The NBA is a stone's throw away from the 2023 trade deadline, which can mean only one thing: It's time to start putting some of our crystal-ball musings in Sharpie.

Or, you know, at least erasable pen.

These predictions prioritize accuracy over everything. There is a time and place for stepping out on a limb. We've visited it before. This isn't it.

Don't worry, though. This exercise won't be drowning in copouts and vague nothings. Most predictions will be specific. If they're not, they'll be more exact scenarios and trade targets baked into the larger discussion for said team.

And rest assured, more than a few of these last-minute prognostications will be gut-feeling doozies—bold in nature, yet genuine in conviction.

Let us now wade gleefully, and head first, back into the slop.

Atlanta Hawks

Prediction: John Collins gets dealt to the Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, Utah Jazz or not at all.

Forcecasting a non-move is almost always the safest bet. This isn't necessarily one of those times.

Collins has been on the trade block for, in my estimation, six to 12 eternities. The Atlanta Hawks are playing better since their four-game losing streak—top-seven offense over their last 15 tilts—but he remains an awkward, currently marginalized fit who needs to hit more of his threes. The balance on his contract (three years, $78.5 million) must also factor into the calculus for a team that just extended De'Andre Hunter, already paid Trae Young and needs to start thinking about new deals for Bogdan Bogdanović (player option), Dejounte Murray (2024 free agent who won't sign an extension) and Onyeka Okongwu (extension-eligible this summer).

Sources told The Athletic's Sam Amick the Hawks have dropped their asking price for Collins as a result. They apparently don't even need a first-round pick to strike a deal; just a quality player.

Both the Clippers and Jazz can rather effortlessly meet those demands. The Pacers (should) loom after extending Myles Turner, the perfect front-line partner for Collins. They don't possess an immediate impact wing or forward to throw Atlanta's way, but they have cap space to work with ($10.7 million) as well as two extra firsts in this year's draft (from Boston and Cleveland) to facilitate the Hawks' bookkeeping.

I still can't bring myself to predict a Collins trade. I'd actually bet against one at this point. If the Hawks want to make any noise this year, he remains too valuable just to dump for an OK package headlined by serviceable-yet-unspectacular players on cheaper contracts. This feels like a situation that'll be re-addressed, for the umpteenth time, over the offseason when Atlanta has a better idea of who it is and luxury-tax concerns reach fever pitch.

Boston Celtics

Prediction: Payton Pritchard and/or second-round picks will be used to acquire another big.

Few, if any, teams can truly call themselves a finished product right now. The Boston Celtics might actually be the only one.

Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Grant Williams and Robert Williams III give them the league's most bankable eight-man rotation. Boston technically stretches nine every-matchup players deep depending on how you feel about Pritchard or Sam Hauser. This team can do nothing and be perfectly fine.

Then again, RW3 is no stranger to injury. And Al Horford, while seemingly ageless, is 36. That the Celtics have needed to rely semi-meaningfully on Luke Kornet, at all, is unsettling when projecting past the regular season.

Let's go ahead and assume they scoop up another big at the deadline to fortify their front line.

It won't be a major-ish acquisition in the vein of Jakob Poeltl that necessitates the inclusion of a 2025 first-rounder. It probably won't even be a deal that sees them use their $5.9 million traded player exception (expires Feb. 10) without jettisoning other money in the process. But it will be a move that sees them use some combination of Pritchard, Danilo Gallinari's contract (2023-24 player option) and second-rounders to reel in someone like Naz Reid, Mason Plumlee or Isaiah Hartenstein.

Brooklyn Nets

Prediction: Some combination of Joe Harris, Seth Curry, Patty Mills, Day'Ron Sharpe and Cam Thomas gets traded for a big.

Acquiring a larger human who can hit his free throws tops the Brooklyn Nets' trade-deadline to-do list. That could be difficult without any (readily) expendable first-round picks in their treasure chest.

It's not impossible.

Brooklyn can start by gauging the market for lethally sharpshooters in Harris ($19.9 million salary for 2023-24) and soon-to-be free agent Curry. Parting with either one will sting if the team doesn't plan to bring back Kyrie Irving next year. It is much less painful if the Nets intend to re-sign him.

Mills' $6.5 million salary is right in line with backup-big money, as well. His $6.8 million price point for next season is currently a net negative, but attaching him to Day'Ron Sharpe, Cam Thomas and/or second-rounders might be enough to enter the running for Mo Bamba, Zach Collins, Richaun Holmes, Mason Plumlee and others.

Charlotte Hornets

Prediction: Three or more 2023 free agents will be dealt

Counting on a Charlotte Hornets fire sale is far from mindless. They don't need to shed talent in the name of sucking. They are emperors of The Full-Strength Suck™.

Savvy organizations in this position would shop their most notable soon-to-be free agents anyway. If past is prologue, though, the Hornets will dream of adding a top lottery pick and retaining a swathe of its middling supporting cast and firing up another run at the seven-to-10 seed next year.

However!

