Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
As the outfield market becomes increasingly sparse, bringing Brandon Nimmo back into the fold is a move the Mets have to make.
With Cody Bellinger and Mitch Haniger signing with the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants respectively on Tuesday, New York saw a pair of potential fits come off the board as they remain in somewhat of a holding pattern as it pertains to Nimmo’s market. There is mutual interest between the two parties, as evidenced by comments made by Nimmo’s agent Scott Boras and Mets GM Billy Eppler. The main issue seems to be the number of suitors that Nimmo has, with teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, and more, being reportedly involved to some degree. Additionally, the team has come across as being weary of handing out long-term deals in favor of short-term, high AAV deals like those given out to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. It would appear that the Mets have a line they won’t cross in contract talks in order to maintain financial flexibility in the future, but that feels like a tough stance to have in this particular situation.
Nimmo is one of the organization’s brightest home-grown stars of the past decade, amassing 17.9 fWAR in just over 600 games for the Mets while slashing .269/.385/.441. While that in and of itself won’t sway Eppler and the rest of the brain trust to pay whatever it takes to bring him back, it does speak to just how valuable Nimmo has been for a prolonged period of time atop the lineup.
Nimmo had what was arguably the best all-around season of his career in 2022, as he recorded 5.4 fWAR while slashing .274/.367/.433 with 134 wRC+ and 6 Outs Above Average. His defense, once a major flaw in his game, has also become one of his greatest strengths. Nimmo’s defensive improvement has helped elevate his status as one of the game’s best center fielders, making his profile and skillset significantly more balanced.
Nimmo’s elite ability to get on base can’t be ignored either, as his .385 on-base percentage is eighth among qualified hitters since 2016. His power resurgence is something to watch too, as his 16 home runs in 2022 was the second-highest total of his career, signaling that perhaps there’s another level he can reach moving forward.
Another reason why letting Nimmo go elsewhere would be consequential for the Mets is the fact that there simply aren’t many viable replacements on the open market. Kevin Kiermaier and Andrew Benintendi are two names that have been linked to the team in recent days, but both come with considerable concerns for different reasons. Kiermaier, while still providing outstanding defense and baserunning, has dealt with a number of serious injuries that have limited his availability throughout his career. Kiermaier also doesn’t provide much offensively, as shown by his 97 wRC+. As for Benintendi, he was an All-Star in 2022 and put up a 122 wRC+ to go with 2.8 fWAR while slashing .304/.373/.399. However, his power stroke completely disappeared with just five homers, and he has been a well-below average defender across his career. He also hasn’t appeared in center field since 2019, so he wouldn’t make much sense as a direct replacement for Nimmo.
Furthermore, the idea of Starling Marte playing center field full time for the Mets just doesn’t seem realistic or beneficial in any fashion. Sure, Marte has been worth 13 OAA at the position during his career, but he hasn’t recorded more than 2 OAA at the position in a single season since 2018. He’s also 34 and saw his defense decline drastically in 2022 with -2 OAA as a right fielder, and his speed is on the downswing as well. It’s understandable why Eppler and company would contemplate making this move. Marte reverting back to center would open up a corner outfield spot and give the Mets more of an opportunity to improve the club offensively through the likes of someone like Benintendi, Michael Conforto or Masataka Yoshida. However, it just isn’t worth the risk and defensive downgrade.
Re-signing Brandon Nimmo has to be of upmost importance to the Mets as the offseason continues to move ahead. Now that Aaron Judge is off the board, Nimmo’s market could quickly explode, and there is no reason why the Mets shouldn’t be the highest bidder once everything is said and done.
