ALLEN PARK -- The Detroit Lions were one of hottest teams in professional football down the stretch. No one wanted to play them, and who knows what would have happened had they not been eliminated from the playoffs on a tiebreaker.
They did it with one of the youngest rosters in the league, too. Now with almost everyone back for 2023, financial flexibility in free agency and a bunch of picks at the top of the draft -- including two in the first round -- expectations are understandably soaring for next season. But there’s a whole lot of work to do if they want to take the next step instead of slipping back into mediocrity.
We’ll start there with the first mailbag of the offseason. As always, thanks so much to everyone who fired off questions. Those can always be tweeted here or emailed to kmeinke@mlive.com.
Without further ado ...
Q: It’s too early for draft questions. BUT. Not what you would do, not what you think the Lions should do, but rather what will the Lions do if there is a QB at No. 6 they think could be a franchise QB? Alternative is someone like Myles Murphy, Breese or Tyree Wilson. When the time is right, would appreciate your thoughts. Also, please apologize to Taylor Decker from me on behalf of Lions fandom. People suck at stepping back from our frustrations, and the fans have had plenty of frustration. Seems personal, wasn’t. -- Robert
A: Taylor Decker became the target for a lot of ire over the last few seasons, and even a bizarre rant on sports radio about how the Lions should trade Decker AND D’Andre Swift AND Frank Ragnow AND Amon-Ra St. Brown AND T.J. Hockenson AND anybody else worth a damn. Never really understood that. The Lions are trying to build a new culture. Why would they trade away not only their best players, but the guys who matter the most to the culture they’re trying to build?
Trade Ragnow? Trade St. Brown? Trade away the pillars of a really good offensive line they’ve spent the better part of a decade trying to build into a strength? And for what? Draft picks to spend on players who probably won’t be as good? Decker heard that stuff about him, too. He also heard people chirping about his toughness for not playing through a finger injury in 2021, when he already quietly played through a lot of other stuff, including appendicitis. He was annoyed. But on a recent episode of the Dungeon of Doom podcast, Decker also said he’s heard the support from fans this past season too. He had a good year as well, allowing just one sack in his final 11 games while not missing a single snap all season. He was named an alternate for the Pro Bowl. With Penei Sewell at the other outside spot and Ragnow anchoring the middle, not to mention Jonah Jackson back at left guard, Detroit has built one of the most impressive offensive fronts in the league. Good thing they didn’t just trade everybody, I guess. Because last season, that front was among the biggest reasons the Lions returned from the dead. It’s also one of the biggest reasons they’ll emerge as favorites for the NFC North crown next season, too.
As for the draft, I think everything is on the table in the first round, including a quarterback at No. 6. That positon is too valuable not to explore all options. More on that in a bit.
But the reality is with three quarterbacks expected to be selected before the Lions on the clock at No. 6, they might find better value addressing their 32nd-ranked defense, which came a long way in the second half of the season, but still has a very long way to go before they’re a bonafide contender. I’m a huge fan of Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson. Yes, the Lions also just spent last year’s No. 2 pick on defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, not to mention their second-round pick on fellow pass rusher Josh Paschal. But this is a passing league, baby, and you can never have too many guys who can get after the quarterback.
More than that, I’m a big proponent of building up roster strengths. You don’t have to be good everywhere to win in this league, you just have to force enough mismatches. The Lions already took that approach with the offensive line, investing first-round picks in guys like Decker, Ragnow, Sewell and Laken Tomlinson in the last eight drafts, not to mention the third-round picks they invested in Jonah Jackson and Graham Glasgow, nor the money they sunk into Halapoulivaati Vaitai and others. Nowadays, that offensive line has become one of the best in the league, and that has helped make their offense one of the best.
Winning football games starts in the trenches. Everyone says it, but the Lions have actually walked that walked. Now you can already see Brad Holmes going for it on the defensive side too, spending early-round picks on Hutchinson, Paschal, Alim McNeill and Levi Onwuzurike in his first two drafts alone, along with giving lucrative contract extensions to Romeo Okwara and Charles Harris. By the end of last season, the pass rush was in much better shape, while the rookie class led the whole league in sacks. Now add another blue-chip edge rusher to pair with Hutchinson and everyone else, and the Lions defense will start causing some matchup problems on that side of the ball too.