This time seems different. Three of the Hornets' four most important free agents will hit the unrestricted market and are demonstrative flight risks: Jalen McDaniels, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Mason Plumlee. The other, P.J. Washington, will be a restricted free agent but could fetch a handsome payday from one of the cap-space squads who project as squeaky-clean fits (Detroit, Indiana, Oklahoma City, etc.).

McDaniels, Oubre and Plumlee are the no-brainer picks to be moved. I still wouldn't rule out a Washington deal. A dearth of sellers may allow the Hornets to capitalize on his value as a floor-stretcher who can put the ball on the deck and work from the elbows, and they have little business footing the bill of his next contract if it's going to exceed the $16-million-per-year range.

Chicago Bulls

Prediction: The Chicago Bulls will delay the inevitiable.

Many, many, many sets of eyeballs are on the Bulls heading into the Feb. 9 transaction curfew. Will they trade Alex Caruso? Or Nikola Vučević? Does anyone even want Nikola Vučević? Could DeMar DeRozan become available in the eleventh hour? Or maybe Zach LaVine? Isn't Ayo Dosunmu a(n Early Bird restricted) free agent this summer?! Patrick Williams has to be gettable, right? Will a team come in and roll the dice on Lonzo Ball and the two years and $41.9 million he's owed?

Pondering the controlled destination of these Bulls is fun. It's not predictive. Chicago has yet to give any indication it will punt on this season despite entering Feb. 2 games as the Eastern Conference's No. 11 seed. Its first-round pick obligation to Orlando (top-four protection) renders a midseason teardown uniquely unappealing.

Organizations who practice the ancient art of "Actual Forethought" would right off this experiment-gone-astray as a sunk cost and look to reload the asset cupboard and drum up flexibility for the future. The Bulls have never really been that team. They're not about to start now.

Maybe Chicago moves Coby White (restricted free agent this summer) or Goran Dragic or Andre Drummond. It will be a genuine, jaw-dropping surprise if it has the stomach to deal any of the "core" players.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: Neither Caris LeVert nor Isaac Okoro gets moved, but the Cleveland Cavaliers will still bag a wing.

No Cavs trade-deadline prediction would be complete without mentioning how they could stand to upgrade their wing rotation with a higher-volume shooter who doesn't nuke their defense.

However!

While pairing Caris LeVert's expiring contract with Isaac Okoro (one year left on his rookie scale) might wedge them into splashier negotiations, the Cavs aren't desperate enough to chase a caps-lock HAUL at the expense of two rotation players.

LeVert is having a career year from deep and adds a layer of shot creation that could come in handy during the postseason. Okoro's offense can't be trusted in a playoff setting, but he is downing 45.3 percent of his triples over the past 20-plus games and helps prop up the defense of lineups headlined by two smaller guards.

The Cavs are not without alternative options. Cedi Osman (non-guaranteed next year), Dylan Windler and second-rounders should get them into Josh Richardson range. They might also be able to afford a flier on Cam Reddish or Jalen McDaniels.

Rest assured, Cleveland will do something. It just won't be of the Gary Trent Jr. or Malik Beasley persuasion—insofar as similarly sized moves are even a possibility.

Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: Any move the Dallas Mavericks make will NOT net a top-six rotation player.

Dorian Finney-Smith is available! Sort of.

Rival teams have "gotten the impression that Dallas would be open to moving the 29-year-old in the right deal for a star-caliber player," according to The Athletic's Shams Charania. Phrased another way: Finney-Smith isn't readily available because the Mavs aren't trading for a star.

That blockbuster market doesn't exist at the moment. This could change for the Feb. 9 deadline, but even if it does, Dallas isn't equipped to enter the to-be-determined sweepstakes. It doesn't have any blue-chip prospects to peddle as centerpieces, and the 2023 draft obligation to New York (top-10 protection) precludes the front office from dangling a first-rounder earlier than 2025.

Conjuring blockbuster scenarios will be easier over the summer. Teams are more prepared to make wholesale decisions out-of-season, and by then, the Mavs will have the bandwidth to offer up four first-rounders and three swaps. That Godfather package is their most likely path to nabbing—and outbidding other suitors—for a marquee player.

In the meantime, Dallas will prowl around for upgrades, because it must. It has Luka Dončić. But the odds of landing someone more useful than Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Maxi Kleber (when healthy) or Christian Wood aren't great.

Denver Nuggets

Prediction: Bones Hyland stays put.

Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer recently reported that the Denver Nuggets were open to moving their firecracker guard. NBA insider Marc Stein confirmed this, ahem, nugget while noting that Hyland is "suddenly regarded as one of the league's most likely players to be dealt before the Feb. 9 buzzer."

So, yeah, this escalated quickly.

And yet, a Hyland trade still doesn't seem particularly likely. He doesn't make nearly enough to bring back conventionally priced impact players on his own ($2.2 million), and the Nuggets aren't drowning in dispensable salary-matching tools. Expiring contracts for Jeff Green ($4.5 million) and Ish Smith ($4.7 million) are the most expendable fillers.

