Stopping the clock has sometimes been a useful device for meeting the most intractable deadlines in Northern Irish politics. But the clock is currently ticking unceasingly towards two important dates, neither of them many weeks distant now, where stopping it will not be an option for Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary. Mr Heaton-Harris is in a race against time, with major implications not just for Northern Ireland but for Britain.
The two dates in question are the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement on 10 April and the legal obligation to call fresh assembly elections if there is no power-sharing agreement between the Northern Irish parties before 13 April. The dates are not formally linked. Yet each has powerful potential to expose the current fragility of the 1998 power-sharing agreement in the light of divisions caused by the Northern Ireland protocol of the Brexit deal between Britain and the European Union.
For economic reasons above all, Rishi Sunak rightly desires a more businesslike relationship with the EU. The protocol row stands in the way of that. So he wants the argument sorted and off his desk as soon as possible. To that end, Mr Heaton-Harris has worked hard to renew a positive relationship with Ireland and to look for common ground on reform of the protocol. He hopes, by doing this, that the hostility of the Democratic Unionists and other unionist parties can be addressed, and that they can be persuaded back into power-sharing, thus paving the way for practical cooperation with the EU more widely.
The Northern Ireland secretary’s important announcement on Thursday of an independent public inquiry into the Omagh bombing of 1998, the single worst terrorist incident of the Troubles, should be seen, in part, in that same light. It is above all an assertion of the rule of law and of government accountability. But it is also a confidence-building step. It was the right call, and it should be matched by an inquiry in Ireland. The scope of the inquiry nevertheless calls into question the UK government’s much more restrictive approach to other “legacy” issues.
Earlier this week, it was reported that Britain and the EU have struck a customs deal that would avoid the need for routine checks on British goods destined for Northern Ireland and that would restrict the role of the European court of justice. This was seen by some as purely a kite-flying exercise, not least because the putative deal contained nothing long term about the vexed issue of animal products. But it is a sign that some progress is being made.
Nevertheless, positivity will only get the government so far. Better relations with Ireland and the EU are necessary and welcome. So is progress on the protocol. However, neither of these satisfies the DUP’s conditions for lifting its boycott of power sharing. Judging from the party’s tone, it feels its hardline stance is being vindicated. Nor does a compromise hold any interest for the Conservative party’s ultra-sovereigntist Brexiter wing. Mr Sunak should be prepared to rely on opposition votes to get any real deal done.
Northern Ireland politics has witnessed enough 11th hour outcomes over the years – the Good Friday agreement among them – for the possibility of a deal this time not to be dismissed. Yet unless he stands up more explicitly against the opponents of a compromise that is overwhelmingly in Britain’s interest, Mr Heaton-Harris will not beat the clock.