CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Hey! It’s entertainment award season! Up this weekend, is the 65th annual Grammy Awards.
The music industry’s annual evening of glad-handing and backslapping, a multi-hour ode to its own bad self, happens on Sunday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, and for folks who pay attention to such things watching the six-hour telecast that starts at 8 p.m. on CBS (kidding, it’s only about three) means hoping to catch your favorite performers or exciting combinations of them.
All the show’s performers are, of course, nominees and include Bad Bunny (2 nominations), Mary J. Blige (6), Brandi Carlile (7), Luke Combs (3), Steve Lacy (4), Lizzo (5), Kim Petra (1) and Sam Smith (1).
Blige, still the reigning Queen of Hip Hop Soul, has to hold it down for the over-50 set, and the Grammys telecast has long abandoned the concept of showcasing the full breadth and width of the music made by the record industry because, hey, first and foremost, it’s a television show. So, if you’re a rock fan who watches the Grammys, Luke Combs may be your best bet for some power chords.
RELATED: 2023 Grammy Awards nominees list: Beyonce, Kendrick Lamar, Adele, Brandi Carlile lead the way
Anyway, now that I’ve shooed all those kids off my darn lawn, let’s mix it up a bit, shall we? Let’s hit a few big categories and make educated guesses on a few others based not necessarily on who’s product is the qualitative “best” but with whom the voters may be most familiar and comfortable and who moved the most digital units.
Warning: This is not a betting guide. This list is just for fun and education and to help folks interested but perhaps not hip to all the current mainstream music scene jive.
Also, if you’re making prop bets on award show winners, please consider calling the National Council on Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700 because you may need to talk to a professional.
Record of the Year
“Don’t Shut Me Down,” ABBA; “Easy On Me,” Adele; “Break My Soul,” Beyonce; “Good Morning Gorgeous,” Mary J. Blige; “You and Me On The Rock,” Brandi Carlile featuring Lucius; “Woman,” Doja Cat; “Bad Habit,” Steve Lacy; “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar; “About Damn Time,” Lizzo; “As It Was,” Harry Styles
First, Abba and the bouncy familiar tune are nominated for reappearing as a group. Second, singer-songwriter-guitarist Steve Lacy seems to have become an industry darling, and he’s probably going to take home one of the four nominations he’s received, perhaps best progressive R&B album for his fine “Gemini Rights” album. But it’s unlikely he’ll leave the auditorium with the ROY Grammy in his arms.
This award probably goes to one of the women. Brandi Carlile has been on a multi-year critical and increasingly commercial hot streak. Beyonce is...well, Beyonce and Adele is also beloved. Finally, Lizzo’s ‘80s dance-pop infused “About Damn Time” is sonically a damn good time, and its feel-good vibe may push it over the top.
Prediction: “You and Me On The Rock,” Brandi Carlile featuring Lucius
Song of the year (songwriter’s award)
Song of the year (songwriter’s award): “abcdefu,” Sara Davis, GAYLE and Dave Pittenger; “About Damn Time,” Melissa “Lizzo” Jefferson, Eric Frederic, Blake Slatkin and Theron Makiel Thomas; “All Too Well (10 Minute Version – The Short Film),” Liz Rose and Taylor Swift; “As It Was,” Tyler Johnson, Kid Harpoon and Harry Styles; “Bad Habit,” Matthew Castellanos, Brittany Fousheé, Diana Gordon, John Carroll Kirby and Steve Lacy; “Break My Soul,” Beyoncé, S. Carter, Terius “The Dream” Gesteelde-Diamant and Christopher A. Stewart; “Easy on Me,” Adele Adkins and Greg Kurstin; “God Did,” Tarik Azzouz, E. Blackmon, Khaled Khaled, F. LeBlanc, Shawn Carter, John Stephens, Dwayne Carter, William Roberts and Nicholas Warwar; “The Heart Part 5,” Jake Kosich, Johnny Kosich, Kendrick Lamar and Matt Schaeffer; “Just Like That,” Bonnie Raitt.
Song and Record of the Year often share several nominees. Here we have Bonnie Raitt, a grand dame holding it down for the septuagenarian set, good for her. But the “win” for her touching, folksy ballad is probably in the respect shown by the song’s nomination.
