Purdue's Zach Edey Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Zach Edey vs. TJD, Duke-UNC Round I and Much More This Weekend in Men's College Hoops

Kerry Miller

For the first time in the 2022-23 men's college basketball season, there will finally be a weekend without any football on the schedule. (Unless you count the Pro Bowl, which, come on, be serious.) And we are seizing the opportunity to have the spotlight to ourselves with an absolutely loaded slate of games.

There are six ranked-vs.-ranked showdowns Saturday alone, not to mention a significant unranked meeting between Duke and North Carolina. Throw in a few other rivalry games and a couple of big bubble battles and it's almost too much to keep track of.

So let us be your guide with this "What to Watch" preview for the first weekend of February.

Friday Night

Get your college basketball weekend started right with a tripleheader of mid-major action Friday night.

First up is VCU at Saint Louis (7 p.m. ET on ESPN2) in the battle for first place in the Atlantic 10. Per usual, VCU forces a ton of turnovers. But Saint Louis has the nation's leader in assists per game in Yuri Collins. If he can handle the Rams' relentless pressure, the Billikens should get the W at home.

After that one, Boise State at AP No. 22 San Diego State (9 p.m. ET on FS1) is a massive one in the Mountain West, again for first place in the conference, with each team sitting at 8-2. Both teams are somewhat comfortably in the NCAA tournament field, but the Broncos could use this road win.

(If you're in a two-screen mood on a Friday night, set the second one to Kent State at Akron on ESPNU. It could be a great one between teams that are each 8-1 in Mid-American Conference play.)

And then the nightcap is Air Force at Nevada (11 p.m. ET on CBS SN) in a game the Wolf Pack simply cannot afford to lose if they're going to remain in the projected field. They scored a huge win over San Diego State on Tuesday night, but a loss here could undo the benefit of that victory.

Nevada won the first game by just a six-point margin and will need to be on upset alert against the Falcons.

Saturday's Early Slate

The Must-Watch Game: No. 8 Kansas at No. 13 Iowa State (Noon ET on ESPN)

Kansas' Jalen Wilson and Kevin McCullar Jr. Michael Hickey/Getty Images

For a while there in the 2010s, this was a sensational rivalry, with the Cyclones winning seven out of 13 meetings between the 2014 and 2019 Big 12 tournaments.

But under T.J. Otzelberger, it's been "close but no cigar" for Iowa State.

Both teams were ranked in the Top 20 in each of the past three matchups—each decided by single digits—and that will be the case again for this one.

Kansas needs the road win to further solidify its case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but Iowa State needs it just to stop the bleeding. The 'Clones got smoked by Missouri in the SEC/B12 Challenge and then blew a 23-point second-half lead in the overtime loss at Texas Tech on Monday. But they are 11-0 at home this season and will look to channel that Hilton magic into a big win.

On the Second Screen: Michigan State vs. Rutgers (Noon ET on Fox at Madison Square Garden)

Neither Big Ten squad is ranked, but they are both in good shape for an NCAA tournament bid and hoping to remain in the hunt for a coveted double bye in the Big Ten tourney.

They squared off just two weeks ago in East Lansing, with perimeter shooting being the difference in a 70-57 Spartans victory. They shot 12-of-22 from distance while Rutgers (2-of-17) simply could not buy a long-range bucket. We'll see who's feeling it at MSG.

Other Early Games to Monitor: No. 6 Virginia at Virginia Tech (Noon ET on ESPN2), Texas Tech at No. 11 Baylor (1 p.m. ET on CBS), UCF at Cincinnati (Noon ET on ESPNU)

Saturday Mid-Afternoon

The Must-Watch Game: No. 25 Auburn at No. 2 Tennessee (2 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Auburn's Johni Broome Michael Chang/Getty Images

It's time for yet another riveting edition of "Is Auburn any good?"

