Grading the Bo Horvat trade: The Canucks hit a single, while the Islanders strike out

Originally posted on Daily Faceoff | By Matt Larkin | Last updated 1/31/23

Fire up that popular Joker GIF from "The Dark Knight."

“And here…we…go.”

Center Bo Horvat, perceived by most as the No. 1 domino to tumble approaching the March 3 NHL Trade Deadline, has changed addresses 32 days early.

He’s officially a New York Islander. The Vancouver Canucks sent their captain cross-continent in a Monday night blockbuster in exchange for left winger Anthony Beauvillier, prospect forward Aatu Raty and a conditional first-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft. The pick is top-12 protected and shifts to an unprotected 2024 first-round selection should the condition trigger this season — which is relevant information given the Isles currently sit two points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and are tied for the most games played in the league at 52.

Let me bury my tongue in my rather large cheek first before asking: who won the trade? Hey, if the likes of Ryan O’Reilly and Tage Thompson have taught us anything, it isn’t always fair to grade a deal the moment it happens. But it sure is fun, isn’t it? So that’s what we’re going to do.

VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Receive:

LW Anthony Beauvillier, 25 – $4.15M cap hit through 2023-24
C Aatu Raty, 20 – $836,667 cap hit through 2024-25
Conditional 2023 first-round pick (top-12 protected)

Anyone with a keyboard and a job in hockey media has burned some word counts getting their shots in at the Vancouver Canucks this season — and for good reason. From repeatedly throwing coach Bruce Boudreau under the bus leading up to the ugly, public erosion of his job, to allegations of discrimination against coaching staff member Rachel Doerrie, to accusations of mishandling Tanner Pearson’s hand injury, the circus has been constant.

That said: management actually followed through and accomplished something Monday. The haul here appears to be what was promised, albeit on the bland side.

Once it became clear that the Canucks weren’t going to budge on their lowball offer to Horvat, which was reportedly in the $5.125 million range for a player on pace for almost 60 goals in his UFA walk year, talk of the team’s desired asking price for Horvat began to trickle out. The Canucks, determined to retool no matter how open their fan base was to a rebuild, wanted a return that included NHL players ready to help the team in the present.

In Beauvillier, the Canucks get a bona fide middle-six NHLer with a first-round draft pedigree who averages 18 goals per 82 games in his 457-game NHL career. Beauvillier has also shown a tendency to elevate his game in the postseason. During the Isles’ consecutive final-four runs in 2020 and 2021, he chipped in 14 goals, including four game-winners — a series’ worth — across 41 games. Beauvillier has good speed and typically has carried a shoot-first mentality in his career. But he’s declined in his effectiveness over the past few seasons. Per Natural Stat Trick, from 2017-18 through 2019-20, he graded out as a top-four forward on the team with 0.95 goals per 60 and 7.18 shots per 60 at 5-on-5. Over the past three seasons: 0.59 goals per 60 despite generating almost as many shots at 7.16. Beauvillier’s finishing ability has evaporated. And with Anders Lee and Brock Nelson as his most common linemates this season it’s not like Beauvillier can blame his struggles on keeping weak company.

Still – this is a talented forward in his prime, so it’s not inconceivable Beauvillier rediscovers his scoring touch with a change of environment. The Canucks have to hope he does, as they’re carrying his cap hit of $4.15 million through next season. They’ll need him to produce as a 20-goal scorer at that price – either to help them contend or to pump up his value as a rental-trade candidate a year from now.

He’s not the most exciting acquisition. And Canucks fans might have preferred another pick to Beauvillier. But that wouldn’t have been realistic, because (a) The Isles needed to send cap space the other way to make the trade work; (b) whether it’s the right path or not, we know the Canucks wanted NHLers in the deal; and (c) Beauvillier was, sadly, the youngest established Islander forward available to acquire at 25. Better than having the Isles toss in 33-year-old Josh Bailey or 31-year-old Kyle Palmieri, right? At least there remains a bit of untapped upside in Beauvillier.

That’s not to say he’s the featured piece. Far from it. Raty is someone to get excited about. He was selected 52^nd overall in the 2021 Draft but would flirt with first-round status today if teams got a do-over. He was highly impressive representing Finland at the World Juniors last season. He has a projectable frame at 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds and a hard, accurate shot. He got 12 games under his belt at the NHL level this season, scoring two goals and more or less breaking even as a 5-on-5 play driver, which is respectable for a rookie. He still has two seasons left after this one on an entry-level AAV. The Canucks desperately need effective young players who can produce during their ELCs.

But while Raty has nice potential, his ceiling isn’t that of a superstar. He could just as easily end up a solid, unspectacular middle-sixer. That’s why the first-round pick is an important element in the trade. Given the Isles’ uncertain future as they stare down a possible second straight playoff miss, the top-12 protection could trigger this year and gift Vancouver an unprotected first-rounder next year.

