A stripe of snow will blanket a large part of central Lower Michigan. Here’s a look at exactly how much snow you can expect at your location by Sunday morning.
All of the data we have is very consistent down to the location and amounts of snowfall tonight. As a result, a winter weather advisory shows you exactly where 4 to 6 inches of snow will fall.
Grand Rapids, Lansing, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Muskegon, Midland, Pentwater, Ludington, Mount Pleasant, Clare, Gladwin, Standish, Tawas, Oscoda and Alpena are all in the winter weather advisory for up to 6 inches of snow. The winter weather advisory is for snow falling between 7 p.m. tonight and 10 a.m. Sunday.
Kalamazoo, Jackson, Ann Arbor, Oakland County and Detroit are not in the winter weather advisory. Snow amounts will be much lower along the I-94 corridor due to warmer temperatures and some occasional rain mixed with the snow.
Here’s the radar forecast. Ignore the look of rain at the start of the precipitation. For the winter weather advisory area it will be all snow.
Snow starts between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. on the west side of the state and Grand Rapids. It should be snowing on the east side of the state, including Saginaw and Bay City, by 7 p.m. today.
Look at how similar the two best snowfall models are at this time. The axis of heaviest snow will be centered from Grand Rapids to Alma to Saginaw, Bay City and Midland. This swath of snow will pile up to between 4 and 6 inches.
Just below is the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model(HRRR). It’s usually the most accurate when snow is upon us and ending within 24 hours. Notice it is somewhat heavier with some 8 inch to 9 inch forecasts. This is probably a little bit heavy, but gives us the idea that a swath of 6 inches is likely. It also says an isolated 7 inch total is possible in the heaviest swath.
In both forecasts the snow amounts taper off rapidly as you go south. Flint and Lansing are just south of the 6 inch swath and can expect 3 to 4 inches. The snowfall expectation really drops going south through Oakland County. Detroit, Ann Arbor, Jackson and Kalamazoo should expect 1 inch or less of snow.
The snowfall amounts also taper off going north through Cadillac and Traverse City. Snow will only amount to 2 to 4 inches across northern Lower Michigan.
The snow will be heaviest in the middle of the night, and over by 10 a.m. Sunday.
Driving will obviously be dangerous after dark this evening in the solid snow area across central Lower Michigan. Driving conditions will improve some Sunday afternoon. Cold temperatures will still keep some packed snow and icy patches on roadways.
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