Dodgers Writer Feels Miguel Vargas's Ceiling is Very High

Miguel Vargas is the latest in a long line of intriguing Dodgers prospects. While he never quite hit the heights on overall Top 100 lists that Corey Seager and Gavin Lux did, his offensive projection has pretty much everyone excited to see what he can do with regular playing time in the big leagues.

The question of where (and how well) he'll play defensively remains open, of course, but while his offensive showing in his brief time in the majors in 2022 wasn't impressive, it's nearly unanimous that he will hit in the big leagues.

Over at The Athletic, LA beat writer Fabian Ardaya did a couple mailbag columns, and he was asked about Vargas's ceiling.

What is the ceiling on Miguel Vargas? Superstar? Perennial All-Star? Above-average contributor? I’m excited to see him get an extended run and think very highly of his potential but am curious about how far I should place expectations. — Tae K.

It ultimately comes down to how Vargas’ bat evolves. If he’s a solid, quality hitter he’s going to bring a lot of value and be a big leaguer for a long time. If those line drives in the gaps turn into homers, he can have some All-Star-like seasons. If he walks at the same rate he strikes out, as he did at Triple A last year, and hits for power, he can be a fringe superstar so long as he’s not a defensive liability. I feel confident in saying he likely winds up a productive big leaguer.

Vargas is just 23 years old, and his power has started to come along the last couple years. He had 52 extra-base hits in 542 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, and last year he had 53 XBH in 520 Triple-A PA (at 4.6 years younger than the average age for the level). As Ardaya says, one of the big questions is whether the power will continue to develop, turning some singles into doubles and doubles into homers.

But even if Vargas remains more of a doubles hitter than a true masher, a guy with his hit tool can be very, very successful in that profile. Even with more doubles than homers last year, Vargas's slugging percentage in Triple-A was exactly the same as Freddie Freeman's in the big leagues. Don't get me wrong, it's much more impressive to do it in the big leagues, that's just to illustrate that you can be a very successful hitter even without mind-boggling home run numbers.

It's an exciting time to be on board the Miguel Vargas train!