And if the condition isn’t triggered? That first-rounder could still easily end up in a top-15 selection in an epically great 2023 Draft class. In almost any scenario, it will be a useful pick. That’s what gave the Isles an edge as a suitor over a team like, say, the Boston Bruins, who would’ve been offering a first-rounder so low that it would be a glorified second-rounder.

All in all: the pick, to me, is the best element of this trade. It doesn’t help the “retool” plan much, but maybe it saves Rutherford and Allvin from themselves in that regard. The Canucks also did, technically, go out and secure a solid prospect and a roster player with a bit of upside in the present. Did Rutherford and GM Patrik Allvin hit a homer? No. But it’s a hit.

Grade: B-

NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Receive:

C Bo Horvat, 27, $4.15 million cap hit (Canucks retain 25% of $5.5 million cap hit), 2023 UFA

Grab that VR headset. Load the video game: Lou Lamoriello Experience. Viewed this and only this way: the trade makes sense.

Lamoriello believes his team is a Stanley Cup contender. Even after it missed the playoffs by 16 points in 2021-22, he believed so, to the point he fired legendary coach Barry Trotz, thinking the Isles would course-correct under Lane Lambert, which was curious logic given Lambert was a Trotz acolyte. Lamoriello sacrificed the Isles’ 2022 first-round selection in a trade for defenseman Alexander Romanov. The Isles had a pin-drop quiet offseason after that, infamously whiffing in their pursuit of Johnny Gaudreau.

This time, with an expected extension coming for Horvat, the Isles are essentially “winning” the 2023 UFA sweepstakes by bringing in Horvat. Among the viable league-wide trade targets for contenders in the present, he was as appealing as anyone. He’s a leader who can play in all situations and he has gradually matured into a dominant net-front scorer who excels on the power play. He set a career-high in goals with 31 in 70 games last season and, astoundingly, needed just 47 games to equal that mark this season. Horvat is 27, smack in his prime and on pace for a 52-goal, 90-point season. Of course, he can help an Isles team currently icing the league’s 25^th-ranked offense and 31^st-ranked power play.

OK. Now take off your Lamoriello headset. Let it sink in that a team with the 25th-best offense and 31st-best power play in the NHL believes it is a playoff contender. And these aren’t Barry Trotz’s stingy bend-but-don’t-break Isles, either. Under Lambert, they’re 25^th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 this season, propped up by Ilya Sorokin’s exemplary work in the net. They’re a relatively deep team, with six players, now seven, owning double-digit goal totals this season. They were already rock-solid up the middle with Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Casey Cizikas. They have one of the best goaltenders in the world and a promising long-term top four on ‘D’ in Noah Dobson, Romanov, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock.

But this team is a long way from looking remotely dangerous as a Cup contender in 2022-23, and it’s debatable if Horvat moves the needle. He’s a redundant positional addition for a team that was already strong at center and will force someone to the wing. He’s also in the midst of a major regression — one pretty much everyone saw coming for a guy who was carrying an unsustainable shooting efficiency in the 25 percent range for much of the year. Horvat has scored twice in his past 10 games and once in his past seven games. He was never a 60-goal scorer, nor is he likely to become a 50-goal scorer. He might be a rich man’s Nelson – which is nothing to sneeze at but won’t turn a non-playoff team into a contender.

And if we factor in the probable extension, mimicking what Lamoriello did the day he acquired Pageau in 2020? The Horvat acquisition is still questionable. It will mean paying him into his mid-30s to play for a team that doesn’t appear poised to seriously challenge for a championship while he’s in his 20s. Earlier this month, The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler graded out the Isles prospect pool as the 27^th best in the league, and that was with Raty factored in as their No. 1 prospect. They have not even picked in the first round since 2019 and thus have not been injecting elite talent into their long-term depth chart. In The Hockey News’ Future Watch 2022 last season, the voting panel of NHL team executives only awarded the Isles one prospect in the top 100: Raty at 61^st.

So what you see is largely what you get for the Isles’ long-term core. They could see a prospect like William Dufour blossom into an impact player someday, but there’s no savior coming who will make a splash as Barzal did as a rookie. An extended Horvat would be choosing to saddle up with a team devoting $33 million in cap space solely to forwards older than 30 next season.

It’s thus difficult to see how the Horvat trade makes sense for the Isles. Win-now? Well, you weren’t winning now to begin with, and Horvat doesn’t change that enough. Win later with a Horvat extension factored in? Much of this team’s core is old, and the franchise isn’t positioned to rise toward Stanley Cup contention during Horvat’s prime.

If Horvat does help the Isles squeak into the playoffs, they give up a mid-range first-rounder this year and will grow their streak of drafts without a first-round pick to four. If they continue to struggle, miss the playoffs and land in the top 12 of the draft, they hand over a naked, unprotected first-rounder next year.

See what I’m getting at? Horvat is a good player, but he makes little sense for the Isles within any realistic range of outcomes: playoffs in 2023 or not, extension or not. The trade smells of denial for a team that would be better off getting worse to get better.

Grade: D+

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