Denver does have a $9.1 million traded player exception (expires July 6) it can use to grease the wheels. Whether the suits upstairs will go deeper into the luxury tax as part of a lopsided-money deal is debatable.

Perhaps they will for the right player. Who's the right player? And is he available? And is Hyland alone enough to bag him? Are the Nuggets open to including Christian Braun or Peyton Watson or Zeke Nnaji to nudge up their return?

Failing the sudden availability of a defensive-minded wing on a like-sized salary, the obstacles incumbent of a trade like this are too daunting. And even if such a player hits the block (Jaden McDaniels?), Denver won't register as the top bidder unless the other side is smitten with the equal parts tantalizing and erratic Bones.

Detroit Pistons

Prediction: Bojan Bogdanović gets traded for a king's ransom.

Rebuffing offers that include unprotected first-round picks in exchange for Bogdanović screams "Grade A posturing" by the Detroit Pistons.

Except, what if it doesn't?

Detroit can carve out over $30 million in cap space this summer if it declines various team options. It will also be adding a top lottery pick and healthy Cade Cunningham to the mix next year, on top of more seasoned versions of Jalen Duren, Killian Hayes and Jaden Ivey. The temptation, if not pressure, to rejoin the playoff hunt will be real.

Bogdanović will be instrumental to any instant leaps for which the Pistons angle. His scoring is both critical and infinitely scalable. He is shooting 56.0 percent on drives and drilling 47.1 percent of his catch-and-fire threes, all while checking in as an above-average bucket-getter out of iso possessions. Having him under team control for another two years is massive.

Other teams will think so, too. And that invariably works in Detroit's favor—or at the very least against its idea of prioritizing next season over the larger picture. The Pistons don't need to move Bogdanović, but the assumption here is they will end up getting over-the-top offers in a seller's market that they just can't refuse.

Golden State Warriors

Prediction: Moses Moody is the kiddie most likely to be rerouted.

Props to anyone who believes the reigning champion Golden State Warriors can just flip a switch and re-enter title mode without making any changes. I can't get there. They need to make a move—preferably for a high-impact bigger wing, but at the bare minimum for a playoff upgrade over the Anthony Lamb minutes.

Years of evidence suggest the Warriors will do nothing—that they will trust their process and internal evaluations and hopes unless boxed into a corner. That remains the most likely outcome.

It feels telltale that they haven't been tangibly linked to O.G. Anunoby despite having Jonathan Kuminga to include in prospective packages. James Wiseman is eminently expendable to the current core, but Golden State, to date, seems ill-prepared to accept the L on its No. 2 pick in 2020.

Trading Moses Moody represents the middle ground. Pulling the ripcord on his development doesn't bruise the ego as much as dealing Wiseman does. And unlike Kuminga, the Warriors aren't relying on him now. They can ship him out for a cheap non-star, including options who may be in contract years, without facing much pushback from the masses.

Finding the right deal is nevertheless hard. Moody makes just $3.7 million, and Golden State isn't teeming with dispensable salary-matching contracts. But this isn't meant to augur a Moody trade. It's a nod to what seems most likely if the Warriors actually, mercifully do anything.

Houston Rockets

Prediction: Eric Gordon will, at long last, be shipped out.

There is a hint of "Well, duh" to this one. At the same time, Gordon has been on the chopping block since James Harden was sent to Brooklyn...more than two years ago.

Sticking with the Houston Rockets beyond the trade deadline is more plausible than many care to admit. He isn't securing a first-round pick on his own. That ship has sailed. And his salary number is so large ($19.6 million) the Rockets can't reroute him as part of a smaller trade.

Complicated still, the market isn't conducive to flipping him for expiring money alone. Contenders forking over value for a 34-year-old may want to tack on longer-term money to any potential agreement.

It isn't clear whether the Rockets are open to swallowing deals that extend beyond this season. They are slated for over $50 million in cap space this summer and have extra incentive to aim for win-now moves with their 2024 first-rounder headed to Oklahoma City under top-four protection.

Houston may decide it is more prudent to buy out Gordon. That would be a mistake. And it's one the Rockets won't make, because it would be that dumb. They will move Gordon. Somewhere. Finally. Whether the Rockets pick up a first-round pick or prospect in the process depends on the inbound money they're digesting and/or other assets they're sending out (Kenyon Martin Jr., Jae'Sean Tate).

Indiana Pacers

Prediction: The Indiana Pacers will trade for Saddiq Bey, John Collins, Jalen McDaniels, Davon Reed, Cam Reddish, Obi Toppin or P.J. Washington.

How's this for being vague and specific at the same time?

Myles Turner can still be traded following his renegotiate-and-extend agreement with the Pacers. He won't be. At least, after the team dislocated its shoulder while patting itself on the back for signing Turner to stay put, he better not be.

Indiana is more of an opportunistic buyer. It tumbled to the bottom of the play-in picture during Tyrese Haliburton's absence, but that only means it's one winning streak away from the seventh seed.

Entering talent-acquisition mode also isn't just about this season. It's more so about next year and beyond. The Pacers are never ones to wallow near the bottom for long, and extending Turner implies a certain commitment to the immediate.