The Tigers are 17-5 overall and have solid metrics across the board, but they have somehow not yet played a single game against a sure-fire NCAA tournament team. Their best victory was probably the 43-42 neutral-site rock fight against Northwestern. And the five losses came against Memphis, USC, Texas A&M, West Virginia and Georgia—aka four bubble teams and Georgia.

But playing at Tennessee this weekend is a gigantic opportunity to prove that this defense is for real and that this team is worthy of a single-digit seed in the Big Dance.

Meanwhile, the Volunteers are looking to rally from a not-terrible-but-not-OK loss to Florida to keep pace with Alabama atop the SEC and get back in the mix for a No. 1 seed—though the Feb. 15 matchup with the Crimson Tide is the much bigger chance to do so.

On the Second Screen: Illinois at Iowa (2:30 p.m. ET on Fox)

See: Michigan State vs. Rutgers.

Neither Big Ten team is ranked, but both look good for spots in the NCAA tournament and could take a nice step toward a double bye in the Big Ten tournament with a big head-to-head victory.

Will Kris Murray, a potent offense and home-court advantage be enough for the Hawkeyes to beat an Illini team that has won seven of its last eight?

Other Mid-Afternoon Games to Monitor: No. 15 TCU at Oklahoma State (2 p.m. ET on ESPN+), No. 23 Miami at No. 20 Clemson (3 p.m. ET on ACCN), Tulane at Memphis (2 p.m. ET on ESPNU)

Saturday Late Afternoon

The Must-Watch Game: No. 1 Purdue at No. 21 Indiana (4 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis Justin Casterline/Getty Images

It's a bitter rivalry and both teams are ranked—with the home team in a position to possibly knock off the unanimous No. 1 team in the country.

But factor in the individual battle in the post between Purdue's Zach Edey and Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis, and this just might be the best regular-season game of the entire 2022-23 campaign.

If there is going to be any drama down the stretch in the National Player of the Year race, this is where it starts to get interesting.

No one has been able to slow down Edey this season, but perhaps TJD—who averaged 23.0 points, 14.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 3.4 blocks in nine January games—can at least keep pace in a haymaker-exchanging heavyweight fight.

Neither one has been called for more than three fouls in a game in over a month, so here's hoping the refs let both of them play a full game.

On the Second Screen: No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Kansas State (4 p.m. ET on ESPN2)

This Big 12 clash is much more of a "Must Watch 2.0" game than something to half-heartedly throw onto the second screen as background noise, as first place in the nation's best conference is hanging in the balance in this Top 10 showdown.

Texas is alone atop the standings at 7-2, with Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State and TCU all just one game back, champing at the bit.

One of those two losses came at the hands of Kansas State when a rare NBA game broke out in early January, with the Wildcats winning 116-103 in Austin. Maybe Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson can put on a similar show in the Octagon of Doom, where Kansas State is undefeated this season.

Other Late-Afternoon Games to Monitor: No. 19 Florida Atlantic at Charlotte (4 p.m. ET on ESPN+), St. John's at No. 16 Xavier (5 p.m. ET on Fox)

Saturday Evening

The Must-Watch Game: North Carolina at Duke (6:30 p.m. ET)

Duke's Jon Scheyer Grant Halverson/Getty Images

It hasn't been the season that either of these teams had in mind. North Carolina started at No. 1 in the AP poll. Duke was No. 7. Now they're both unranked.

But this is still a massive game.

Not only is it the greatest rivalry in men's college basketball, but it's also a matchup with substantial NCAA tournament implications, with both teams projected for a spot somewhere in the No. 7 seed range.

Winner climbs more comfortably into the field.

Loser officially enters the bubble conversation.

Fun stakes for the first chapter of this rivalry with Jon Scheyer calling the shots in Durham.

On the Second Screen: Missouri at Mississippi State (6 p.m. ET on SECN)

This is an intriguing one in the SEC, with one of the best turnover-forcing defenses in the nation going on the road to face one of the best overall defenses in the nation.

