Chiefs OT Orlando Brown Jr. Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Impending Free Agents That NFL Playoff Teams Must Retain in 2023 Free Agency

Kristopher Knox

While teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers may make it look easy, getting back to the NFL postseason is not. Keeping a championship-caliber roster together is actually quite difficult because of free agency and the salary cap.

Of the 14 teams that made the 2022-23 postseason, half are projected to be over the cap in 2023. Additionally, the Eagles, 49ers and Chiefs are projected to have less than $20 million in cap space, while the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants have big-money decisions to make regarding their quarterbacks.

For the Giants and Ravens, those decisions shouldn't be difficult. If they hope to return to the postseason in 2023, New York and Baltimore will likely have to bring back Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson, respectively.

For the 10 teams with less-than-desirable cap situations, the choices won't be as easy. These franchises will have to carefully pick who to retain and who must be let go. Choosing incorrectly could easily leave them out of the postseason next year.

Here, we'll dive into the 10 playoff teams with the worst cap situations and identify the one impending free agent for each who is most critical to a repeat playoff run. Factors like positional value, past performance, upside and roster makeup were all considered here. Entries are listed in alphabetical order by team.

First, though, let's take a quick look at the other four postseason teams.

Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs and Giants

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson G Fiume/Getty Images

The Bengals are facing the best cap situation of any playoff participant. Cincinnati is slated to have $44.5 million in cap space, meaning it can afford to retain players like Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell if it so chooses.

While star quarterback Joe Burrow is eligible for a contract extension this offseason, that extension will likely be tacked onto his rookie deal. This means that the 2023 cap shouldn't be significantly affected.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray signed just such a deal this past offseason. While his extension is for five years and $230 million with $189.5 million guaranteed, his 2022 cap hit was just $12.7 million.

The Giants are right behind Cincinnati with $44.4 million in projected cap space. That number will dwindle if New York brings back Jones and Saquon Barkley, but the Giants are in a fairly good position.

Baltimore is in a much tougher spot. It is projected to have $51.5 million in cap space but will have to spend much more than that to retain Jackson—who has a projected market value of $40.7 million annually.

The Ravens have built their offense around Jackson's skill set, though, so he's clearly Baltimore's top priority in free agency.

The Seattle Seahawk have $31.3 million in projected cap space. While they could look to use the fifth overall pick on a new quarterback—a selection acquired in last year's trade with the Denver Broncos—re-signing Geno Smith appears to be the top priority.

"We'd love to have him back; he knows that," Seahawks general manager John Schneider told The Ian Furness Show (h/t Liz Mathews of Seahawks Wire).

Smith was a Pro Bowler in 2022, so his status as a must-retain player is clear.

Buffalo Bills: LB Tremaine Edmunds

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The Buffalo Bills are projected to be $20.5 million over the cap, and they have several integral free agents scheduled to hit the market.

Running back Devin Singletary, safety Jordan Poyer and backup quarterback Case Keenum are all players whose re-signings would be logical. However, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds possesses a combination of value, production and youth that cannot be dismissed.

Singletary has been a merely serviceable starter, backup QBs are relatively interchangeable, and Poyer will turn 32 in April.

Edmunds, who will turn 25 in May, is already a two-time Pro Bowler and one of the top inside linebackers in the league. While he didn't make the Pro Bowl in 2022, he had another fantastic campaign.

The Virginia Tech product started 13 games and finished with 102 tackles, a sack and an interception. In coverage, he allowed an opposing passer rating (OPR) of just 69.9.

Re-signing Edmunds won't be easy, as he has a projected market value of $11 million annually. However, he's a big-time defensive contributor, a tremendous second-level coverage 'backer and a potential long-term staple for Buffalo.

Dallas Cowboys: RB Tony Pollard

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The Dallas Cowboys, who are projected to be $7.6 million over the cap, have several key players scheduled for free agency. These include Dalton Schultz, Anthony Brown, Leighton Vander Esch, Dante Fowler Jr. and Johnathan Hankins.

However, re-signing running back Tony Pollard should be the top priority. Pollard emerged as a Pro Bowl back this season despite splitting time with Ezekiel Elliott. The 25-year-old is a tremendous dual-threat player and was the more explosive runner (5.2 yards per carry versus 3.8).

When Pollard suffered an ankle sprain and fractured fibula against the 49ers in the divisional round, the offense suffered. He carried six times for 22 yards, and the Cowboys rushed for just 54 yards without him.

Pollard, who racked up 1,007 rushing yards, 371 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in the regular season, has become one of the most important pieces in Dallas' offense. While Pollard's injury required surgery, he should be healthy by training camp, according to ESPN's Todd Archer.

