Three of the four teams that advanced to the NFL's conference championship round last year made it back in 2023. Once again, the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers stand one step away from a Super Bowl appearance. But we shouldn't treat the Philadelphia Eagles like strangers to the title scene. They hoisted a Lombardi Trophy just five years ago.

NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, Kris Knox, Brad Gagnon and Maurice Moton, editor Wes O'Donnell and B/R Betting host of Winners Only Wednesdays Greg Ivory split down the line with their conference championship picks against the spread, with one expert getting the deciding selection.

The public is leaning heavily toward the Eagles (68 percent of bets) over the 49ers and the Bengals (70 percent of bets) over the Chiefs. Does our crew agree?

Before we break down the matchups, take a look at the betting playoff leaderboard with Sobleski coming off a perfect (4-0) weekend:

1. Sobleski: 6-4 (4-0)

T-2. O'Donnell: 5-5 (2-2)

T-2. Gagnon: 5-5 (2-2)

T-2. Moton: 5-5 (2-2)

T-5. Knox: 4-6 (3-1)

T-5. Ivory: 4-6 (2-2)

7. Davenport: 3-7 (2-2)

Consensus picks: 4-6

No. 2 San Francisco 49ers (15-4) at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Philadelphia Eagles injuries to watch: The Eagles have a couple of banged-up key players, but nothing major to worry about. Quarterback Jalen Hurts said, "I've felt better, but it doesn't really matter. Gotta get it done," in a Wednesday press conference. He'll continue to play through a shoulder sprain but didn't appear on the injury report. Right tackle Lane Johnson (groin) missed the Eagles' final two regular-season games but returned for the divisional-round matchup with the New York Giants. He's practiced with limitations. Cornerback Avonte Maddox (toe) hasn't played since Week 16, but he's gone through limited practices this week.

San Francisco 49ers injuries to watch: Head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who broke his foot early in December, won't play Sunday, which rules out two-quarterback looks for the 49ers. Left tackle Trent Williams opened the week with a rest day. Running backs Christian McCaffrey (calf) and Elijah Mitchell (groin) didn't practice Wednesday. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel (ankle) and cornerback Ambry Thomas (ankle) started the week with limited sessions. Shanahan told reporters he'll "let the legal process take care of itself" as it pertains to defensive lineman Charles Omenihu's arrest on suspicion of misdemeanor domestic violence. The 49ers' lead skipper also said Omenihu (oblique) will play if he's healthy.

In a nutshell: The 49ers ride a 12-game winning streak into Philadelphia, and third-string quarterback Brock Purdy's unblemished starting record is 7-0. Last week, against the Cowboys' eighth-ranked pass defense, the rookie signal-caller finished his first start without a touchdown pass. In Philadelphia, he'll face an even stingier unit that gave up the fewest passing yards this season.

For the 2022 campaign, Hurts has only lost one game as a starter (Week 10 vs. the Washington Commanders). Perhaps head coach Nick Sirianni didn't exaggerate much when he compared his starting quarterback's impact to what Michael Jordan brought to championship Chicago Bulls squads.

Random tidbit: Under Shanahan, the 49ers have a 6-2 postseason record, with both losses to the Super Bowl champion in that year (Kansas City Chiefs in 2019 and Los Angeles Rams in 2021).

The Pick: 49ers (+2.5)

Moton: The Eagles roster doesn't have a glaring weakness, but they have struggled in one particular area that the 49ers seem equipped to exploit Sunday.

Despite the addition of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh in November, the Eagles have allowed 115-plus rushing yards in six consecutive outings and surrendered 4.6 yards per carry (ranked 24th) for the 2022 season, which doesn't bode well for them in a matchup with the 49ers' eighth-ranked ground attack.

Shanahan will find 10 different ways to run the ball with McCaffrey, Mitchell and Samuel, grinding down the Eagles' interior defense en route to victory.

49ers 24, Eagles 21

O'Donnell: This one is a bit scary. Purdy is 7-0 as a starter and the 49ers haven't lost since October. Twelve straight wins—the other shoe has to drop eventually, right? No rookie QB has ever completed a pass in the Super Bowl let alone start the big game. We're not there yet, but history, it appears, is very much against San Francisco here.

And, on the other side of the field, is an Eagles team that looks every bit of a juggernaut. With a defense that notched 70 sacks and set an NFL record of four players with double digits in that category, as well as an MVP finalist under center (Hurts); they deserve to be here.

It's an evenly matched tilt with a line that makes sense. The points aren't irrelevant, but this game feels like a pick 'em. It's unlikely the 49ers will lose without the wheels coming off a bit in the face of this defense, so if you're taking the Eagles to win, you're expecting (hoping?) they'll cover too.

Not me, though. No cover. No win for Philly. I'm going completely the other way, feeling comfortable enough to take the Niners straight up.

49ers 27, Eagles 20

Sobleski: The Purdy story will be written about for years and possibly be a feature film one day, depending on how everything ends. It's too poetic not to be, after he was selected as Mr. Irrelevant only to become the focal point of the NFL with a Super Bowl appearance hanging in the balance.

