This year’s fascinating Super Bowl quarterback matchup is set, as the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts will face the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes — two young stars who figure to thrive for years to come.
Meanwhile, the Giants are trying to build around their quarterback, Daniel Jones, a pending free agent who definitely will return in 2023.
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Joe Schoen, the Giants’ second-year general manager, has said his goal is to build around Jones, while hoping he can lead them to a fifth Super Bowl championship.
First, of course, the Giants have to get past the Eagles in the NFC (and more specifically, NFC East) pecking order, in the wake of Philadelphia blasting coach Brian Daboll’s team twice in 2022.
Schoen figures to apply the franchise tag to Jones this offseason, in order to essentially lock him in for 2023. Tagging Jones would give Schoen until mid-July to work out a long-term contract with Jones. But if Jones’ contract demands aren’t to Schoen’s liking, might Schoen decide to wait until after next season to see if he actually wants to pay Jones huge money?
It’s a question worth considering. While Jones was productive last season, he really hadn’t shown any consistent signs before 2022 that he could be a franchise quarterback. And it’s not like Jones was truly elite this past season. He was inarguably very good — much better than he’s ever been in the NFL — but he still finished 14th in quarterback rating, compared to 26th in 2021.
Does Schoen really think, for sure, that Jones — with upgraded weapons around him — can win a Super Bowl? Schoen just might. And if he’s fully committed to Jones, he could wind up giving him, say, $80 million to $90 million guaranteed this offseason.
But what if Schoen is still skeptical? What if he wants to see more?
Schoen always has the option of making Jones play the 2023 season on a one-year contract for the franchise tag figure ($32.445 million).
There are obvious drawbacks to that. It’s a huge salary cap figure that would limit Schoen’s ability to spend big in free agency this offseason, presuming he’s even inclined to do that. A long-term contract would lower Jones’ 2023 cap hit, but also would lock the Giants in with him past 2023 — and maybe past 2024, depending on the deal’s guaranteed money structure.
Having Jones play out 2023 on a tag contract would give Schoen flexibility to move on from him.
And here is where it’s worth noting that it’s completely foolish revisionist history to say Schoen made a mistake last offseason by declining Jones’ fifth-year option for 2023. Jones had shown nothing, at that point, to prove he deserved $22.38 million fully guaranteed in 2023. Schoen made the right call waiting until after 2022 to determine if Jones deserved to stick around.
As for the baseline value of a potential Jones long-term deal, well, you just have to look at the tag number for 2023 — and what it would be in 2024, if Schoen tagged him again. Jones’ second tag would be 120% of the first — $38.934 million. Add the first tag figure, and that gives you $71.379 million — an average of $35.689 million.
That’s why you’re seeing chatter about Jones getting a deal with baseline average annual value of $35 million (and at least $70 million fully guaranteed). It’s simple math and logic, based on what the franchise tag would cost Schoen in each of the next two seasons.
Plus, the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins makes $35 million per year (on average), and Jones just beat him in the playoffs, before the Eagles smacked the Giants in the divisional round.
Because of all that, Jones surely will not settle for anything less than those numbers — $35 million in average annual value and $70 million fully guaranteed. And it’s likely he wants well north of $70 million guaranteed. (Remember this: Fully — or practically fully — guaranteed money is all that matters in an NFL contract. Average annual value does not matter as much.)
But let’s say Schoen tags Jones (which seems inevitable) and the two sides aren’t able to hammer out a long-term deal by the mid-July deadline. That would mean Schoen still has lingering skepticism about how much he truly values Jones’ services.
It’s obvious that Schoen could move on from Jones quickly if he stinks while playing under that tag contract in 2023. But even if Jones excels, Schoen has the ability to tag him again — and continue to maintain exclusive negotiating rights, as Schoen and Jones work toward a contract in 2024.
Bottom line: No one can say with certainty right now that Jones is a Super Bowl quarterback. He has not performed to the MVP level of either quarterback in this year’s Super Bowl — though both obviously have a superior supporting cast, which always helps a quarterback reach his potential.
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And while some of that stems from the Giants’ wide receiver and offensive line issues in 2022 — since Jones didn’t exactly have a ton of help — it doesn’t change this reality: If Schoen gives Jones a long-term deal this offseason, he’ll be doing quite a bit of projecting with his quarterback.
Does Schoen actually trust that Jones will take the next step and perform even better in 2023, as the Giants try to get past the divisional round of the playoffs and eventually win it all again?
Or should Schoen want to see more, before making a long-term commitment?
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Darryl Slater may be reached at dslater@njadvancemedia.com.
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