Dallas may have to make the tough choice between Pollard—who has a projected market value of $9 million annually—and Elliott this offseason. Cutting Elliott with a post-June 1 designation would save $10.9 million off the cap.

If the Cowboys are faced with that decision, they should choose Pollard.

Jacksonville Jaguars: TE Evan Engram

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The Jacksonville Jaguars are set to be $32.3 million over the cap. Their list of impending free agents includes wideout Marvin Jones Jr., defensive end Dawuane Smoot, defensive lineman Adam Gotsis and pass-rusher Arden Key.

However, tight end Evan Engram should take priority over all of Jacksonville's other free agents. The Jags are looking to build around quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and Engram had a hugely positive impact on Lawrence's development in 2022.

Engram quickly became one of Lawrence's favorite targets and finished the season with 73 catches, 766 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He provided a passer rating of 110.3 when targeted.

In the playoffs, Engram's value was on display. During Jacksonville's epic comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers, he caught seven passes for 93 yards and a score. The Jags probably don't win that game without Engram in the lineup.

The 28-year-old is still young enough to continue aiding Lawrence well into the future.

While Engram won't come cheaply—he has a projected market value of $8.8 million annually—Jacksonville would be wise to keep Lawrence's top security blanket in the fold.

Kansas City Chiefs: OT Orlando Brown Jr.

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The Chiefs are projected to have $12 million in cap space available, and while they'll likely need to clear a little more room to re-sign Orlando Brown Jr., it's unquestionably a move Kansas City should make.

Brown, who played on the franchise tag in 2022, is a four-time Pro Bowler who has earned all-star honors at both left and right tackle. Acquired in a 2021 trade with the Ravens, Brown has spent his time in Kansas City on Patrick Mahomes' blind side.

And Brown continues to fare extremely well. This season, he was responsible for only four sacks allowed, according to Pro Football Focus. He's one of the most consistent tackles in the league, and at 26 years old, he could be a Chiefs staple for the foreseeable future.

Keeping Brown is important because protecting Mahomes is important. While Kansas City fielded a fairly complete team this year, Mahomes is still the core of its roster. This is why the Chiefs must re-sign Brown before turning their attention to other impending free agents like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Carlos Dunlap, Mecole Hardman and valuable backup Chad Henne.

Los Angeles Chargers: LB Drue Tranquill

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The Chargers don't have many notable players headed to the open market, though wideout Jalen Guyton has shown flashes when healthy, right tackle Trey Pipkins is a solid starter and Chase Daniel is a reliable backup quarterback.

Linebacker Drue Tranquill is a player Los Angeles shouldn't let get away, however. While he's not a household name, he's one of the most underrated linebackers in the league. A strong run-stopper who can also rush the quarterback, Tranquill emerged as a key cog in the Chargers defense this season.

The 27-year-old finished the year with 146 tackles, 95 solo stops, a forced fumble, an interception, five sacks and eight quarterback hits.

The Chargers, who ranked dead-last in yards per carry allowed (5.4), already need to improve their run defense to make another run. Letting go of a player who nearly logged triple-digit solo tackles would be a step in the wrong direction.

Financially, keeping Tranquill could be a challenge, as the Chargers are set to be $19.8 million over the cap. With a projected market value of just $4 million annually, though, Tranquill is a player L.A. should be able to fit into its budget.

Miami Dolphins: LB Elandon Roberts

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A case could be made for Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki, who had a 780-yard campaign in 2021 and played on the franchise tag in 2022. However, Gesicki (362 yards, 5 TDs) was utilized less in Mike McDaniel's offense than he was previously and should be viewed as replaceable.

Committee running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. should also be replaceable in free agency or the draft.

The same cannot be said for 28-year-old linebacker Elandon Roberts. The former New England Patriots standout was a 17-game starter this season and finished with 107 tackles and 4.5 sacks. While he can be a liability in coverage (121.9 OPR in 2022), Roberts is a strong two-down run defender.

Miami's ability to stop the run (sixth in yards per carry allowed) played a big role in getting to the postseason. It also played a role in nearly upsetting the Bills in the wild-card round—Buffalo running backs combined for just 87 yards on 22 carries.

While Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill get a lot of the credit for the Dolphins' playoff run, Miami's 18th-ranked defense did its fair share. Roberts was a key contributor and should not be allowed to hit the open market.

The Dolphins are set to be $12.8 million over the cap. However, Roberts' projected market value of $2.4 million is more than reasonable.

