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Super Bowl Odds 2023: Early Payout Breakdown and Over/Under Breakdown

Theo Salaun

Boy oh boy. Following a wild Championship Sunday, the Super Bowl is set.

Despite a Patrick Mahomes shoddy ankle and Travis Kelce back spasms, the Kansas City Chiefs clawed past the Cincinnati Bengals to secure the AFC Championship on a game-winning field goal. The Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, punched their ticket to Arizona's State Farm Stadium by beating an injury-laden San Francisco 49ers 31-7.

Now, the big game's storylines are flowing and the odds are already shifting.

Within just an hour of Kansas City's victory, the early Super Bowl lines had fluctuated across, and within, sportsbooks. At first, the Chiefs were widely a 1.5-point favorite and the over/under was 49.5. That spread varied by about three full points in both directions depending on where you looked and the over saw around half-point movement.

At the time of writing, DraftKings has settled on Philadelphia as 2-point favorites and the over/under at 49.5.

Given the health uncertainty surrounding Kansas City and the Eagles' strong Sunday showing, it should be no surprise that the spread shifted toward Philadelphia. Millions saw one, seemingly hurt team win by 3, while a seemingly healthy team won by 24—so it's understandable that the public's early money was placed on the Eagles.

In terms of the spread and moneylines, bettors should expect even more variation as February 12 approaches. With nearly two weeks off, injury updates—particularly for Mahomes's ankle—could push action back toward Kansas City.

For those who are confident that Pat's ankle will bounce back and that Kelce's back questions will be easily remedied, the +130 Chiefs moneyline should be appealing. Given how well they were able to perform in the AFC Championship, at the height of those injury concerns, it has to be the most intriguing value at present.

As for the over/under, Vegas has certainly set a difficult line. But, given recent Super Bowl history, and 2023's playoffs, the under feels like the play at the moment. Three of the past five Super Bowls have finished below this year's early 49.5-point mark. Further, of Kansas City and Philadelphia's combined four games this postseason, none have surpassed a 47-point total.

Nonetheless, the two recent Super Bowl totals that finished above 49.5 points both involved these two clubs. The Eagles beat the New England Patriots 41-33 in 2018 and the Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 in 2020. If Mahomes and Kelce recover quickly enough, the over could be in play. If health concerns aren't eased, the line is likely to move down.

At present, there are no easy answers for this year's Super Bowl. Practically everything is riding on the sprained ankle of 2022-23's projected MVP. That was the case for the AFC Championship, too, though, where Mahomes delivered 334 total yards, two touchdowns and a W.

If you buy in that Pat will be healthy and that Andy Reid will want to get spicy against his former Eagles, the Chiefs moneyline and the over are the early plays. If you think the ankle is going to be a problem, look to the Philadelphia spread and the under. Regardless, keep an eye out, because those lines are going to be moving with every injury report.

   

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