Rutgers is not taking the court on Thursday night, but it is practically guaranteed to take a step forward in one of its season objectives.
The Scarlet Knights (14-6, 6-3) are within reach of two major achievements as the midpoint of the Big Ten schedule approaches, each with varying degrees of likelihood. Standing two games behind No. 1 Purdue for first place in the conference standings through nine games, Rutgers remains within reach of earning a share of the regular season conference championship — the dream of a solo title is on life support — and is on pace for a second consecutive top-four finish and double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Scarlet Knights stand alone in second place in the conference standings as of Thursday morning, with two teams trailing by a half-game and another pair standing a full game behind. As things stand, Bart Torvik’s latest projections give Rutgers a 13.8% chance of earning a shared Big Ten regular season title, a 5.5% chance of a solo regular season title and a 96.9% chance of a top-four finish.
BUY RUTGERS BASKETBALL TICKETS: STUBHUB, VIVID SEATS, TICKETSMARTER, TICKETMASTER
Thursday night’s marquee matchup guarantees that Rutgers will improve its odds in at least one of those ventures. The Boilermakers head to Ann Arbor to face Michigan, one of the two teams that trail Rutgers by a half-game in the Big Ten standings.
- A win for the Wolverines would bring Rutgers within 1.5 games of Purdue, a gap the Scarlet Knights can close if they earn revenge against Iowa on Sunday.
- A win for the Boilermakers would push the Scarlet Knights a full game ahead of Michigan, leaving only Northwestern — who Rutgers own a tiebreaker against after defeating the Wildcats in Evanston — standing a half-game behind. Along with giving the Scarlet Knights some breathing room in second place, the result would also boost Purdue’s profile, which adds to the strength of Rutgers’ upset win in West Lafayette.
While a lot can happen in the final five weeks of the regular season, every positive outcome makes a difference in a league where there is currently as much separation between first and second place — two games — as second and 11th place. So when the final buzzer sounds at the Crisler Center, Rutgers will have a reason to celebrate no matter who comes out on top.
Will Scarlet Knights stay sweep-free?
An under-the-radar stat for Rutgers: it has not gotten swept in the regular season by a conference opponent in two years. The 2021-22 campaign marked the first since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten where they won at least one game against every conference opponent they faced twice; they beat Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan and Penn State once and swept Nebraska.
Rutgers has improved significantly in this category in recent years: it has gotten swept as many times in the past four seasons (five times) as it did in head coach Steve Pikiell’s second season at the helm (2018-19) alone. It has yet to get swept thus far this season, exacting revenge on Ohio State in the rematch in Piscataway.
The last opponent to beat the Scarlet Knights twice in the same campaign was Iowa in 2020-21, and the Hawkeyes are the next obstacle for Rutgers to continue its streak of 11 Big Ten series without getting swept. Iowa shredded the Scarlet Knights in a wire-to-wire win at Jersey Mike’s Arena three weeks prior to Sunday’s rematch at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, a venue where Rutgers has won once in five attempts.
If the Scarlet Knights avenge their loss, they’ll have to do it again in six days when they face Michigan State at Madison Square Garden. Win their next three games — Rutgers faces Big Ten bottom-feeder Minnesota in the first of their two matchups this season in between rematches with Iowa and the Spartans — and the Scarlet Knights will guarantee a second consecutive campaign without getting swept in the regular season.
Loose ends
- Cam Spencer was named a midseason third-team all-transfer by The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie on Wednesday.
“Spencer has fit in like a glove in Piscataway, embodying what Steve Pikiell looks for from a culture perspective while also bringing some desperately needed shooting to a team that lost its only reliable shotmaker in Ron Harper Jr. last offseason to the NBA. Spencer has hit 44 percent from 3 and 94 percent from the line, the latter of which is a top-five mark in the country. But more importantly, he’s hit critical shots when they matter most. Spencer (who up-transferred from Loyola Maryland) has hit two late game-winners for Rutgers against Purdue and Northwestern, plus had 13 big second-half points in a comeback win against Ohio State. Don’t sleep on how well he has held up on defense for a top-five team in the country on that end, either.”
Through 20 games, Spencer is scoring 13.1 points per game on 49.3% shooting, including a 43.6% clip on three-pointers, to go with 3.6 assists and 2.5 steals per game. He hit two clutch three-pointers in road wins over Purdue and Northwestern earlier in the season.
Want to bet on College Basketball?
See the best NJ Sports Betting sites
Spencer was on pace to destroy the single-season program record in three-point percentage through 17 games (40-of-83, 48.2%), but the Loyola-Maryland transfer’s white-hot shooting has since regressed. He is in the midst of a slump, shooting 4-of-18 (22.2%) on three-pointers across the last three games.
Still, Spencer is on pace to have the best three-point shooting season for any Scarlet Knight since Myles Mack shot 46.2% on 4.3 attempts per game during the 2012-2013 season.
Defensive dominance
We’ll dive deeper into what could be a fascinating Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year race later in the season. But at this point in the campaign, there is a sound argument to be made that multiple Scarlet Knights rank among the top 10 defenders in the league.
The top four players in adjusted defensive rating (how many points a player personally allows per 100 possessions) during league play are all Scarlet Knights (Cliff Omoruyi, Caleb McConnell, Cam Spencer, Mawot Mag), as well as four of the top six spots in D-PRPG! (how many points a player prevents compared to an average replacement player), per Bart Torvik.
This chart gives a good visual presentation of the Scarlet Knights’ defensive dominance.
As always, it is worth noting that individual defensive advanced stats should be taken with a grain of salt. But together with the eye test, the data looks pretty accurate.
Thank you for relying on us to provide the journalism you can trust.
Brian Fonseca may be reached at bfonseca@njadvancemedia.com.
Ad Choices