Minnesota Vikings: DT Dalvin Tomlinson

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The Minnesota Vikings are projected to be $21 million over the cap, and if they're able to create room, they should focus on fixing their 31st-ranked defense. Minnesota's inability to stop opposing offenses led directly to their upset loss against the Giants in the wild-card round.

One defender who should stick around is defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson. The 28-year-old was a force against both the run and the pass in 2022, finishing with 42 tackles, 2.5 sacks and 14 quarterback pressures.

Good defensive tackles aren't easy to find, especially those on the under side of 30. This puts Tomlinson in a different category than 32-year-old corner Patrick Peterson.

Other key contributors eying free agency include kicker Greg Joseph, who made just 78.8 percent of his field-goal attempts this season, and center Garrett Bradbury. A case could be made for Bradbury, though the 2019 first-round pick has been merely serviceable, dealt with a back injury in 2022 and had his fifth-year option declined.

Tomlinson, who has a projected market value of $8.5 million annually, is the player Minnesota must retain if it can make things work financially.

Philadelphia Eagles: DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson

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The Eagles have several key players headed to market, including Fletcher Cox, Jason Kelce, James Bradberry, Miles Sanders, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Javon Hargrave and Brandon Graham. They're also set to have just $4.8 million in cap space.

Philadelphia prepared for the eventual departures of Cox and Kelce when it took defensive tackle Jordan Davis and center Cameron Jurgens in the 2022 draft. Players like Graham, Hargrave, Bradberry, Sanders and Gardner-Johnson won't be easy to replace.

Ideally, the Eagles will find a way to bring back multiple free agents. If they have to pick only one, though, Gardner-Johnson is the logical choice.

Graham is 34 years old, while Hargrave and Bradberry will both turn 30 this year. Sanders is a Pro Bowl running back and just 25 years old. However, Philadelphia has a solid backup in Kenneth Gainwell and should be able to find young, cheap running back talent in the draft.

With an elite dual-threat quarterback in Jalen Hurts, running back shouldn't be Philadelphia's top priority anyway.

Gardner-Johnson, meanwhile, is a versatile safety and slot corner who just turned 25 last month. The Florida product tied for the league lead in interceptions with six and finished the year with 67 tackles, eight passes defended and a sack. He allowed an OPR of only 78.4 in coverage.

While Gardner-Johnson did miss time with a lacerated kidney, he returned for the playoffs. This was undoubtedly the tough decision for us to make because of the sheer amount of talent Philadelphia has headed to market. However, Gardner-Johnson's rare combination of proven production, positional versatility, upside and youth makes him the Eagles' pick.

San Francisco 49ers: S Tashaun Gipson

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Safety Tashaun Gipson may seem like an odd choice here, as he was a late offseason addition and was only elevated from the practice squad just before Week 1. However, he emerged as a San Francisco star in 2022, starting all 17 games and finishing with five interceptions, eight passes defended, 61 tackles and a half-sack.

The 32-year-old allowed an OPR of just 63.8 in coverage.

While Gipson is on the older side, his production will be very difficult to replace. The same could be said for kicker Robbie Gould, though he's 40 years old and less likely to be in the team's long-term plans.

A case could be made for right tackle Mike McGlinchey, though he was arguably a weak link on San Francisco's dominant offensive line. McGlinchey did start all 17 games, but he was also responsible for 10 penalties and six sacks surrendered, according to Pro Football Focus.

Considering McGlinchey's projected market value of $10.7 million annually, the 49ers should be in the market for a cheaper alternative.

Gipson should be a much more budget-friendly option. That's important for the 49ers, who have a modest $13.7 million in projected cap space with which to work.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: QB Tom Brady

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Realistically, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may not be back in the playoffs next year. The Bucs have several key players—including linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Deal—slated for free agency, and they're projected to be $55.7 million over the cap.

Tampa also awaits a decision from 45-year-old quarterback Tom Brady. The future Hall of Famer could retire this offseason or could choose to play for another team. If he plays but it's not in Tampa, he'll count $35.1 million against the 2023 cap. If he retires, though, that money can be spread over the next two seasons.

There's a chance that Brady simply doesn't want to be back in Tampa next season. However, former teammate Rob Gronkowski recently told NSPN (h/t Caleb Skinner of FanNation) that he believes the quarterback would rather return than join the Las Vegas Raiders—a team reportedly eying Brady.

Because of the cap implications, and because Brady is still an above-average quarterback who knows the roster well, he's the most important free agent Tampa could possibly re-sign.

That's assuming Brady wants to return, of course, but if the Buccaneers are rebuilding without him, a 2023 run feels like an extreme long shot.

Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. Cap, contract and market information via Spotrac.

   

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