T-Sizzle is here with her emotional, May-December-relationship-crash-and-burn ballad, and its accompanying engaging and dramatic short film could push her over the top here.
Beyonce is not leaving the Crypto.com Arena (a terrible, awful name) without a Grammy for an attendant to carry back to the limo for her, so her self-empowerment dance tune could be one of her wins.
Kendrick Lamar’s lyrically dense, powerful “The Heart Part 5″ will surely win one of the four categories it’s in, ROY, SOY, Best Rap Performance, Best Rap Song, and Best Music Video.
But the ebullience and retro grooviness of “About Damn Time” is the sort of song that immediately gets people pumped at weddings, spin classes, proms, and other places people gather to wiggle rhythmically.
Prediction: About Damn Time,” Melissa “Lizzo” Jefferson, Eric Frederic, Blake Slatkin and Theron Makiel Thomas
Album of the year
“Voyage,” ABBA; “30,” Adele; “Un Verano Sin Ti,” Bad Bunny; “Renaissance,” Beyoncé; “Good Morning Gorgeous” (Deluxe), Mary J. Blige; “In These Silent Days,” Brandi Carlile; “Music of the Spheres,” Coldplay; “Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers,” Kendrick Lamar; “Special,” Lizzo; “Harry’s House,” Harry Styles.
I don’t have any particular insider knowledge or carefully constructed Venn Diagram for this one. Honestly, I just think it will be Brandi Carlile’s big win for the evening.
Prediction: “In These Silent Days,” Brandi Carlile
Best new artist
Anitta; Omar Apollo; DOMi & JD Beck; Muni Long; Samara Joy; Latto; Månekskin; Tobe Nwigwe; Molly Tuttle; Wet Leg.
What an interesting collection of artists with an international flair. We’ve got Brazilian tri-lingual singer Anitta, Franco-American instrumental jazz duo Domi & JD Beck, whose album “Not Tight” is nominated for Best Contemporary Jazz Instrumental Album, Maneskin, a quartet from Rome, Italy, and indie rock duo Wet Leg hail from the Isle of Wight.
The rest of the nominees are from the States. Bilingual and musically eclectic Mexican-American singer-songwriter Omar Apollo grew up in Indiana, and R&B chanteuse Muni Long is from rural Florida. Jazz singer Samara Joy and her velvety contralto hail from the Bronx, rapper-singer Latto was born in Columbus, while rapper-singer-actor Tobe Nwigwe is a Texan and bluegrass multi-instrumentalist and singer Molly Tuttle is from the Bay Area.
So what does this all mean? I’m not sure, but kudos to the Recording Academy for looking beyond the Billboard charts. Nevertheless, Wet Leg’s eponymously titled album was heavily hyped in all the hippest media portals and is a fun, quirky, and catchy record. Plus, the peppy lead single “Chaise Lounge” has enough double entendres to make Steven Tyler and Ted Nugent blush.
Prediction: Wet Leg
Best pop duo/group performance: “Don’t Shut Me Down,” ABBA; “Bam Bam,” Camila Cabello featuring Ed Sheeran; “My Universe,” Coldplay and BTS; “I Like You (A Happier Song),” Post Malone and Doja Cat; “Unholy,” Sam Smith and Kim Petras.
There’s nothing on this list as obviously viral as Lil Nas X and Billy Cyrus’ “Old Town Road” duet from 2020, but there are some solid pop tunes here. And though “group” is part of the title, this award frequently goes to a “duo” evidenced by the inclusion of only one actual group.
As hard as it is to bet against the international juggernaut that has been BTS and their anthemic team-up with Coldplay, I don’t think they’ll win. Likewise, the Post Malone and Doja Cat collab was a big hit, but Ms. Cat won last year with SZA. As far as groups go, ABBA could pull this one out based on the familiarity of their craftsmanship and the group’s longevity and multi-generational popularity.
Prediction: “Don’t Shut Me Down,” ABBA
Best pop vocal album: “Voyage,” ABBA; “30,” Adele; “Music of the Spheres,” Coldplay; “Special,” Lizzo; “Harry’s House,” Harry Styles.