Wilson is a high-motor player who has the positional versatility to line up across the front, which would fit the profile that Detroit is seeking, including with Hutchinson.
Q: Experts keep mocking DEs to the Lions. how realistic do you think it is that the team goes that route? -- @stannahmontana1
A: Very. Defensive line (both interior and on the edge) as well as cornerback are where I would go, and where I think they’ll ultimately go too.
Q: Can we get an analysis of Aidan Huthchinson’s rookie year compared to past successful rookie campaigns? Like, is he definitely going to be a Hall of Famer, or have others who have had great rookie years become just mediocre as their career rolls on? -- @jeremylpearson
A: The last 10 rookies to rack up at least 9.5 sacks are as follows: Micah Parsons (13 sacks in 2021), Josh Allen (10.5 in 2019), Maxx Crosby (10 in 2019), Bradley Chubb (12 in 2018), Joey Bosa (10.5 in 2016), Aldon Smith (14 in 2011), Von Miller (11.5 in 2011), Ndamukong Suh (10 in 2010) and Carlos Dunlap (9.5 in 2010).
What I’m trying to say is: It might be a few years before Hutchinson gets fitted for a bust, but the hit rate of guys who do what he just did is pretty telling.
I think he’ll be beaten out by Sauce Gardner for defensive rookie of the year, but just for kicks and giggles, here are the last 10 guys to win that award: Parsons, Chase Young, Nick Bosa, Darius Leonard, Marshon Lattimore, Joey Bosa, Marcus Peters, Aaron Donald, Sheldon Richardson and Luke Kuechly. Like I said, pretty telling.
Q: Obviously, if Jared Goff’s performance persists, the current QB situation couldn’t be better situated to draft and develop. Regression is always possible at any position (why, Amani, why?) and the options at backup have been deplorable at best for what? Ever? First round should be defense only, but is there a second- or third-round QB that would make sense to this team? -- Michael in Marquette
A: When it comes to the quarterback position in Detroit, Jared Goff is QB1 for 2023. And that’s where the certainties end. They could sign another veteran backup, as they’ve done for forever. They could invest a mid- to late-round draft pick to invest in their depth behind Goff, with hopes that prospect will develop over the long term. Brock Purdy isn’t doing so badly these days, you know? And, yes, they could even use a first-round pick to add their eventual successor to Goff.
I realize this is becoming an outlier position, and I get it. Goff was fabulous last season, ranking among the league leaders in everything from yards (sixth) to touchdowns (fifth) and passer rating (seventh). He also didn’t throw a pick on his final 324 passes, the fifth-longest streak in league history. Goff was so good, and with almost everyone back -- including coordinator Ben Johnson -- everything has aligned for even better things in 2023.
But smart teams consider every opportunity to improve, and that’s certainly true at the game’s most important position. Goff has played so well the last year-and-a-half that Detroit has the flexibility not to invest a high-round pick in a successor, and that’s probably what will happen. As Brad Holmes said after the season, it’s a lot easier to get worse at that position than better. But Goff did play a lot of bad football the previous three seasons, and he’ll command another huge contract extension as early as next offseason. If the Lions aren’t prepared to pay $40+ million per year for Jared Goff as soon as next offseason, then they will need to consider all their options now, including a quarterback at No. 6. Even Holmes acknowledged that reality after the season.
“I think it’s a lot of merit, and there’s a lot of proof behind that (approach),” Holmes said. “You can see countless examples of guys that got drafted high (to teams with quarterbacks). Obviously, (Chiefs QB) Patrick Mahomes comes up right off the bat of them trading up and taking him high and sitting him, but you can go back to, man, the guy that we just got done playing in (Packers QB) Aaron Rodgers. So, there’s a lot of proof in the pudding behind taking that approach, and I don’t see anything wrong with it. It’s a premium position. They don’t grow on trees. They’re really hard to find. Just like I said earlier, it’s easy to get worse at that position than get better at that position because there’s so few of them. But I’m not against at all that philosophy of, ‘Draft one, let them sit and develop and just kind of see what you’ve got down the road.’”
