The head of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Sunday reluctantly agreed with an Air Force general’s prediction that the United States would go to war with China in 2025 over Taiwan.
House Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), appearing on “Fox News Sunday,” weighed in on four-star Gen. Mike Minihan’s grim warning after NBC News reported Minihan wrote in a Friday memo to officers that while he hopes he’s wrong, “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”
“I hope he’s wrong as well,” McCaul said. “I think he’s right, though, unfortunately.”
The Republican added that war is likelier if President Biden is in office and “projecting weakness.”
McCaul explained that China is eyeing “reunification” with nearby Taiwan and could achieve that goal by influencing Taiwanese elections in 2024.
If that fails, fighting could break out, he said.
“They are going to look at a military invasion, in my judgment,” McCaul told Fox of China. “We have to be prepared for this.
“I think as long as Biden is in office projecting weakness as he did with Afghanistan that led to Putin invading Ukraine, that the odds are very high that we could see a conflict with China and Taiwan and the Indo Pacific,” McCaul said.
The Department of Defense has downplayed Minihan’s memo, with a rep noting, “These comments are not representative of the department’s view on China.”
A Democrat who is a ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee disagreed with Minihan’s and McCaul’s prediction of fighting.
“Anything is possible, I’m really worried, though, when anyone starts talking about war with China being inevitable,” Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said on the Fox program. “And I want to be completely clear it’s not only not inevitable, it’s highly unlikely.”
Smith said generals should be cautious in their comments about China.
“I don’t think we should be out there telling the world that we’re going to war with China most importantly because we’re not,” Smith said.
“We have interests, we have to be in a position to deter China. War is not inevitable. It’s a very dangerous situation that we need to be prepared for, but I’m fully confident that we can avoid that conflict if we take the right approach.”