Armed with $10.7 million in cap space and two extra first-round picks in this year's draft, Indiana has the tools to try addressing its most glaring needs: clarity at the 4 and more size on the wings.

Coming away with Collins will be tough without bringing in a third team unless Atlanta is functionally drawn to Chris Duarte or Buddy Hield. Everyone else listed above is far more realistic if the Pacers are looking for fliers or, in some cases, willing to part with their 2023 first-rounders from Cleveland (lottery protection) and/or Boston (top-12 protection).

L.A. Clippers

Prediction: Terance Mann and/or a future first-round pick (2028 or 2029) will be sent out in service of a bigger swing.

Imagining a trade deadline at which the L.A. Clippers do nothing notable evokes powerful pangs of sadness.

So, let's not do it.

The Clippers remain all over the place. Their offense has dramatically improved since Jan. 1, but it has coincided with bottom-three returns on defense. They enter games on Feb. 2 in possession of the West's No. 4 seed, but they've inflated their record with wins over San Antonio (twice), the Lakers and frowny-face Chicago to do it.

Pulling off something nuclear isn't necessary. It would also be somewhat ignorant to do nothing. The Clippers could straddle the middle ground, but more nuclear hypotheticals aren't out of the question if a future first-round pick and/or Mann is on the table.

Most other organizations facing a $144-plus million luxury-tax bill might shy from a seismic midseason shake-up or addition that tacks on to its expenses. The Clippers aren't most organizations.

Steve Ballmer is the closest the NBA gets to a money-is-actually-no-object team governor. If the Clippers have an opportunity to add a floor general who can play away from the ball and defend, a big who can back up and/or play beside Ivica Zubac or perimeter rim pressure, they will pony up. And for the sake of an active trade deadline, we're going to assume that opportunity presents itself.

Los Angeles Lakers

Prediction: Those 2027 and 2029 first-round picks aren't going anywhere.

Just about every Lakers fan in existence wants the team to make a bigger move. They are—*heavy eye roll—caretakers of LeBron Jame's legacy, after all. Signing him to an extension ahead of his age-38 season only to not maximize his playing at an All-NBA level is franchise malpractice in its most egregious form.

But the time for the Lakers to do something, anything, on the massive end of the spectrum was approximately forever ago. The star-trade market is nonexistent, and L.A.'s top shelf offer (salary, two firsts and two swaps) can be easily beaten unless someone (like Bradley Beal) is dead set on getting their way to Hollywood.

This does not shield the Lakers against total inaction. They need to be in on any and all properly sized wings who don't command first-round equity. (Josh Richardson, Jalen McDaniels, Cam Reddish, etc.)

More aspirational transactions are, at this point, best left for the summer. The Lakers can still chisel out upward of $30 million in cap space, and waiting will open up the ability to trade their 2030 first-rounder at a time when teams will be more inclined to make directional decisions.

Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: The Memphis Grizzlies will NOT make a big move, but if they do, it will be for Bojan Bogdanović or Kyle Kuzma and NOT O.G. Anunoby.

Memphis should be open to making a gargantuan splash. It has the league's top defense and owns the West's No. 2 seed but also sports a losing conference record and a bottom-10 half-court offense begging for someone beyond Desmond Bane and Ja Morant to consistently create and make shots.

Timeline acceleration has not been the Grizzlies' style under the current regime. This season should be different. They aren't plucky, out-of-nowhere, overachieving Cinderellas. They are entrenched irritants officially up against the burden of expectations.

Anything Memphis can do to beef up the Santi Aldama/Ziaire Williams/David Roddy/John Konchar minutes should be fair game. Well, almost anything.

Forking over the moon for O.G. Anunoby has mutated from trendy to seemingly prevailing option. And...that's awkward. Anunoby doesn't move the needle nearly enough as a half-court creator or even higher-volume three-point shooter. The Grizzlies are better off poking around Kyle Kuzma (player option) or Bogdanović (matching salary gets thorny)—assuming, of course, they do anything at all.

Miami Heat

Prediction: Dewayne Dedmon will be offloaded to increase maneuverability beneath the luxury tax.

This is not a flashy prediction, and make no mistake, the Miami Heat's offense could use someone flashy. But the logistics that go into completing a glittery transaction are too complicated.

Bringing back a substantive player will most likely require the Heat to send out Kyle Lowry (one year, $29.7 million) or Duncan Robinson (three years, $57.5 million). Neither is an asset at their current price point. Moving Lowry profiles as an offseason chore, when he's an expiring contract, and any Robinson package must also include compensation for taking on the balance of his agreement.

Miami has multiple first-round picks it can technically trade—2023, 2027 and 2029—as well as Nikola Jović. But the most talked-about names on the auction block don't warrant that type of all-in investment, and it doesn't make much sense to short-sell or pay a fee to unload Lowry or Robinson without a major rotation piece coming back.

That brings us to Dedmon. He barely plays and doesn't seem too happy, and turning his $4.7 million salary into a smaller number will afford Miami more wiggle room under the tax—which it's currently inside $200,000 of hitting. That extra breathing room will come in handy on the buyout market or in conjunction with other trades.

Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction: The long-rumored Jae Crowder trade finally gets done.

League sources told The Athletic's Shams Charania that the Milwaukee Bucks were "given permission" to speak with Crowder, presumably to discuss whether he wanted to stick around long-term or was simply interested in playing a stopgap part for them until entering free agency. That meeting doesn't happen if Milwaukee isn't a favorite to land him.

How the trade finally gets done is beyond me. The Bucks have hocked packages built around "Jordan Nwora, George Hill, Serge Ibaka and second-round draft compensation," according to Charania. This type of hodgepodge, three-for-one, second-round-heavy deal is straight from an offhanded Reddit comment by user "bucks4ever414" and does little to help the Phoenix Suns' in-season aspirations.

(Aside: Please don't spin Nwora as some microwave-scoring diamond in the rough. He is logging afterthought minutes for a Milwaukee squad in need of just that.)

Expect a third and maybe fourth team to get involved. Or maybe for the Bucks to expand the deal, increase their return and consider parting with Grayson Allen or their 2029 first-round pick.

Whatever the avenue, Crowder will land in Milwaukee. Probably.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: Neither Naz Reid nor D'Angelo Russell gets traded.

Letting Reid and Russell head into free agency is a risky gambit for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Both could simply leave for larger roles or more money.

Compensation isn't an issue if the Timberwolves don't care about the luxury tax. (Which, um, yeah.) The context of their roles is less controllable.

Minnesota is in the process of turning its offense over to Anthony Edwards, which might not sit well with Russell. Reid has no path to a higher-volume role so long as both Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns are on the team.

The Timberwolves can't afford to care. They're unlikely to get equal value back for either player, and both have played pivotal parts in the team's recent turnaround. Minnesota owns a top-seven net rating and top-two defense since the turn of the calendar, during which time Reid has played like a 6'9" guard and Russell has swished 45.6 percent of his 7.8 three-point attempts per game. (D-Lo also hasn't seen a noticeable downtick in his touches compared to last season, though his usage and assist rate have dipped.)

Keeping both, waiting for Gobert and Towns to return and hoping this group makes a late-season run is the higher-reward course. That thinking changes if Reid or Russell declares himself a goner. Assuming that doesn't happen, the Timberwolves are better off bankrolling their next deals and pondering potential trades, if necessary, during the middle of next season.

New Orleans Pelicans

Prediction: They will part with a wing and/or first-round pick for shooting.

Pegging the New Orleans Pelicans as buyers, let alone aggressive seekers of costly talent, is counterintuitive at first blush. They have plummeted to 10th in the Western Conference and are 3-14, with the 29th-ranked offense outside garbage time, since the start of January.

Having assets to burn is one thing. Doubling down on a draft-lottery candidate is another—and often a complete waste of time.

Yet, the Pelicans' free fall is not without viable explanation. Zion Williamson has appeared in just one game over this span due to a hamstring injury, and Brandon Ingram is just four games into his return.

That doesn't excuse New Orleans sucking it up on offense; it has the talent to be better than ultra-crappy at partial strength. But the peak of this team, at full capacity, is much higher. We've seen it, with Zion, before Ingram ever returned. That incentivizes, possibly forces, the Pelicans to be more proactive than their record implies and look at meaningfully addressing some of their most glaring needs.

Outside volume and accuracy should top that wish list. New Orleans is 27th in three-point-attempt rate and 18th in efficiency from beyond the arc. Its rim pressure cancels out some of the low volume from deep, but this isn't a case of "Zion always gets to the rim, so it's cool and by design and totally worth ignoring." The Pelicans are 25th in three-point-attempt rate since he went down.

Pick your favorite available, high-impact marksman who can play the 2, 3 or 4. Malik Beasley, Gary Trent Jr., Bojan Bogdanovic, even (to a lesser extent) OG Anunoby—you name him, New Orleans should be in on him.

New York Knicks

Prediction: The New York Knicks will trade at least two of Cam Reddish, Isaiah Hartenstein, Obi Toppin and a future first-round pick.

Cam "DNP - Tom Thibodeau Doesn't Like It When You Say Not-So-Nice Things Behind His Back" Reddish is a goner. We know that. New York would be foolish to sit on a player it's not using and won't re-sign in restricted free agency, even if he can net a singular second-rounder.

Something else will happen, though. Because, well, the Knicks are built for something else to happen.

Toppin's role will be forever capped so long as he's playing behind two-time All-Star Julius Randle and Thibs refuses to use them together. Hartenstein has played well since Mitchell Robinson's injury but isn't a Thibs big. New York has all its own first-round picks, Dallas' 2023 selection with top-10 protection and two conditional firsts from Detroit and Washington that won't convey this year but could convey down the line.

Combine all this with Derrick Rose's tidily sized expiring contract (2023-24 team option) and Evan Fournier's deal (one year, $18.9 million, with 2024-25 team option), and the Knicks have the ammo to pull off a variety of moves—including a megadeal.

