NFL odds: How Jimmy Garoppolo's injury impacts 49ers' Super Bowl, NFC odds

By Patrick Everson
Updated Dec 5, 2022 6:20 pm EST

Super Bowl odds can be a cruel, cruel thing, particularly for anyone who had the foresight a couple of months ago to make a wager on the San Francisco 49ers. At the time, the 49ers' were at their longest title odds of 25-1.

In Week 13, against a surging Miami Dolphins outfit, the Niners nabbed a 33-17 victory that perhaps continued their ascent in odds to win the Super Bowl. Except for one thing: Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a broken foot in the first half.

Garoppolo's season is officially over, and it's the second QB that San Francisco has lost this season after watching Trey Lance go down with a broken fibula in Week 2.

Let's take a look at how the Jimmy G injury impacts the Niners' title odds.

49ers are Decliners

A week ago, the 49ers were all the way up to fourth in PointsBet USA's Super Bowl futures market. San Francisco was on a four-game win streak, and even though the Niners were just 7-4 – trailing several other teams – tickets and money were starting to pile up.

To a degree, the 49ers were becoming what the Buffalo Bills have been for much of 2022, a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl.

"The Niners came into Week 13 at +650 to win the Super Bowl and +260 to win the NFC," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. "Even though they beat the Dolphins, the Jimmy G injury forced us to push their odds out. They're currently at +1100 to win the Super Bowl and +475 to win the NFC."

San Francisco's NFC title odds also took a hit at FOX Bet, lengthening from +250 to +450 to win the conference.

"The 49ers are left with a major hole on a team with Super Bowl potential," FOX Bet sports trader AndiRose Buccola said. "Is Brock Purdy the guy to lead this overwhelmingly strong roster moving forward? Or will Nate Sudfeld replace him if things go downhill? Or maybe the Niners take a look at the recently cut Baker Mayfield?

"For those reasons, the 49ers took a small drop in odds for the NFC Championship."

Liability Dodged?

Prior to Garoppolo's injury, only the Kansas City Chiefs (+400), Bills (+475) and Philadelphia Eagles (+600) led the 49ers on the Super Bowl odds board. And to reiterate, San Fran has been the flavor of the month, no question.

Consider that back in late September, after a 1-2 start that included an ugly 11-10 loss at Denver, San Francisco was +2500 (25-1) to win the Super Bowl. Anybody who got on then, or even prior to the Oct. 20 deal to acquire Christian McCaffrey, surely got a nice price. Nothing quite like a $100 bet with the potential to pay out $2,500.

Plenty of people were buyers, and bettors kept jumping on throughout November.

"Behind the Bills, the 49ers are our top liability to win the Super Bowl, and they're our biggest liability to win the NFC," Korn said.

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Nick explains 49ers backup quarterback Brock Purdy will be able to maintain the offense because it was designed with quarterback at low priority.

Still in the Hunt – For Now

To be fair, even at +1100, San Francisco is still fifth at the moment in PointsBet's Super Bowl market after the shuffling that came from Week 13 results. 

Buffalo has returned to the favorite at PointsBet at +375, Kansas City is +450, followed by the Eagles at +475 and the Dallas Cowboys at +650.

But it's unlikely that the 49ers, even with their great defense and stud skill players, can get to the promised land behind rookie seventh-round draft pick Brock Purdy. San Fran signed journeyman Josh Johnson off Denver's practice squad, though it's hard to believe he's the answer.

The remaining schedule isn't a murderer's row, but neither will it be easy for a team down its top two QBs: Dec. 11 vs. Tampa Bay; Dec. 15 at Seattle; Dec. 24 vs. Washington; Jan. 1 at Las Vegas; and Jan. 8 vs. Arizona.

If the Niners – currently 3.5-point favorites against the Bucs this week – lose at home, and particularly if they look bad doing so, those Super Bowl odds could begin a more precipitous drop.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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