Of course, evaluating quarterbacks is a notoriously fickle art that pays off maybe 50% of the time, even at the very top of the draft. It’s a risky proposition no matter when you do it, and with a proven commodity like Goff at the helm and under club control for at least two more seasons, the Lions are in a place where they don’t have to force the issue. As you suggest, they could use a later pick to address the depth at that position meaningfully for the first time in forever. They haven’t selected a quarterback since taking Brad Kaaya in the sixth round of the 2017 draft, and haven’t selected a quarterback on the first two days of the draft since they took Matthew Stafford first overall in 2009. And they have the QB2 situation to show for it.
I haven’t gotten around to scouting the entire class, but one name I like as a potential mid-round fit: Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker. If the Lions take a quarterback, it makes the most sense to add some mobility while they’re at it, which would give that room a dimension it hasn’t ever really had. It would also open up opportunities for the Lions to give their defense more looks against a mobile QB. And Hooker is certainly that, running for 2,079 yards in 45 career games at Virginia Tech and Tennesee. He also threw for 80 touchdowns against just 12 picks and had a career rating of 172.2. He might have played his way into the Round 1 discussion if not for an ACL injury that ended his season early. That could ding his draft stock too. And that could be appealing to Brad Holmes, who has taken multiple high-upside players who fell in the draft because of injury, including trading up for Jameson Williams last year.
Q: The past two offseasons the Lions signed most free agents to 1-year deals. This seemed like a great strategy to me as the team was able to evaluate without much risk whether a player fits the system and - if so - re-sign the player to a longer-term contract. Also, if the money is right, it appears as though players seem much more inclined to re-sign with the Lions today compared to the Patricia era. Do you see the Lions dishing out more 1-year deals this offseason and re-signing their own free agents to multi-year contracts or will they start offering multi-year contracts to free agents from other teams going forward as well? Thanks and regards. -- Andreas R.
A: When general manager Brad Holmes met with reporters after the season, the very first question for him was about this. His reply: “No, it really doesn’t (change). We’re always going to be very strategic and selective with our approach. Regardless of how many resources you have, how much money you can spend, we always are very selective and strategic with how we go about free agency. And that’s upcoming UFAs that are on our team as well as external adds. But it’s always going to be the same approach. And I think we kind of proven that, obviously Year 1 didn’t have as many resources at our disposal, but we were very selective about who were the right guys and being very selective about all right, Alex Anzalone, he’s the right guy. Kalif Raymond, he was the right guy. Charles Harris, he’s the right guy. It’s not that it was just a prove-it one-year deal, but it was the right guy. There were a ton of other options for prove-it one-year deals, but we just were really strategic and selective in getting those right guys. And we’ll continue that same plan.”
Take that for what you will. Sounds to me like they won’t deviate much from their prior approach, focusing their resources on bringing back guys they like on the field and in the locker room, while remaining judicious in how they throw their dollars around on the open market. Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little more activity at the higher levels of free agency either. The Lions are eying a division title next season after all, and even they have admitted as much. That’s a very different expectation from the last two seasons, when the goal was just turning over the roster and establishing a new culture.
I think it’s also worth noting the Lions can now attain a different class of player without having to overspend for it. They’re one of the hottest rebuilds in the league, and word is getting around about how good it is to play for Dan Campbell and this staff. That’s especially true on offense, where Ben Johnson is so highly regarded among players for his creativity, playcalling and skill development. With very good things expected for the team next season, Detroit should be more desired in free agency than it has been in a very, very long time.
Q: Are forgotten men Charles Harris and Romeo Okwara part of the future plans? -- @mdriddlen
A: Great question. Don’t know. They were Detroit’s sack leaders before Aidan Hutchinson came along, and both were paid big money to come back too, especially in Okwara’s case. But Okwara has just three sacks in nine games over the last two years because of an Achilles injury. He told me after the season he believes this offseason will be what he needs to turn a corner after a long rehab, but with a $14.5 million cap hit -- and $7.5 million in potential savings by moving on -- there are some decisions to make on that front. Given how much they like Okwara on and off the field, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Detroit try to work out some kind of pay cut or contract restructure to make the numbers work.
