Porter Moser pulled his hand through his graying beard.
“It was,” OU’s coach said of his team’s 79-52 loss to No. 11 TCU, “a beat down.”
More broadly his words and gestures late Tuesday shined a light on the grueling realities of the Big 12 slate he’s become acquainted with in his two seasons as head coach.
Those realities: As Oklahoma plays some of its worst basketball of the season, its remaining strength of schedule ranks sixth nationally, according to KenPom’s analytics, which measures the efficiency of every team in the nation. Six of the Big 12 teams rank in the AP Top 25, with all vying for a NCAA Tournament berth. And the road ahead isn’t getting any easier this season or in OU’s SEC future, a glimpse of which the Sooners (11-9, 2-6 Big 12) get at 1 p.m. on Saturday in their home matchup against No. 2 Alabama (18-2, 8-0 SEC).
Another looming reality: The Sooners’ NCAA Tournament odds could be more daunting in their future home. The SEC has only No. 2 Tennessee and the No. 3 Crimson Tide ranked in the top-20 of the NET rankings, opposed to six from the Big 12.. The SEC and the Big 12 each put six teams in the tournament last season, with Kansas winning the 2022 NCAA Championship.
ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi told the Daily the SEC’s top teams can compete with anyone, but the overall depth of the Big 12 is unmatched.
“I would say it's just as possible for the SEC to win the national championship,” Lunardi said. “But, you know, top to bottom I think I would take the Big 12 for sure.”
OU missed the NCAA Tournament last season for the first time since 2017, finishing 19-16, 7-11 in the Big 12 and losing out on one of the final berths to teams like Rutgers, Notre Dame, Wyoming and Indiana.
It was a departure from the norm for the Sooners, who have made seven tournament appearances in the past decade, excluding the canceled 2020-21 season due to COVID-19.
Lunardi sees a tilt in the negative direction once OU enters the SEC in 2025.
“I would say the first 10 years net slightly negative for Oklahoma,” Lunardi said. “I think it's 60-40percent (chance of happening), not that I'm trying to be 90-10. But I think they’ll have five bids instead of six or seven."
Then-sophomore forward Jalen Hill drives the ball during the game against No. 9 Alabama on Jan. 30, 2021.
‘I would think that Big 12 is just exhausting’
Where the Big 12 differs from the SEC is the strength at the bottom of the conference.
In NET ratings, the Big 12’s bottom teams have performed better statistically than those in the SEC. For context, the Big 12’s cellar dwellers are West Virginia (No. 24), Oklahoma State (No. 47), Oklahoma (No. 65) and Texas Tech (No. 77) vs. the SEC’s Mississippi State (No. 59), Mississippi (No. 115), LSU (No. 133) and South Carolina (No. 278).
The Sooners stand as the only outlier, ranking below the Bulldogs in NET.
Since 2012, the Big 12 has consistently put more teams in the tournament, as well. The Big 12 has only 10 teams, compared to the SEC’s 14, but still puts more programs in on a consistent basis.
This year, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma are still among the first eight out in Lunardi’s latest projection, with West Virginia in the bubble. Kentucky, among the first four in, and Florida, part of the last eight out, are currently projected as the only teams from the SEC on the bubble of the 68-team tournament.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 26, 2023
“This year's Big 12 is just exhausting,” Lunardi said. “Because you're going to be an underdog in almost every road game. And then there's so much pressure to win at home because it's so hard to win on the road. So those are eight-team deathmatches. Now in some years with the 9-10 team you can exhale, right?
“Not this year.”
Moser knows it well, as four of his teams’ six conference losses have come by a combined nine points. The Sooners are 4-6 in games decided by five points or fewer this season.
Senior guard Grant Sherfield during the game against Arkansas in Tulsa on Dec. 10, 2022.
‘They’re absolutely middle of the league’
While that inability to close out tight games has left Oklahoma just outside the tournament bubble in the Big 12, Lunardi believes they’d be in the same position if it was in the SEC today.
