Injury status, fouls and free throw performance loom as critical in WVU trip to TCU

The Mountaineers will likely face a very different Horned Frog lineup than the one they knocked off in Morgantown just two weeks ago. Scoring leader Mike Miles, who hyperextended his knee against Mississippi State fewer than four minutes into the game is not listed by TCU as an expected starter and will miss the contest. Almost as importantly, rebounding leader Eddie Lampkin, who  has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, is also absent from that group, which would put a serious crimp on the Frogs' inside game.  Backup Rondel Walker also missed the State game due to a non-Covid illness.

The absence of that trio clearly had a big impact on the way TCU played against the Bulldogs, but it should be noted that it was able to extend Mississippi State to overtime on the road before dropping an 81-74 decision. The Frogs still put senior Damion Baugh (6-4, 194 lbs.), who averages nearly five assists per game, on the court to direct the offense, and he tosses in 12.7 points per outing, while forwards Emmanuel Miller (6-7, 217 lbs.) and Chuck O'Bannon (6-6, 212 lbs.) combine for more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per contest. If TCU is still missing those players, its pace of play might be lessened, and that's an item to watch, but by no means does it indicate an easy win for the Mountaineers is in the offing.

"We're evolving," TCU head coach Jamie Dixon said of the Frogs' need to cover for the absence of Miles, and perhaps more, against the Mountaineers. "We have to be able to adjust."

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Given the anticipated shift in focus to the forwards on TCU's offense, the defensive spotlight shifts somewhat to Mountaineers Tre Mitchell and Emmitt Matthews, who will need to play well on that end of the court to slow the TCU attack. Miller leads the Big 12 in shooting at 56.4%, and making him less efficient would be a big factor for the Mountaineers.

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What's the difference in three more wins in a season -- the edge that TCU has to date over WVU? How does nine points sound? 

The Frogs have scored 1628 points this year, while the Mountaineers have tallied 1619. The distribution is almost dead even over each half, with TCU holding a 790-788 advantage in the first and an 830-821 edge in the second.

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It might seem repetitive, all of these notes about the difficulty of West Virginia's schedule, and by extension, those of the Big 12 as a whole. But items such as the following really serve to illustrate the point. 

WVU has played the seventh-toughest schedule in the nation to date, but it's only going to get tougher. The Mountaineers, who have faced five AP Top 25 foes so far, have seven more games against such opponents in its final 10 regular season games.

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The two teams are among the best in the nation at creating extra scoring chances per game, in which offensive rebounds and turnover margin figure prominently. TCU is tenth in the country with a positive margin of +6, while the Mountaineers are 26th at +4.5.

WVU, though, has been on a downward trend of late, with a -1 margin over it's last three contests.

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At a capacity of 6,800, TCU's Schollmaier Arena is the smallest basketball venue in the Big 12.

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WVU continues to be one of the best in the nation at getting to the free throw line. It averages 24.2 trips per game (11th nationally) and its free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio of 42.4% stands 10th. Opponents are fouling the Mountaineers at the rate of more than 22 times per game, which is third in the country, and second when viewed in terms of fouls per possession.

Of course, converting them is another matter. After opening the Big 12 season with a five-game stretch in which it converted just 87 of 143 tries (60.8%), WVU has improved of late, going 82-104 (78.8%).

As is often the case, though, timing is everything, and making them down the stretch, or at critical moments to help blunt opponents' momentum, is often just as important as raw percentages. For example, WVU was an excellent 21-15 against Auburn, but three of those misses came in the final minutes as the Mountaineers were clinging to a narrow lead.

TCU, for its part, is committing just 15.5 fouls per game (68th) so a watch on the foul totals could be worth the effort. The Frogs were whistled for 24 fouls against WVU in the first meeting, much to the displeasure of Dixon, who bemoaned the physical nature of the game, stating "That wasn't basketball."