‘Weather Nut’ calls this section of Mass. ‘the Triangle of Disappointment’ for snow lovers

Passengers boarding the PVTA bus on Main Street in Springfield during the snow storm on Feb, 9, 2021. (Hoang 'Leon' Nguyen / The Republican)
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Dave Hayes counts himself a snow lover. He’s not a meteorologist by trade or training, but over decades of fascination with the weather, he’s learned a thing or two.

One of those lessons — based on his meteorological chops and more than 30 years residing in the Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts — is this: compared to its neighbors to the east and west, the region just might be the most disappointing place around for those who love to watch a heavy New England snowfall.

Hayes, a Hampshire County resident, is Western Massachusetts’ unofficial weatherman. And there’s a territory he has sketched out that for a number of reasons tends to receive diminished snow compared to the Worcester Hills or the Berkshires, he says. From Greenfield, on the northern end of the valley, the region extends south down the Interstate 91 corridor to Westfield and spreads east toward Wilbraham, before connecting back north to Greenfield — forming a triangle.

It’s not a supposedly dangerous triangle, like the one southwest of Bermuda. Quite the opposite. Hayes calls it the “Western Mass. Snow Lovers’ Triangle of Disappointment.”

If you encounter Hayes on Twitter, Facebook or his website, it is likely under the brand of “Dave Hayes the Weather Nut.” His dispatches on the weather of Massachusetts’ western half come daily, explaining to locals precisely when snow may start to fall in the Springfield area, or how strong the overnight winds could get in the Berkshires.

But when a winter storm takes aim at Massachusetts, Hayes often calls attention to the Triangle of Disappointment, which shows up with stark clarity on snowfall maps.

Northampton weather enthusiast Dave Hayes. Online, he goes by "The Weather Nut."

After one mid-March snowstorm in 2018, the Pioneer Valley had far less snow to show for than Eastern Mass., the Worcester region or the Berkshires. That March 13 storm delivered two feet of snow to Newton, nearly that much to Worcester, more than a foot to Leicester and as much as 18 inches to some of the Hilltowns, according to the National Weather Service. But there sat Amherst, Springfield and Westfield, with a measly 3-to-4 inches of snow to report.

“There it is - the WMass Snow Lover’s Triangle of Disappointment,” the Weather Nut tweeted. “It’s real, folks. VERY REAL.”

The Triangle of Disappointment is only disappointing, of course, for those who enjoy a New England snowstorm.

Hayes fell in love with the weather as a boy, watching the forecasts from Bob Copeland and other legendary Boston meteorologists, and then looking outside to see the bright colors of a storm on the radar play out in reality overhead.

“I would sit in front of the TV at 6:13 p.m., knowing the weather would be coming on at 6:15,” he said.

Hayes gravitated toward the broadcasters who would explain why weather events occurred, and not just what was happening. He started watching the Weather Channel in the 1990s, still in the network’s early years. When the internet came online, it opened up a new wealth of knowledge. In 2011, Hayes started posting his forecasts online. The idea caught on and grew steadily at first — and then much faster. From a few thousand social media followers around 2013, Hayes now has more than 51,000 today.

Monte Belmonte, 93.9 FM - The River morning host, talks with WWLP meteorologist Brian Lapis, center, and western Massachusetts "Weather Nut" Dave Hayes (left), then of Deerfield, during the fifth-annual 26-mile 'Monte's March' from Northampton to Greenfield, Nov. 6, 2014. The event is a fundraiser for The Food Bank of Western Massachusetts. (Greg Saulmon/The Republican).

“People were telling me it was helping them and they were enjoying it and they were getting benefit from it,” he said. “I wanted to be helpful to people, and when I heard I was helping people around one of my passions it was a no-brainer.”

Hayes is not a meteorologist, he notes — but he is an enthusiast who has followed and learned about the weather his entire life. He’s a weather nut.

There are a few reasons, Hayes says, that the Triangle of Disappointment exists.

As storms move west to east in their typical fashion, they encounter the Berkshires. When air hits a mountain range, it has nowhere to go up but up, where it cools and condenses and sometimes precipitates. On the other side of the Berkshires, the air descends into the valley, and tends to dry and evaporate.

There is also the general elevation of the hills to the east and west of the Pioneer Valley. As snowstorms pass over the Berkshires, there is a better opportunity for snow in the colder, higher-altitude regions. If the temperature is around freezing in the valley, it may not be ripe for snow. But at five or 10 degrees cooler in the hills, the conditions may be better.

Another lesser cause of the Triangle is its remoteness from the coast and the area most affected by heavy coastal nor’easters, Hayes said. There are other reasons, but they get progressively more technical.

So whereas the Berkshires town of Lenox has averaged nearly 5 feet of snow over the last five winters, Amherst has averaged about 2 1/2 feet, according to National Weather Service records.

The Triangle of Disappointment is just a catchy way of summing up the experience of being a snow lover in the unique landscape of the Pioneer Valley. The term, Hayes said, “was just a little thing that popped out of my punchy brain at five in the morning one morning.”

Not everyone is a fan of a heavy winter storm, whether it’s the kind that dropped more than 30 inches of powder on some Massachusetts towns last winter, or a lesser system that leaves just enough accumulation to force schools to cancel.

“Some people love living in the Triangle of Disappointment,” Hayes said. “There are lots of people who don’t like winter and lots of people who don’t like snow for various reasons. And they have no problem when the forecast busts to the downside.”

Hayes is not one of them.

“I love snow and I live in the valley,” he said. “For a snow lover, I’m living in the wrong place.”

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