemingly-small feat of making over a third of its 3-point tries. But unfortunately, that has only happened seven times. To put it in perspective with last year's group, they were over 33% 26 times in 39 games.
UNC would love to make some 3s, of course. But they can't fall in love with that shot. Defenses are giving it to them for a reason. You know what the reason is? They'd rather not let Armando Bacot have the ball down low without an immediate double team coming his way. UNC hasn't been able to take advantage of those double teams well enough to discourage them, and at times, the Tar Heels have just been content to jack up jumpers instead of getting the ball inside to Bacot. Bacot has had some great games against Duke in his career, but especially in his last trip to Cameron when he put up 23 points on 10 of 11 shooting. But this year, Duke will have several big bodies to throw at him and those big bodies will be just as willing to get physical in the post as Bacot will be. UNC can't go away from Bacot just because teams want them to, though.
And honestly, the most fascinating part of this game will be when shots go up. The battles in the paint will be epic, and both teams will absolutely have to be the first to rebounds on both ends. Duke is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, but UNC is one of the best defensive rebounding teams. Duke is 4-4 this year when it has rebounded less than a third of its missed shots and 12-2 when it exceeds that mark, and Carolina has only allowed a team to do that three times all season. Duke's a pretty good defensive rebounding team as well, ranking 58th nationally, but the Blue Devils are 4-5 when allowing opponents to rebound at least 29% of their misses and 14-1 when it's less than that.
UNC has been under 29% plenty this season, and it's not like it's always helped when they do rebound well offensively — the Tar Heels retrieved a season-high 41.3% of their misses in Wednesday's loss to Pitt. You have to make second chances count. Both teams do.
NAMES TO KNOW
Caleb Love. Sure, we'd all think that in a game like this, Armando Bacot and getting the ball inside will be a huge key. Or R.J. Davis, who's developed into such a consistent backcourt playmaker for the Tar Heels. But it's the Red Hot Chili Peppers' "Love Rollercoaster", really. And throughout his career so far, every time Love sees Duke blue, it's a roller-coaster UNC fans absolutely want to ride.
During the COVID-riddled freshman campaign for Love, the roller-coaster was ... OK here's where this metaphor falls apart for me, maybe because I don't like roller-coasters. Is it good to be going up or going down? I'm assuming I'm seconds from death and hanging on in sheer terror either way. But Love was struggling as many freshmen point guards at UNC have, unable to get his 3-point shooting stroke going, struggling to finish around the basket and with a less than ideal assist/turnover ratio. All of a sudden, the Duke game hits and Love sets a new season high (25 points) with a season-high in made 3-pointers (4). Between the first and second Duke games, Love totaled 42 points in six games and scored 20 combined in the next four games after his pointsplosion in Durham. He did finish the year hitting double figures in six of UNC's final seven games, and two of those were against Duke. He had 18 in the rematch, another UNC win.
All told, Love has averaged 20.2 points in five UNC-Duke games (in addition to being the hero of the Final Four matchup) and 23.3 points in four UNC wins. The one Duke win over his career came when Love had just eight points on 3 of 10 shooting and picked up four fouls in the first meeting last year in Chapel Hill. His 3-point shooting against the Blue Devils hasn't stayed as good as it was his freshman year, but in every UNC win over Duke in that span, he's either finished well around the basket or gotten to the foul line a lot. Or both.
It's not always easy to quantify Love's meaning to the Tar Heels. Davis stepping up has meant he hasn't had as much of the ball-handling or scoring responsibilities. He's always going to be a little turnover-prone. When he's off, he's not as off as he used to be. But the highs haven't been quite as high, either, although he's shown flashes. The consistency from Love is what a lot of UNC fans expected in his junior season and it just hasn't been there. He was on fire during the majority of last year's NCAA Tournament run and before, and since his combined 40 points in consecutive non-con wins over Ohio State and Michigan, he's been more down than up overall. In ACC play, he's shooting just 28.4% from 3 and 28.6% on the season after shooting 36% overall and 37.6% in league play last year. For a team in desperate need of perimeter shooting, UNC would sure "Love" to see him regain his shooting form and help the offense space out better and get the ball inside to Bacot as much as they'd like.
Jeremy Roach. Yes, Duke has a plethora of talented freshmen, again. And yes, some of them are either coming into their own or getting fully healthy or both right about now, including Roach's backcourt mate Tyrese Proctor. But experience matters, and especially in this rivalry. Roach definitely has it.
A bit like Love, Roach really came into his own as a force for Duke, scoring at least nine points in eight of Duke's final nine games in 2022 and noticeably looking comfortable and confident. He started this season that way too, but was slowed down by a toe injury. In Duke's first four ACC games, Roach shot 20.5% and averaged 7 points, knocking down 5 of 16 3s but just 2 of 18 2-pointers. He missed the next three games (Duke went 2-1 in his absence) and since his return in the home win over Miami, Roach has averaged 13.3 points on 50% shooting, finishing both around the basket and from distance. In the five ACC wins Roach has played in, he has averaged 12.4 points on 43.4% shooting (47.8% from 3) and in the three losses, he averaged 6.3 points on 24% shooting and just 1 of 10 from 3.
Duke will need a steady hand in this game, yes. And Roach gives them that. But he also leads Duke in 3-pointers made this season and for a team that has struggled to make them consistently, his ability to do that would be a huge asset. He'll also need to help set the tone defensively because his backcourt teammates are tall and athletic defenders, and they have the ability to disrupt Carolina's offense in a way Duke didn't a year ago.
NARRATIVES
UNC Win:
UNC Loss: Sure, this loss makes UNC's margin for error the rest of the way slimmer and it's a loss to Duke, but after last year, it's all gravy anyway, right? The rivalry is over anyway, RIGHT?
Duke Win:
Duke Loss: I'm sure this would be disappointing to Duke fans. But after last year, do you really think you can hurt them anymore?
PREDICTION
UNC, 77-69. Full disclosure: I have no idea. I really don't. The only thing that I do know? UNC has generally responded well this year when it seems like they've hit a low point. Oh and I picked against UNC in all three games last year and was wrong twice. I also think the teams will split their regular-season meetings this year and I think Duke will win in Chapel Hill.