Buying will be their first instinct, since they're in the thick of the playoff race. That explains their (somewhat curious) interest in O.G. Anunoby. But rolling the soon-to-be-extension-eligible Toppin into draft equity they can package as part of a later blockbuster offer is also within the realm of possibility.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Prediction: If Darius Bazley doesn't get traded, nobody will.

Try as I might to will the Oklahoma City Thunder into buying at the trade deadline, I know better. You know better. We all know better.

General manager Sam Presti isn't going to rush organizational process just because the 12th-place Thunder are a heartbeat away from being the seventh-place Thunder. Things might be different if Chet Holmgren were healthy and Oklahoma City had a better feel for what its entire core looked like together. But he's not, and it doesn't.

Bracing for the Thunder to sell, meanwhile, is futile. They're not stocked with aimless talent, and everyone on the roster is under team control through next season—except human enigma Darius Bazley.

He enters restricted free agency over the summer and, frankly, isn't coming back. His spot in the rotation is unstable even by head coach Mark Daigneault's perpetually experimental standards, and Oklahoma City needs to clear out a roster spot to make room for its lone first-round pick. It can do that by declining team options and nonguarantees on Mike Muscala, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, but why?

Generating a market for Bazley won't be easy. Teams can poach him in free agency. But he makes just $4.3 million and has flashed defensive malleability. The Thunder might be able to acquire a second-rounder or cheapo shooter from a suitor that wants to give him reps ahead of his next deal. If such a move doesn't materialize, though, Oklahoma City will sit out the Feb. 9 festivities.

Orlando Magic

Prediction: Mo Bamba gets traded, Gary Harris stays put and Terrence Ross hits the buyout market.

The Orlando Magic don't have the incentive to do anything major at the deadline. They aren't close enough to the playoff picture to aggressively buy, and no veteran on the roster is so good that they need to be moved.

Harris will garner the most interest of any non-core member. His $13 million salary next season is both reasonable and non-guaranteed, and he's connecting on 45.8 percent of his triples while converting 53.1 percent of his looks on drives.

Plenty of teams could use his plug-and-play production beyond this year. That includes the Magic, who need half-court floor-openers and might be looking to win a bunch of games in 2023-24 after potentially adding two more lottery picks and wielding truckloads of cap space. (They own Chicago's first-round pick, with top-four protection.)

Bamba is more gettable. He no longer features prominently in the rotation, and the concept of a 7-footer who can stretch defenses and protect the rim resonates throughout the league. Enough squads are chasing reserve bigs for Orlando to find him a new home—particularly when he's essentially an expiring contract. (His 2023-24 salary guarantees on June 29.)

Ross is shooting over 55 percent from deep since Jan. 1. That will pique the attention of someone. But he's not good enough to be considered anyone's finishing touch. The Magic may have to soak up longer-term money as part of any deal, and that won't necessarily fly when they're projected to have $34-plus million in cap space. They'll do Ross a solid instead, after he doesn't get moved, and broker a buyout.

Philadelphia 76ers

Prediction: Furkan Korkmaz, Shake Milton or Jaden Springer will be offloaded as part of a tax-ducking trade.

Welcome to Easy Prediction City. Population: The Philadelphia 76ers.

Philly is roughly $1.2 million over the luxury-tax line. That isn't going to stand. General manager Daryl Morey will finagle a salary dump that puts the Sixers under the $150.3 million tax threshold and outfits them with juuust enough runway to surf the buyout market.

Granted, this can happen as part of a larger trade, too. Philly just isn't constructed to make one.

Disposable mid-end salaries are hard to come by unless the Sixers pull the plug on the P.J. Tucker experience, and Tobias Harris' price point (one year, $37.6 million) is too massive to move outside of a blockbuster deal. The absence of any imminently tradeable first-round picks further lends itself to modest activity.

Which brings us back to the inevitable tax dump.

Korkmaz projects as the most likely candidate. The Sixers have the second-rounders and cash-on-hand to offset the $5.4 million he's owed next season, and he makes enough now ($5 million) that they can exchange him for another player and still comfortably skirt the tax.

Matisse Thybulle ($4.4 million expiring) also falls under this umbrella. And he is absolutely a trade candidate. But strictly treating him as a salary dump would be a misallocation of assets. His defensive disruption is worth hanging onto ahead of the playoffs when Philly has alternative means of trimming its payroll.

Phoenix Suns

Predictions: No trades that cost the Phoenix Suns a first-round pick will be made.

Before your blood boils in an enraged haze, allow me to explain.

Phoenix will make a trade. It has no choice. Jae Crowder is getting paid to do nothing, and the Suns rotation isn't deep enough to let his spot remain a zero all season.

This will ring hollow relative to what the Bucks are reportedly offering for him. My guess would be that Phoenix expands any Crowder-to-Milwaukee deal to include third-party facilitators rather than accept a smattering of fringe-rotation players who don't move the needle.

These expansions, however, will not feature any of the Suns' first-round picks. They will hold out for megatrade options that are more likely to manifest over the offseason. Do the Kevin Durant sweepstakes reopen? Does Pascal Siakam go from untouchable to gettable? What surprise name hits the block? Jimmy Butler? Brandon Ingram?

