NHL Thursday bets: Enticing slate invites plenty of plays on the ice

Vladimir Tarasenko over 2.5 SOG (-128 FD)

This is probably my favorite play of the day, for whatever that's worth to you. I'd have no issue betting Tarasenko straight at 4+ shots, but since FanDuel typically holds our afternoon hostage with slow-opening alternate markets, I'm rolling with this as is.

So, why do I like it? Good question. Arizona is allowing the third-most shots per game over the past 10, so that's a nice launch point, but it's far more what Tarasenko is doing when he's been on the ice.

Tarasenko got hurt on December 31 and played just four minutes. His three games prior to that injury, he finished with three, six and five shots on goal on 21 total attempts.

Some may have feared jumping into bed with Tarasenko upon his return on Tuesday, in case we had some rust on our hands. Sure didn't seem like it. The Blues winger finished with five SOG on nine attempts.

He has a wonderful history with the Coyotes, going for 3+ shots in 12 of his last 15 against them, and hitting the four shot threshold in 10 of those games. 

.5u: Erik Gustafsson over 2.5 SOG (-104 FD)

Defensemen against the Penguins has been delivering at a remarkably consistent rate lately. Over the past 10 games, Pittsburgh is allowing 11.1 shots per game to defensemen, good for fourth-most in the NHL.

Every night a defensemen is going over, and since John Carlson was injured, the top shooting d-man on Washington has been Erik Gustafsson.

Gustafsson is averaging 6.2 attempts over his past five games and has eight SOG in his last two games. The volume at home dips slightly, which is why I'm moving this down to a .5u bet. The opponent is impossible to ignore, and the Caps seem good for 32+ shots this evening.

.5u: David Perron over 2.5 SOG (+112 FD)

I think this is the right time to rock with David Perron despite two straight misses and just two hits in his past 10 games. Off the bat, that doesn't sound like someone you'd want to back, but don't worry I get paid by the word so I will gladly explain myself.

Yes, Perron hasn't been consistent, but over the past five games he's averaging 5.0 attempts per game, and when you compare it to a long stretch of seeing three or fewer shot attempts per game, it's a noticeable jump.

Over that stretch, Perron has hit twice, both of which came on the road where he is tonight. Perron has now gone over his shots in four of his past six when the visitor, and his attempts have been far more steady when not in Detroit.

Montreal is allowing 32.8 shots per game at home over the past 10 and the fourth-most overall in the same stretch. Now without Cole Caufield, I expect the Habs to get peppered on a nightly basis.

One of the Canadiens many weaknesses has been their tendency to head to the box, and Perron does still find himself some shots on the power play despite being on PP2.

No team allows more shots to RWs, and that's where Perron presides. He has gone for 3+ shots against Montreal in three of his last four meetings, including a six-SOG game back in November.

.5u: Valeri Nichushkin goal (+140 CZR)

I have to load me up some Colorado props as they host Anaheim tonight. This is about as steep of a disparity between teams as you'll find. The Ducks are allowing 39 shots and 3.9 goals per game on the road over their last 10, and the Avs have been turning it on big time the last few weeks.

A lot of that success has seemed to coincide with getting Nichushkin back in the lineup. While he's been a bit more quiet lately, he's still one of the top forwards on this team in a game they should cruise.

One goal in his last 13 games is just simply not enough for a guy of this caliber. Nichushkin has scored a goal in three of his last four against Anaheim.

.5u: Clayton Keller goal (+165 CZR)

Clayton Keller has been launching the puck on net lately, covering his SOG line in five straight games and four straight at home.

I have no issue with looking Keller's way for shots against St. Louis, but I prefer the goal here. This shot volume has yielded just one game with Keller scoring, albeit a hat trick against Vegas on Sunday.

The Blues have definitely been a loose defensive team this season, and their struggles in net have not relented. They've allowed 10 goals in their past two games and Jordan Binnington is expected in net again tonight.

Keller has three goals in his past four meetings with St. Louis and five in his last eight.