A movie-worthy ending isn't in the cards, though.

The Eagles' defensive approach will make life extremely difficult for the rookie signal-caller in his eighth career start. Eagles coordinator Jonathan Gannon's defensive approach is predicated on creating confusion at the line of scrimmage with varying looks and movement while disguising coverages and dropping more into space.

This allows the Eagles to keep the ball in front of them and rally to the ball-carrier, which will be vital in tackling the talented offensive weapons the Niners feature.

More importantly, the philosophy is meant to force a more methodical offensive approach. Quarterbacks have to be nearly perfect to march the ball down the field without any chunk plays and avoid major mistakes. Purdy is bound to make a few.

Eagles 20, 49ers 17

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Eagles

Ivory: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-3)

Cincinnati Bengals injuries to watch: Quarterback Joe Burrow can breathe a small sigh of relief with Ted Karras going through a full practice. The center suffered a knee injury during the team's divisional-round contest with the Buffalo Bills. On the downside of Bengals' offensive line news, left tackle Jonah Williams (dislocated kneecap) and Alex Cappa (ankle) have yet to practice this week. Both players missed the previous game. Special teamers Joe Bachie (foot) and Tre Flowers (hamstring) practiced with limitations. Defensive tackle DJ Reader and defensive end Sam Hubbard started the week with a rest day.

Kansas City Chiefs injuries to watch: Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in the first quarter of Kansas City's divisional-round matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he went through a full practice Wednesday. He also walked away from a press conference without a limp, which is a great sign in his healing process. Aside from Mahomes, running back Jerick McKinnon (ankle) and linebacker Willie Gay (toe) went through full practices. The Chiefs could see wideout Mecole Hardman (pelvis) return for the first time since Week 9.

In a nutshell: Against the Chiefs, Burrow has thrown for eight touchdowns and just one interception, and Cincinnati hasn't lost to Kansas City with him under center. The Bengals are the lower seed and go on the road to GEHA Field at Arrowhead as slight betting underdogs (+1), but they have a mental edge with their recent success against the Chiefs.

Random tidbit: When the Bengals have advanced to the conference championship, they've gone on to the Super Bowl, going 3-0 in the AFC title game in franchise history. Impressively, with Mahomes in a full-time starting role, Kansas City has been a fixture in the conference championship round, hosting its fifth consecutive AFC title game after going 2-2 over the last four.

The Pick: Chiefs (-1)

Davenport: Were Mahomes fully healthy, this rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game would be that much more compelling—a do-over of the duel between the two best quarterbacks in the NFL.

That's right. I said it. Josh Allen is great. Hurts had a phenomenal 2022 season. But not only has Burrow supplanted that pair, but a second straight playoff win in Kansas City would also create a compelling argument that he's the gold standard at his position. Period. Full stop.

Still, sprained ankle or not, discounting Mahomes in any game is, um, unwise. There's a reason this will be the fifth straight AFC title game at Arrowhead. For the Bengals to win what should be a slugfest, Cincy will have to bring its A-game.

Here's the thing, though—the Bengals just did. In Buffalo. Against a Bills team that beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. Cincinnati dominated just about every facet of that game, including a stellar performance from the Bengals' banged-up offensive line.

Burrow can shred a defense when he has next to no time to throw—he showed that in 2021. Give him time to find the open receiver (and given how deep and talented the Bengals' pass-catching corps is, someone is always open), and he will tear out your still-beating heart and show it to you as he lights a victory stogie.

Smoke 'em if you got 'em. Because Joe Cool and the Bengals are heading back to the Super Bowl.

Who Dey and whatnot.

Bengals 34, Chiefs 30

Gagnon: I just can't do it. I can't pick against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even with Mahomes not 100 percent and the defending AFC champion Bengals riding a 10-game winning streak.

Sure, Cincinnati beat Kansas City on the road in this very game last January, but that's actually part of the reason I'm betting on a Kansas City victory. Lightning is unlikely to strike twice for a Chiefs team that has won six straight home games, and you know they'll do everything in their power to have Mahomes ready to make some more magic.

Chiefs 27, Bengals 24

Knox: Everything points to a Bengals win. Cincy has won the last three meetings, it has the healthier quarterback, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo just seems to know how to counter Andy Reid and Mahomes. The Bengals also aren't concerned with playing on the road, something they proved while rolling the Bills 27-10 last weekend.

On paper, picking the Bengals by a slim margin makes perfect sense. Yet the Chiefs were my preseason pick for the AFC because this is the most balanced team we've seen since Mahomes arrived.

K.C. can make strides against Cincinnati in two areas where Buffalo failed a week ago. It can keep the defense honest by leaning on Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon, and it has a pass rush (55 regular-season sacks) that can take advantage of the Bengals' injured offensive line.

The Bengals are poised to be a perennial contender and have few glaring weaknesses. Here, however, they'll be forced into the sort of physical, back-and-forth battle they had with Baltimore in the wild-card round. With a better quarterback at the helm, I don't see Kansas City fumbling this one.

Chiefs 30, Bengals 27

Ivory: Chiefs

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Bengals

Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Jan. 26, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends courtesy of the Action Network.

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