To be sure, this doesn't preclude Phoenix from making a biggish trade now. Deandre Ayton alone might be fuel for a higher-end swap. (Think: Fred VanVleet or, less likely, O.G. Anunoby.)

Because honesty among friends is important: I'd wager against this, as well. But it seems more likely than the Suns parting with any of their firsts right now. Their 2023 pick is more valuable since they've fallen off the West's mountaintop, and flipping any future draft equity for a non-star no longer seems like it'll nudge them over the championship hump.

If that doesn't convince you, general manager James Jones' track record for doing pretty much nothing noteworthy at the deadline probably should. He might be under renewed pressure from inbound ownership, but the still-yet-to-be-completed sale of the team could also serve as a roadblock to any higher-stakes swings.

Portland Trail Blazers

Prediction: Their trade deadline involves more selling than buying

Who doesn't love a guesstimate that runs counter to the rumor mill?

Punting on this season and entering seller mode apparently isn't an option for the Portland Trail Blazers. They are instead "intensely engrossed in improving the roster" and remain "committed to being opportunistic and creative in trying to surround franchise star Damian Lillard with a roster capable of competing with the best," according to Bleacher Report's Chris Haynes. The Athletic's Shams Charania has since added that Portland is a "strong suitor" for Jarred Vanderbilt.

We can split hairs over whether targeting a reserve big man/energy drink incarnate qualifies as "buying." (My verdict: Eh.) The Blazers aren't built to seriously level-up. They owe a first-rounder to Chicago that's lottery-protected through 2028 and can't officially guarantee a pick without adjusting the terms of said obligation. Orchestrating even a medium-sized move is impossibly hard when you don't have surefire firsts to dole out.

Putting Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe on the table boosts the ceiling on potential trades. But the Blazers shouldn't be jettisoning one of their three best players and last June's No. 7 pick in non-blockbusters, and even then, those deals seldom go down without first-round equity exchanging hands.

When the dust settles on Feb. 9, the Blazers will look largely the same. And if they don't, it's probably because they pounced on an opportunity to unload Josh Hart (2023-24 player option) or Jusuf Nurkić (three years, $54.4 million) in a lateral move—or even one that does nothing for them now but better positions them to go blockbuster hunting over the offseason.

Sacramento Kings

Prediction: Upgrades will be made to the wing defense.

The Sacramento Kings have wing defense on the brain. This is to say: They understand their most glaring limitations.

Matisse Thybulle is among their persons of interest, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey. That list should also include everyone from Josh Hart, Josh Richardson, Jae'Sean Tate and Gary Trent Jr. to flier-types such as Cam Reddish, Jalen McDaniels and Davon Reed to not-really-the-point-but-close-enough targets like Jae Crowder, Torrey Craig, Naji Marshall and (if healthy) Javonte Green.

Basically, anyone that doesn't seem out of reach for some combination of Richaun Holmes, Terence Davis, seconds and maaaybe a conditional first should be ambling across Sacramento's radar. The real question: Do the Kings have the assets to do more?

Brokering something short of a blockbuster is tough without an imminent first-rounder to trade. Other teams will cobble together more aggressive packages for, say, Alex Caruso.

Would the Kings consider offering conditional firsts in 2026 and 2028 and Keegan Murray (plus Davis and a small salary or just Holmes) for O.G. Anunoby? And would that get Toronto to bite?

Just some food for thought.

San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: Josh Richardson gets moved in the same deal as Zach Collins or Doug McDermott.

Buyers will be circling the San Antonio Spurs like vultures coming from a seven-day fast entering the trade deadline. No other seller checks as many of their let's-make-a-deal boxes. San Antonio not only has four veterans on short-term contracts worth a looksy—Collins, McDermott, Richardson, Jakob Poeltl—but the cap space ($26.9 million) and timeline to be on the salary-absorption side of lopsided deals.

In a somewhat awkward wrinkle, though, hardly any of the Spurs' assets are worth a first-round pick or prospect of their own. Poeltl might net one, but his pending free agency complicates matters. Their cap space could be leased out to firm up first-round offers, but straight salary dumps are rarer when stars neither enter nor leave via free agency these days.

Stacking assets will be San Antonio's best way to snag returns with more long-term upside. Richardson's expiring deal is a good place to start. Teams remain thirsty for multi-position wings, and he's averaging 13.8 points and 3.7 assists while canning 38.2 percent of his 5.8 three-point attempts per game since Jan. 1.

Tethering him to Poeltl surely culminates in first-round compensation. But the Spurs might just find they're better off financing the latter's next deal. Especially if he's not bringing back a first on his own.

Collins or McDermott is the more likely partner. And Collins, specifically, is the cleaner add-on. His salary is smaller ($7.3 million), tons of teams are looking for reserve bigs, and he's quietly piecing together a rock-solid year. In just under 21 minutes per game, he's hitting 59.5 percent of his twos and 36.5 percent of his threes while holding opponents to 52.2 percent shooting at the rim—a top-nine mark among 158 players who have contested at least 100 point-blank attempts.

