The 2023 Oscar nominees for Best Supporting Actor are almost a foregone conclusion with front-runner Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) leading our racetrack odds, followed by Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Paul Dano (“The Fabelmans”) and Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”). The fifth spot, however, is still up for grabs and prime for a surprise.
Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”) is currently predicted to make the cut, likely due to his recent bids at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and BAFTAs. Despite those mentions, I would argue the final slot will go to “Babylon” star Brad Pitt for his portrayal Jack Conrad, a silent film actor struggling to adjust to the sound era. Below are my top five reasons you will hear Pitt’s name when nominations are announced on Tuesday, January 24.
SEE 2023 Oscars: Best Supporting Actor Predictions
1. Brad Pitt is still one of Hollywood’s biggest stars
With Pitt’s breakout performance as J.D. in “Thelma & Louise,” he was launched into superstardom and became one of Hollywood’s biggest heartthrobs. The actor’s worldwide recognition is something that he holds over the other potential nominees. The academy is always fighting to stay relevant to the broader audience, so even if people won’t see all of this year’s nominated motion pictures, at least there will be one familiar Hollywood name to root for on Oscar night. He’s already in their good graces as a seven-time nominee — four for acting and three as a producer. He won Best Supporting Actor for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (2020) and Best Picture as a producer of “12 Years a Slave” (2014).
2. Babylon’s actors have received notable recognition throughout awards season
Despite “Babylon’s” less-than-stellar box office numbers and polarizing reviews from critics, the movie’s actors have not been neglected by the industry. Lead actor Diego Calva got his career-first Golden Globe nomination, Margo Robbie received nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards for her invigorating performance as Nellie LaRoy, Pitt was noticed by the Golden Globes as well, and the whole “Babylon” cast received the SAG Awards nomination for Best Ensemble. Clearly there is some love for the film’s performances, and Pitt is fighting for a spot in arguably the most vulnerable category.
SEE 4 surprising SAG nominations: Ana de Armas, ‘Babylon’ cast …
3. The academy loves behind-the-scenes Hollywood stories
Consider the past two years and you’ll see films like David Fincher’s “Mank” and Aaron Sorkin’s “Being the Ricardos” performing quite well at the Academy Awards, despite receiving mixed reviews. Besides the Best Picture nomination, “Mank” received two acting bids for Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried in 2021. Last year’s “Being the Ricardos” wasn’t up for Best Picture, but did snatch three nominations for its actors: Nicole Kidman, Javier Bardem and JK Simmons. Simmons’ name appearing on the list for Best Supporting Actor was well-deserved, but by no means a sure bet leading into Oscar nominations morning. Pitt could easily pull a similar kind of surprise twist this year.
4. Damien Chazelle’s actors have a good track record at the Oscars
Back in 2015, director Damien Chazelle’s debut feature film “Whiplash” received a warm welcome from the academy. Overall, the movie got six nominations, one of them for Simmons’ winning Best Supporting Actor performance. Two years later Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling received a pair of leading performance bids for their roles in “La La Land,” with Stone going on to receive the golden statuette from the hands of Leonardo DiCaprio.
It’s safe to say that Chazelle knows how to direct his actors and he has a good track record of letting their talent shine bright enough to attract the academy’s attention. While Robbie is captivating in “Babylon,” she’s less likely to receive a nomination due to the tight lineup in the Best Actress category this year, but Pitt is still in the mix.
5. Pitt is an absolute scene-stealer
In “Babylon” Pitt portrays Jack Conrad, a silent era movie star that must come to grips with the descent of his career during the transition to sound film. His performance is full of passion, nuance and old Hollywood nostalgia. Jack obsesses over fame and recognition, only to realize that not everyone is meant to finish that race on their own terms. Just like his Oscar-winning performance in Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Pitt steals each scene he’s in, propels the story forward, and makes it holistic. That kind of commitment to his characters is what has brought him four Academy Award nominations for his acting so far, and it is exactly what can get him his fifth.
PREDICT the 2023 Oscar nominees through January 24
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