Brad Wachtel is hesitant to use the word “lock” to describe where any program stands in the NCAA Tournament picture, especially before the calendar has flipped to February. There are too many variables at play — devastating injuries, catastrophic losses, sudden collapses and stunning rises — that can shift the trajectory of the final month of the campaign.
But the acclaimed bracketologist sure does feel good about how a few résumés are shaping up as the home stretch of the regular season approaches.
Count Rutgers among that group.
Sure, the Scarlet Knights (14-7, 6-4) still have some landmines in their path, and they are not immune to “the worst-case scenario” of an unexpected injury taking the season off the rails. But considering its solid résumé and the fact it is given a 99.5% of making the field by Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast projections, Rutgers can mostly breathe easy.
“They’re not a lock yet,” Wachtel said. “That being said, they’re in excellent shape.”
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The final 10 games of the regular season, Wachtel said, serve more to determine what seed the Scarlet Knights will get rather than whether it will get an at-large bid at all.
Most bracketology projections — including Wachtel’s acclaimed Facts and Bracks, which ranks among the industry’s most reputable — have Rutgers as a five-seed entering February. It would mark the highest NCAA Tournament seed in program history, surpassing the six-seed it received in the 1979 tournament.
To keep pace with those projections, the Scarlet Knights will need to hold serve at home by winning its final four games at Jersey Mike’s Arena (the Golden Gophers, Nebraska, Michigan and Northwestern) and then beef up its record away from Piscataway (2-5 in road/neutral games) and in Quadrant One opportunities (4-4).
There is a trio of landmines remaining on the schedule, with Wednesday night’s home meeting with Minnesota (221st in the NCAA NET rankings) being the biggest. Falling squarely in dreaded Q4 territory, a loss to the Golden Gophers would not be a “Lafayette-level” catastrophe that would jeopardize its chances of making the tournament, but it could cost the Scarlet Knights a seed-line or two, Wachtel said. Tripping on either of the other two landmines — Q3 meetings with the Golden Gophers on the road and at home against Nebraska (99) — would make a dent in the résumé, too.
Assuming Rutgers wins all three of those games as projected, the highest-possible seed it can aspire to reach is a three-seed, Wachtel said. But that would require a trio of big-time wins in a short span along with some sputtering from teams standing above them.
Saturday’s meeting with Michigan State at Madison Square Garden kicks off the brutal stretch. It will be the Scarlet Knights’ best opportunity to snag a big win away from home because, despite being played at a venue 38 miles from Piscataway, it is being designated as a neutral-site contest. Then come back-to-back road games against Illinois and Indiana — talented teams making a push for a top-four finish in the Big Ten standings — in the first week of February. Win all three games in a seven-day stretch, and a three-seed is in play.
A much more realistic goal, and a key one the Scarlet Knights should strive for, is a four-seed. That finish would give Rutgers a strong chance of landing in the East Regional, which would provide the priceless opportunity of spending the first two rounds of the tournament in Albany, New York, and a second weekend at MSG if they advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
“That should be their goal,” Wachtel said. “Because if you can put Rutgers in the East at Madison Square Garden, then you can really start dreaming.”
For that to happen, the Scarlet Knights will need to sweep their remaining home games, avoid all three landmines, likely add another signature road win or two (@ Indiana, @ Illinois, vs. Michigan State) and hope its non-conference opponents keep on winning.
Temple, which handed Rutgers its only Q3/4 loss this season at Mohegan Sun, is doing its part. Standing in second place in the AAC after winning eight of its first 10 conference games — including a road victory over then-No. 1 Houston — the Owls are inching towards Q2 territory, standing just 16 spots outside of it on Monday morning.
Seton Hall (57), winners of six of their last eight games, are firmly in Q2 territory as well.
“You want to stack your Q1 wins for sure, but other than that, aside from when you get to the Big Ten Tournament, a lot of these games aren’t going to move them up much at all,” Wachtel said. “When you’re worried about seeding, it’s the same as the bubble. You’re really worried about how the teams around you are playing. Who are the projected four-seeds, the five-seeds? How are they playing? Teams can jump you if they pick up a really good win.”
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That picture will clear up significantly as the regular season reaches its end. The next five weeks will be crucial in determining where and against who the Scarlet Knights will be facing in their third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Because while Wachtel will not call Rutgers or anyone else a lock to participate in March Madness, the fact he is discussing where the Scarlet Knights will land in the field and not whether they will get in at all is a good sign.
“So much can happen over the course of the remainder of the season, so much can happen in the course of two weeks,” Wachtel said. “I don’t think I see them falling worse than an 8/9 seed. But it is such a hypothetical, so much can happen. As long as they hold serve at home, I do see them in that 5-6 seed range.”
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Brian Fonseca may be reached at bfonseca@njadvancemedia.com.
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