Harris faces a similarly uncertain future. He enjoyed a career season after signing with Detroit in 2021 and was one of the few good things on defense that season, racking up a team-high 7.5 sacks. He was rewarded with a new two-year, $13 million deal last offseason, but was limited to just one sack in six games because of a series of groin injuries, the last of which sent him to season-ending injured reserve. He has a cap hit of $8 million next season, and Detroit would save about $4 million by moving on.
Q: What is the news on the possible new uniforms? I’m only asking because ever else already asked important football questions and I want to know the real news. ;-) -- @NathanPBruce
A: No news yet. But reading some tea leaves here, I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
Q: Do you think Ben Johnson chose to come back because he just really likes the vibes, or was it that the available jobs just weren’t that attractive? -- @HeichoulRL
A: Haven’t talked to the man yet, but his agent certainly spun it that way when leaking the news of Johnson’s return to the league’s media arm.
“Johnson was slated to travel Wednesday to interview with the Panthers,” NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero tweeted. “But he feels Detroit is building something special and wants to see it through. Should be a hot HC name again next year.”
I’m sure that’s part of the story. Johnson wouldn’t be so eager to shut down head-coaching opportunities if he didn’t think he was coming back to something really good, and it’s been a long, long time since the Lions offered that kind of thing. But the quality of the head-coaching vacancies certainly played a role too. At just 36 years old and with only one year as a coordinator, Johnson perhaps also read the room that he wasn’t going to be hired just yet, and decided to pull the plug on his own terms -- and spin it in his favor -- rather than waiting for the process to play out.
Again, this is all conjecture, haven’t talked to the man yet. Bottom line: Johnson’s return speaks to just how good he thinks Detroit will be next season, and the overall health of the organization.
Q: Are the players excited about the new turf? -- @dinordo
A: Yes. Much was made about the quality of the turf at Ford Field, and the Lions are replacing that surface with a state-of-the-art technology used in Seattle, New England and Atlanta, places players love to play. But I think something that’s gone a little understated is the quality of the turf at the practice facility, too. Players have told me that was an even bigger issue, due in part to how much they’re on it compared to Ford Field. That was particularly true for the offensive and defensive linemen, who cited joint pain and other issues from practicing indoors in Allen Park.
Good for the Lions and their ownership for listening to players and making a lucrative investment in their bodies and well-being. It’s not the natural grass players prefer, but given there’s nothing they can do about the roof at Ford Field and the practice facility, it seems like Detroit went all out for the next-best option. Players will certainly feel better, and who knows, maybe that injury rate -- which has been among the league leaders over recent seasons -- will even come down too.
Q: Is there any realistic change or addition that could unlock another level to the offense? If not, it seems like the only way to get into the top tier of NFC teams is with a top 10 defense which seems difficult to do on one more off-season. -- @elviswind
A: There are some needs at tight end and running back, but I think the big change we’ll see with the offense next year is more of the deep ball. We already saw some of that down the stretch last season, once DJ Chark shook off his ankle issues and really got going. And that’s when Jared Goff started playing his best ball, ranking among the two best-rated quarterbacks in the final month of the season. Those were also Chark’s best games.
Chark is eligible to become a free agent when the new league year begins on March 15, and I think it could be difficult to retain him. Of course, that’s partly due to the expected arrival of a fully-operational Jameson Williams. And getting that guy integrated will give this offense a downfield explosiveness we haven’t seen since the days of Calvin Johnson. But there’s just so much refinement Williams needs before he’s ready to be that guy, and this offseason will be critical for him.
I asked Brad Holmes about that after the season. His response: “I don’t think (last season is) really anywhere close to where this kid’s going to go. I mean, he made some big plays and he had some flashes, but the other thing about Jameson, he’s just a football player, man. So, whatever the role is, I know a lot was made about that first game and was he going to be on punt team and all that stuff man. That dude just wants to be out there on the football field, man, that’s just how he’s wired. That’s how he is. But I don’t think anything he did this year is anywhere remotely close to where he’s going to go. We’ll determine what that role is and a lot of it is on him too. He’s going to have to put the work in this offseason, he’s going to have to be dedicated in his approach. And we can provide all the resources and lay it all out, but he’s going to have to take the accountability and do it on his own. But I’ve got a lot of faith and confidence in Jameson and obviously because we traded up for him and made the move for him, we all had the same belief. So, I think he’s going to be just fine.”
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