Even if they managed to win a few more of those games that are adding more gray to Moser’s beard.
The Sooners have a 2-1 record against SEC teams this season — beating Mississippi and Florida while losing to Arkansas — but would likely struggle against the top-half competition in the league. Oklahoma has a 0-5 record against teams ranked in the Top 25 and is 2-7 against quadrant one teams. Quadrant 1 wins are described as home games against teams in the top 30 of the NCAA’s NET rankings, neutral-site games against the top 50 and road games against the top 75.
Future SEC peers Mississippi State (No. 59), Missouri (No. 49), Florida (No. 46), Texas A&M (No. 43), Auburn (No. 33), Kentucky (No. 32), Arkansas (No. 26), Alabama (No. 3) and Tennessee (No. 2) are all ahead of the Sooners in the NET rankings, as well.
Based on that, Oklahoma would be near the bottom half of the SEC standings if the conference transition had already unfolded.
“If you compare them to another team in the SEC, like Missouri or Mississippi State, they're absolutely in the middle of the league,” Lunardi said. “They're absolutely in the middle. Like they're not Kentucky this year. They're not Tennessee this year. They're not Auburn this year.”
In the future, if Oklahoma remains a bubble team, Lunardi sees the Sooners having a “negative” chance of making it to the tournament, simply because of the lack of competition in the bottom of the league.
Simply put, the Sooners will need to win more games in the SEC to make the tournament compared to the Big 12, as there are fewer chances to earn marquee wins.
“If you're OU and more like a perennial bubble team, I think the reduced number of quad one opportunities will be a slight detriment,” Lunardi said. “While there may be a couple more games a year that are on paper easier. … Without expansion of the tournament, I have a hard time seeing an 8-10 SEC team making it in the future."
Former OU head coach Lon Kruger during the game against No. 9 Alabama on Jan. 30, 2021.
‘Probably more similarities than differences’
Two years ago, Lon Kruger was in Moser’s shoes, battling the hellscape of the Big 12 with the Sooners. Now retired, he resides in Las Vegas to be closer with his son Kevin, the former OU assistant who now coaches UNLV, and his two grandchildren.
In 10 seasons in Norman, Kruger led OU to seven NCAA Tournaments and a Final Four in 2016. He also succeeded in the SEC, coaching Florida from 1990-1996, reaching the NCAA Tournament twice and the Final Four once.
Despite the gap in years he coached between the two conferences, Kruger said he used the same approach in both.
The difference for him, much like now, was the Big 12 competition was stouter from top to bottom.
“Probably more similarities than differences,” Kruger said. “I think all coaches feel like the toughest league is one you're in regardless of where you're at, because league games are so hard to win. The SEC, obviously, I think has improved every year and will continue to do that. And right now, the Big 12 probably has been recognized as the best conference from top to bottom, and that's because there's no weak teams.”
Kruger not only coached the Sooners to a 195-128 record during his tenure, but he also had a 90-89 Big 12 record, compared to his 51-47 SEC record.
He remembers the Big 12 having no nights off. It was similar in the SEC, but with more competition at the top.
“Yeah, it's really difficult because you have to just play the next game,” Kruger said. “You can have a tough loss, but you're gonna have those and you can’t let it cost you another game or two. So, you just focus on preparation for each game.”
Kruger remembers using that competitiveness to his advantage in recruiting future NBA players like Buddy Hield and Trae Young.
He doesn’t think much will change once OU moves to the SEC, except for the level of competition being lesser among the bottom of the standings, and the venues Oklahoma will travel to.
He’s excited to see how the transition turns out.
“It'll be great,” Kruger said. “When you realize something's gonna happen. You don't dwell too much and worry about things you can't control. So, it'll be fun. It'll be exciting and, obviously, a huge challenge.”
This story was edited by Austin Curtright and Colton Sulley.