My gut says ABBA will get something on the big night, but with Lizzo’s big, brassy, and just plain fun record and Harry Styles..er..stylish collection of pleasant tunes and his pop idol status, I’m betting one of the two youngsters take this one home. So it’s kind of a toss-up here.
Prediction: “Special,” Lizzo
Best rock album: “Dropout Boogie,” The Black Keys; “The Boy Named If,” Elvis Costello and the Imposters; “Crawler,” Idles; “Mainstream Sellout,” Machine Gun Kelly; “Patient Number 9,” Ozzy Osbourne; “Lucifer on the Sofa,” Spoon.
This award could go to one of the two legends, Elvis Costello or Ozzy Osbourne, for still being around, alive, and active (seriously, I read his autobiography. Ozzy Osbourne’s continued existence is a testament to both the medical profession and Chaos Theory).
Unfortunately, Clevelander MGK’s album is mostly a very familiar early-aughts pop-punk throwback and is frankly just not that interesting. But The Black Keys sit in that space of having a multi-generational fan base, a storied and successful history of rocking arenas for a decade. Though the straight-ahead rock of “Dropout Boogie” doesn’t really add any must-play classics to their live set lists, it’s a solid record.
Prediction: “Dropout Boogie,” The Black Keys
Producer of the year, non-classical: Jack Antonoff; Dan Auerbach; Boi-1da; Dahi; Dernst “D’mile” Emile II.
There are heavy-hitting hit-makers in this category with big names attached to their resumes. Jack Antonoff has Taylor Swift and Diana Ross. Boi-1 da worked with Beyonce, Kendrick Lamar and Jack Harlow. Dahi is also on Kendrick Lamar and Steve Lacy’s records, and Dernst “D’mile” Emile II has Silk Sonic and Mary J. Blige and others.
But Let’s just go full NEO homer and declare our Akron Boy Dan Auerbach, who mainly produced artists on his Easy Eye Sound label, the winner, shall we?
Prediction: Dan Auerbach
Best alternative music album: “WE,” Arcade Fire; “Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe You,” Big Thief; “Fossora,” Björk; “Wet Leg,” Wet Leg; “Cool It Down,” Yeah Yeah Yeahs.
Arcade Fire could win this one because a decade ago they were the hottest, most hyped indie band around. Likewise, the Yeah Yeah Yeahs were huge in the early 2000s, disappeared for nearly a decade, and came back with a solid record. Bjork is well, Bjork. She’s always interesting and always wonderfully weird. But Wet Leg is the hip sound of right now, with their detached vocals and cheeky and clever lyrics. Plus, many of their catchy grooves and guitar bits reach back to the sounds of 80s and 90s college, alternative and indie rock, making us olding Gen-Xers feel “cool.”
Prediction: “Wet Leg,” Wet Leg
Best progressive R&B album: “Operation Funk,” Cory Henry; “Gemini Rights,” Steve Lacy”; “Drones,” Terrace Martin; “Starfruit,” Moonchild; “Red Ballon,” Tank and the Bangas.
For someone who grew up on R&B bands (remember those?), this is one of my favorite of the newer categories (2013) because it highlights some of the more adventurous artists considered to be in the R&B realm. What all these artists and their nominated albums share is a left-of-mainstream aesthetic that mixes in whatever other forms of music they dig.
Tank And The Bangas bring their New Orleans soul and sprinkle in some contemporary hip hop, and lead singer Tarriana “Tank” Ball is a vocal powerhouse. Cory Henry is simply a jazz-funk monster virtuoso on the keys, and Moonchild’s smooth, low-key R&B with singer Amber Navran’s raspy, soprano over-the-top makes relaxing, head-nodding grooves perfect for nighttime driving or just chilling.
Finally, Alto saxophonist, rapper, and producer Terrace Martin deftly mixes contemporary, funky jazz, hip hop, and R&B organically on his guest-filled album. That said, Steve Lacy’s nominations for the BIG awards strongly suggest that he’s the front-runner for this one.
Prediction: “Gemini Rights,” Steve Lacy”
HOW TO WATCH
The 2023 Grammy Awards takes place 8 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 5, at Los Angeles’ Crypto.com Arena. The show will be broadcast live on CBS (WOIO Channel 19 in Cleveland) and will stream live and on-demand on Paramount+. Comedian Trevor Noah is hosting the proceedings.
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