The Islanders’ advanced numbers paint them as a team that, if not for its goaltending and luck, would be in the bottom third of the league.
Now, the Islanders’ five-on-five play is not quite so bad as to suggest anything so drastic. Public analytics models are flawed, and the Islanders are a better team than they were last season, despite a slightly worse five-on-five expected goals rate. Their defensemen are emboldened to get involved in the play. Mathew Barzal looks like himself. They are playing much better, more confident offensive hockey and showing an ability to take the game to their opponents that did not exist a season ago.
But it’s unambiguously true that Ilya Sorokin is covering up a lot of issues within this team. You only need to look to Tuesday’s loss to St. Louis, on a night where Sorokin was not quite himself, to see that.
The Islanders on Tuesday outshot St. Louis, 40-28, with a 35-24 margin at five-on-five. They had the better of high-danger chances, 21-15, and expected goals, 3.74-2.71, at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick. And they lost, 7-4, with the last two Blues goals being empty-netters.