Toronto Raptors

Prediction: Two of O.G. Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr. and Fred VanVleet will be traded.

Upping the stakes is the only way to approach the Toronto Raptors' deadline. Predicting the exit of Trent alone is easy—too easy. He has a player option for next season and has always been the top-six player on the roster Toronto is least likely to pay. It'll honestly be more surprising if he sticks past the deadline.

Tacking on Anunoby or VanVleet inflates the risk. Insisting that Anunoby is the more likely trade candidate does the same—and makes you feel more alive.

Oh, it's also a totally rational response to the rumor mill.

The Raptors are officially "taking calls" on the 25-year-old Anunoby, according to The Athletic's Shams Charania. Not even teams pivoting into rebuilds are usually keen on parting ways with young defensive masterminds who can guard just about everyone and stretch the floor while offering glimpses into more complicated offensive usage.

Still, Anunoby's case is anomalous. He has one more year left on his deal before he hits free agency (2024-25 player option), and the Raptors aren't ideally suited to thoroughly test out or guarantee him an increasingly prominent offensive usage with both Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam in tow.

A perfect storm of circumstances—i.e. lack of glittery trade options—may also be driving Anunoby's value up to and past its peak. No true stars appear available, and a dearth of definitive sellers will allow those who willingly shed talent to puff up their asking prices.

Toronto remains a wild card. It could just as easily stand pat or add a big or another shot creator and hope the current nucleus figures things out. But as the losses continue to mount, maintaining or building upon the status quo is much less likely.

Nearly all of their top-six players are approaching paydays. Precious Achiuwa is extension-eligible this summer. Ditto for Siakam. Barnes will follow suit in 2024. Trent and VanVleet (player option) are headed for free agency in June. The Raptors aren't paying everyone. And so, in preparation of what's next, and in response to a season gone off the rails, they will trade two someones.

Utah Jazz

Prediction: Team CEO Danny Ainge and general manager Justin Zanik will acquire multiple first-round picks...or John Collins.

As Chris Haynes and Marc Stein noted on their #thisleague UNCUT podcast, everyone on the Utah Jazz not named Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and Ochai Agbaji is available for the taking. This willingness to part with talent alone is enough to pump up the returns. But it helps that Utah's expendables are also extremely useful.

Between the contracts of Malik Beasley ($16.5 million team option), Jordan Clarkson ($14.3 million player option), Mike Conley (one year, $24.4 million; $14.3 million guaranteed), Kelly Olynyk (one year, $12.2 million; $3 million guaranteed), Collin Sexton (three years, $54.5 million) and Jarred Vanderbilt (one year, $4.7 million), the Jazz have multiple first-rounders' worth of in-demand assets on their hands. They may need to combine certain players to make it happen, but they can, in fact, make it happen—and probably only need to trade three or four total names to do it.

Going the picks-and-prospects route is most conventional and, perhaps, most likely. But Ainge and Zanik have already stockpiled future firsts. Utah could instead elect to operate as a distressed-asset buyer—a suitor for someone it can rehabilitate and flip for exponentially more later, if not actually build around long-term with Markkanen and Kessler.

Enter John Collins. The Jazz have interest in him, per The Athletic's Sam Amick. And if it turns out Atlanta doesn't demand any first-round picks for his services, the Jazz can cobble together a players-only offer and roll the dice on what was not too long ago a fringe All-Star who, theoretically, could yield more big-picture value than a spattering of top-18 draft selections.

Washington Wizards

Prediction: The Washington Wizards emerge as a finalist, and potentially acquire, Alex Caruso, Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, D'Angelo Russell, Collin Sexton or Fred VanVleet.

Common sense begs the Wizards to shop soon-to-be free agents Kyle Kuzma (player option) and Kristaps Porziņģis (player option) and maybe even Bradley Beal (no-trade clause), all in the name of starting over, at long last, like they should have years ago.

That's not going to happen.

In lieu of the common-sense play, Washington will try to go all-in. Emphasis on try.

This is not a copout. It's more like copping to reality. The Wizards' shiniest offers are dulled by their inability to guarantee a first-round pick before 2026. They can throw in conditional selections, but teams can't be sure when (or if) they'll convey until Washington's obligation to New York plays out. That pick is under lottery protection this year; top-12 protection in 2024; top-10 protection in 2025; and top-eight protection in 2026.

None of which prevents the Wizards from going all-out. They have Daniel Gafford, Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert to use as sweeteners, digestible short-term contracts in Monte Morris and Delon Wright and a nicely sized expiring deal in Will Barton. They can then top off the offer, depending on the target, with conditional firsts.

Please don't ask me who this mix of assets gets them into the running for prior to Thursday's deadline. I'd keep my eyes peeled on VanVleet and Conley and maaaybe Caruso, specifically. Regardless, my hunch is the Wizards will come pretty close, if not succeed, in making the wrong decision acquiring another guard who does two of score, playmake and defend.

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Thursday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.