Oscars Best Actress battle rages on after nominations: Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh as close as ever

You couldn’t devise a closer Oscar race than the Best Actress battle between Cate Blanchett (“TAR”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once“). And after the nominations were announced on January 24 things haven’t gotten any clearer. Who do you think will win?

As of this writing the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets are split almost right down the middle: five of them say Blanchett will win, while four say Yeoh. Our Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby are just as closely divided: four say Blanchett, while three say Yeoh.

Our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscar winners are a little more decisive, with a majority of them predicting Yeoh to win. But then you’ve got our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores predicting the last two years’ Oscar winners combined: most of them are backing Blanchett.

And as for the thousands of everyday Gold Derby Users who have placed their bets already, Blanchett has the edge, but only slightly. So who’s right? The Golden Globes were of no help since both women won Best Actress prizes: Yeoh for musical/comedy, Blanchett for drama. The Critics Choice Awards opted for Blanchett over Yeoh, which might have been a sign of things to come, but the Critics Choice Association doesn’t have members in common with the Oscars, so always take them with a grain of salt.

The thing is, both “Everything Everywhere” and “TAR” did exceedingly well in the Oscar nominations. “Everything Everywhere” got 11 bids and has a much better shot of winning Best Picture according to our odds, but “TAR” did better than anticipated with six noms including unexpected citations for its editing and cinematography. With that film built so much around its central performance — Blanchett literally is “TAR” — Best Actress may be where everyone in the academy goes to honor it.

We learn more about where these actors stand when the SAG Awards and BAFTAs winners are announced, but even then this could remain a two-way race right down to the wire.

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