ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 27th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Friday's games
Tempted By Timberwolves: The Minnesota Timberwolves are 7-2 ATS this season as a home underdog, a spot they find themselves in tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that is 3-7 ATS over their past 10 road games. The total also comes with a pair of interesting trends: only twice in those nine Minnesota games has there been more than 235 points scored and unders are 8-4-1 in the past 13 Memphis failures to cover.
Dinosaur Love: The Toronto Raptors are 7-1 ATS this season when catching more than three points with the lone loss coming in a game in which the Grizzlies (the top paint scoring team in the NBA) scored 70 (!) interior points against them. Toronto opened tonight as a 5.5-point underdog against the Golden State Warriors, the second lowest scoring term in terms of paint points per game.
Milwaukee Money: Backing the Milwaukee Bucks rarely takes a hard sell, but in games with elevated totals, it's almost an auto-bet. In games with a projected total north of 227 points this season, the Bucks are 12-5-1 ATS, a strong mark that is even stronger when you consider that they are 13-15-2 ATS in all other games.
Don't Overthink It: We routinely champion the best values in fantasy hoops, even at the expense of repetition. The Indiana Pacers' T.J. McConnell merits such endorsement, as he's still a free agent in more than 70% of ESPN leagues despite averaging nearly 16 points and nine dimes over the past week. With Tyrese Haliburton still ailing, McConnell is projected to top six fantasy points per $1,000 spent on DraftKings against the , a key indicator of production profit.
Riding with Raptors: It's a relatively light five-game Friday for DFS players, with just three players with five-figure salaries for the evening; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Ja Morant. While all three are in good spots tonight, a pivot to Pascal Siakam and/or Fred VanVleet could prove savvy given the Toronto Raptors face an up-tempo Sacramento Kings team. Siakam, after all, produced nearly 61 DraftKings points last time against the Kings, while "FVV" is on a heater from the floor of late with at least 49 DraftKings points in four of his past five and at least 60 such points twice over this sample.
Stream Team: A former All-Star guard is starting to shine in South Beach, as the Miami Heat's Victor Oladipo has thrived in a larger role in recent weeks. Facing the Orlando Magic this evening, the team that drafted him second overall in 2013, it's worth noting Oladipo has slashed for 14.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.8 combined steals and blocks during his past 13 appearances for Miami. You can still find him in free agency in three-quarters of ESPN leagues. It's also still time to find room on your roster for Kyle Anderson (81% available). The Minnesota Timberwolves are getting great minutes from "Slow Mo" lately, including fun passing production and nearly elite defensive rates over the past few weeks.
-- Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Game of the Night
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California
Records (Against the Spread)
Raptors: 22-27 (25-24-0)
Warriors: 24-24 (22-25-1)
Line: Warriors (-5.5)
BPI Projection: Warriors (117.9-114.6)
Money Line: Raptors (+175), Warriors (-210)
BPI Projected winner: Warriors (62.1%)
Total: 234.5 points BPI Projected Total: 232.5 points
Injury Report:
Raptors: Dalano Banton, (GTD - Hip); Otto Porter Jr., (OUT - Foot)
Warriors: Andre Iguodala, (GTD - Hip); Andrew Wiggins, (GTD - Illness)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Pascal Siakam over 30.5 total points + assists. Siakam has averaged 26.3 PPG over his past three outings and 8.0 APG over his past four. The last time he faced the Warriors on Dec. 18, he scored 27 points with five assists. -- Snellings
Best bet: Fred VanVleet over 19.5 points. VanVleet only scored 17 points in his last outing but averaged 31.3 PPG over the prior four games. The Warriors allow the fifth-most points to opposing point guards (6.0 PPG) and VanVleet scored 22 points in Raptors last game against the Warriors this season. -- Snellings
Best bet: Over 234.5 points. The Warriors have been particularly strong from 3-point range this season. They have the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage (56.7%) and lead the league in 3-point attempts. The total has gone over in three of the Raptors past five games so this should be a high-scoring matchup. -- Moody
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 31-17 (25-20-3)
Pacers: 24-26 (27-23-0)
Line: Bucks (-8.5)
BPI Projection: Bucks (118.6-114.5)
Money Line: Bucks (-355), Pacers (+278)
BPI Projected winner: Bucks (64.4%)
Total: 239 points BPI Projected Total: 233.1 points
Injury Report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Knee); MarJon Beauchamp, (GTD - Knee); Bobby Portis, (OUT - Knee); Serge Ibaka, (OUT - Personal)
Pacers: Aaron Nesmith, (GTD - Wrist); Andrew Nembhard, (GTD - Illness); Myles Turner, (GTD - Ankle); Daniel Theis, (OUT - Knee); Tyrese Haliburton, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Fantasy streamer: Chris Duarte (available in 95.9% of leagues) Duarte has shown signs of life lately after an incredibly slow start to the season. He started the past two games with Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton out and played well in both games. Duarte has had five strong games in his past seven outings, including a 25-point effort in 30 minutes off the bench against the Grizzlies and a career-high six steals, 16 points, five assists and two 3-pointers in his most recent outing. -- Snellings
Fantasy streamer: T.J. McConnell (rostered in 28.3% of ESPN leagues). McConnell has scored 36 or more fantasy points is seven of his past nine games, including three games with 50 or more fantasy points over that stretch. While the Bucks are a stout defensive team, ranking second in points allowed per 100 possessions, that shouldn't stop fantasy managers in need of a point guard from adding McConnell. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Pat Connaughton (rostered in 3.6% of ESPN leagues). Connaughton is still fantasy relevant even with Khris Middleton back in the rotation. He scored 52 fantasy points against the Nuggets on Wednesday and has averaged 11.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists over the past 12 games. He is firmly on the streaming radar for Friday night against Pacers team that ranks 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Moody