Missouri is top-10 in adjusted offensive efficiency but outside the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com. Just the opposite for Mississippi State, which is top-10 on defense and not top-150 on offense.

The Bulldogs need this one to at least start to climb back into the at-large conversation.

Other Evening Games to Monitor: Villanova at Creighton (7:30 p.m. ET on Fox), Washington State at No. 9 UCLA (7 p.m. ET on Pac-12 Network)

Saturday Night

The Must-Watch Game: No. 12 Gonzaga at No. 18 Saint Mary's (10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Saint Mary's guard Logan Johnson AP Photo/George Frey

It's not the first time these West Coast Conference rivals have met while both ranked in the AP Top 25. In fact, it happened three times just last season.

But this one feels different, because Saint Mary's is legitimately supposed to win for a change.

No need to oversell it as some potential changing of the guard where the Gaels can become the new WCC juggernaut. Right here and right now, though, Saint Mary's is the better team. The AP voters might not be ready to believe it, but the predictive metrics—where Saint Mary's is a top-10 team pretty much across the board—clearly prefer the Gaels to the Zags.

The problem is they don't have that signature win yet. They came close at Houston in early December, but save for the neutral-site victory over San Diego State, the Gaels have yet to prove they deserve that high praise. They've basically just juiced their numbers by beating up on Quadrant 3 foes.

They've got to capitalize on this opportunity in Moraga, and you're going to want to have enough caffeine during the day to stay up until the conclusion of this one.

On the Second Screen: Oklahoma at West Virginia (8 p.m. ET on ESPN2)

Barring overtime, this game won't even overlap with the Gonzaga-Saint Mary's game, so you'll be able to give this massive Big 12 bubble tilt the main-screen treatment.

It's clear that both Oklahoma and West Virginia are good. KenPom puts the Sooners in the top 50 and the Mountaineers in the top 20. However, they are a combined 4-14 in Big 12 play, each repeatedly falling short in close games against the top six teams in the league. That makes this game huge, because both teams need to keep the losses from piling up.

Other Night Games to Monitor: Florida at Kentucky (8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN), Oregon at Arizona State (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2), Utah State at Colorado State (8 p.m. ET on CBS SN)

Sunday

Cougar Revenge?: No. 3 Houston at Temple (6 p.m. ET on ESPN2)

Temple's Hysier Miller and Houston's Jamal Shead Bob Levey/Getty Images

Temple already has one of the most bizarre tournament resumes imaginable.

As of Wednesday morning, there were 188 teams who had played at least three Quadrant 1 games, and the Owls were the only ones boasting an undefeated record in those opportunities. They won at Houston two weeks ago, won at UCF last weekend and beat Rutgers on a neutral floor early in the year. They also have home wins over Cincinnati, Villanova and VCU.

But then there's the home losses to Wagner and Maryland-Eastern Shore among the eight losses to teams nowhere near the at-large field. Because of those games, Temple is, also, nowhere near the at-large field.

Finishing off a season sweep of Houston would at least force the 14-9 Owls into the at-large conversation. But, most likely, Houston will have its revenge.

A Big B1G Slate: Ohio State at Michigan (1 p.m. ET on CBS), Penn State at Nebraska (4:30 p.m. ET on BTN), Northwestern at Wisconsin (6:30 p.m. ET on BTN)

It sometimes feels like every Big Ten game has gigantic bubble implications, but that's especially true of this trifecta.

Both Ohio State and Michigan are already on the outside looking in, and the loser of that rivalry game might drop out of the at-large mix for good. Northwestern and Wisconsin are in better shape than the Buckeyes and Wolverines, but both are perched perilously on the bubble. Wisconsin needs it more, but the loser will be in trouble.

And for Penn State, Nebraska is simply a game it cannot afford to lose if it's to live to see another week in everybody's last four in/first four out projections.

So, yeah, buckle up for a big weekend.

   

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