Three Running Backs That Will Go Over Their Player Prop Total in Week 14

Using the player prop tool in Week 14 allows bettors to easily identify exploitable odds on sportsbooks for NFL players' yardage total markets. Each week the SI Fantasy team publishes stat projections for every player, from every team. We then use our player prop tool to find the most significant disparities in our player predictions with the lines from the sportsbook. As highlighted below, there are three running backs with more than a 35 yard difference in what we forecast in Week 14 compared to the line the sportsbooks offer.

Top 3 Running Backs to bet the OVER on Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (Over 52.5 rushing yards)

Last week, the DFS market didn’t add in the loss of Elijah Mitchell to McCaffrey’s projected opportunity and salary. He finished with his best fantasy game (17 carries for 66 yards and 8 receptions, 80 yards and one touchdown) since Week 8 (40.60 fantasy points). The 49ers had him on the field for a season-high 82% of their plays against the Dolphins. McCaffrey gained fewer than 40 yards rushing in four of his six games with San Francisco. He continues to be limited in practice with a knee issue while expecting to play on Sunday. 

Tampa Bay played well vs. the run in three of their last four games, (24/68, 14/39, and 25/66)  but offenses have run the ball well against them in five contests (KC – 37/189/2, ATL – 31/151/1, CAR – 27/173/1, BAL – 33/231/1, and CLE – 34/189/2). The 49ers should give McCaffrey a minimum of 15 rushes this week, meaning he’ll need to gain 3.5 yards per play to be a winning investment. 

 Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles (Over 63.5 rushing yards)

Over the past four games, Sanders fell short of expectations running the ball in three matchups (12 carries, 54 yards, 13 carries, 47 yards and 10 carries, 24 yards, one touchdown). The Eagles had him on the field for 59.5% of their plays this season, slightly above his playing time over the last two weeks (54% and 53%). Philadelphia averages 33.5 rushes per game, with Sanders receiving 46.5% of their rushing opportunity. 

The Giants struggled to defend the run over their previous three matchups (37/160/4, 39/169/2, and 36/165), with weakness as well all season (329/1,690/11 – 5.1 yards per rush). The Eagles project to run the ball 36 times this week, giving Sanders about 17 chances to beat his betting line (63.5 yards on SI Sportsbook) in this game.

Jeff Wilson, Miami Dolphins (Over 40.5 rushing yards)

After playing well in Week 10 against the Browns (17/119/1 with two catches for 24 yards), Wilson finished with a disappointing game vs. the Texans (13/39/1 with one catch for 13 yards) in what looked like a primo matchup. Last week, Miami only gave him one rush (three yards) vs. the stout 49ers’ run defense. The Dolphins had Wilson on the field for 37% of their plays, compared to 61% over his last two games. 

The Chargers allowed more than 150 yards rushing in each of their previous six contests (34/214/2, 35/201/2, 41/157/2, 27/163, 34/181/1, and 29/154/2). Based on his play in 2022 and his matchup, he should only need 10 or so carries to reach the over in rushing yards.

Get in on the action for Week 14 on SI Sportsbook.  

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