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points. Antetokounmpo had averaged 39.1 PPG earlier this month before a sore knee slowed him down. His points prop was typically set around 34.5 during that span. He scored 29 points in 27 minutes in his first game back on Monday and then dropped 33 points in 31 minutes on Wednesday. Antetokounmpo seems to have regained his explosiveness as a scorer as his minutes are creeping back up to normal. The Pacers don't have the girth or defensive prowess inside to stop him from achieving his typical level of success. -- Snellings
Best bet: Jrue Holiday over 32.5 points + assists + rebounds.Holiday is in a great spot against a Pacers team that will be without Tyrese Haliburton. Holiday has averaged 24.9 points, 8.0 assists, and 4.5 rebounds over the past eight games. -- Moody
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves
7:30 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 31-17 (23-22-3)
Timberwolves: 25-25 (23-27-0)
Line: Grizzlies (-3)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies (120.1-120)
Money Line: Grizzlies (-155), Timberwolves (+130)
BPI Projected winner: Grizzlies (50.3%)
Total: 238.5 points BPI Projected Total: 240.1 points
Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Desmond Bane, (GTD - Knee); John Konchar, (OUT - Concussion); Danny Green, (OUT - Knee); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee)
Timberwolves: Rudy Gobert, (GTD - Groin); Jordan McLaughlin, (OUT - Calf); Taurean Prince, (OUT - Ankle); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT - Calf)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Fantasy streamer: Brandon Clarke (available in 51.0% of leagues) Clarke moved into the starting lineup in place of the injured Steven Adams, and in his first start scored 19 points with 8 rebounds, two assists and a steal. He's flashed in limited minutes of late, including his game last Friday where he produced 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks and 1 steal in 22 minutes off the bench. -- Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Tyus Jones (rostered in 12.2% of ESPN leagues) Jones is on the streaming radar with Desmond Bane questionable and John Konchar out. Jones has scored 22 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games and averaged 18.3 points and 8.1 assists per 40 minutes this season. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Kyle Anderson (rostered in 19.9% of ESPN leagues) Anderson should see significant minutes with Rudy Gobert questionable and Taurean Prince out. Anderson has averagesd 12.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.1 assists per 40 minutes this season. -- Moody
Best bet: Timberwolves +3.0. The Timberwolves have won three of their past four and nine of their past 13 games, settling into their identity as an offense led by Anthony Edwards. The Grizzlies were the hottest team in the NBA a week ago but have lost four straight and are struggling to get back on track. Given the trends of both teams, including the injuries that have Steven Adams out and Desmond Bane questionable, I like the Timberwolves to cover at home. According to ESPN's BPI game predictor, this game projects more as a pick 'em than a game where either team should be giving three points. -- Snellings
Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 27.5 points. Edwards has averaged 29.6 PPG in his last eight games, going over 27.5 points in five of those games, including the last three in a row. In those three games, he's averaged 37.3 PPG and 6.0 3PG. Edwards is on a heater, and when his jumper is working, there isn't much opponents can do to slow his outside/in game. -- Snellings
Best bet: D'Angelo Russell over 26.5 points + assists. Russell has surpassed this total in three of his late four games. Due to the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, Jordan McLaughlin, and Taurean Prince, he should continue to have a high usage rate for the Timberwolves. Additionally, Rudy Gobert is questionable, which bodes well for Russell. -- Moody
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Records (Against the Spread)
Magic: 19-29 (27-19-2)
Heat: 27-22 (19-27-3)
Line: Heat (-8)
BPI Projection: Heat (120.1-108)
Money Line: Magic (+250), Heat (-320)
BPI Projected winner: Heat (67.5%)
Total: 219 points BPI Projected Total: 224 points
Injury Report:
Magic: Chuma Okeke, (OUT - Knee)
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD - Quadriceps); Haywood Highsmith, (GTD - Lower Leg); Max Strus, (GTD - Shoulder); Duncan Robinson, (OUT - Finger); Nikola Jovic, (OUT - Back); Omer Yurtseven, (OUT - Ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Magic +8.0. Throughout the season, the Heat have been up and down, playing down to the level of their opponents. Miami will do the same against the Magic on Friday. In their last 11 road games, Orlando is 8-3 against the spread while the Heat are 8-15-2 at home. I'm backing the Magic. -- Moody
Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Records (Against the Spread)
Cavaliers: 30-20 (25-23-2)
Thunder: 23-25 (31-17-0)
Line: Thunder (-1)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers (116-113.8)
Money Line: Cavaliers (-105), Thunder (-115)
BPI Projected winner: Cavaliers (58.2%)
Total: 223.5 points BPI Projected Total: 229.8 points
Injury Report:
Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell, (GTD - Groin); Kevin Love, (GTD - Back); Dylan Windler, (OUT - Hamstring)
Thunder: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, (OUT - Ankle); Luguentz Dort, (OUT - Hamstring); Aleksej Pokusevski, (OUT - Lower Leg); Chet Holmgren, (OUT - Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Fantasy streamer: Kenrich Williams (rostered in 2.0% of ESPN leagues) is positioned for a monster performance against the Cavaliers with Lu Dort already ruled out due to a right hamstring strain. When given minutes, Williams performs well. This season, he averages 13.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per 40 minutes. -- Moody