Last offseason, the Rockies pulled off an unexpected blockbuster, signing free-agent outfielder Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million contract.
Don’t expect a sequel, even though the Rockies went 68-94 in 2022 for their fourth straight losing season.
As the winter meetings begin Sunday in San Diego, general manager Bill Schmidt made it clear that he’s looking at the Rockies’ young position players as the building blocks for the future, starting with 21-year-old shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, who played in nine games last season after making his debut Sept. 23.
But Schmidt also acknowledged that the club needs to add quality pitching and needs to fill a hole in center field. He’ll explore those possibilities at the winter meetings.
Still, the Rockies are telling agents that they are unlikely to sign high-priced free agents to long-term deals because that would block the path of their best young prospects.
“When our young players are ready, we’ll move them up,” Schmidt said. “We do have some young players who have the chance to be impact big-leaguers. And we’re going to give Tovar every opportunity to do the job. If he’s not ready, we’ll deal with that, but we believe in our young players.”
Colorado’s prospect list includes outfielders Zac Veen and Brenton Doyle. Veen is likely to begin the season at Double-A Hartford and Doyle at Triple-A Albuquerque. It’s not out of the question that one of them could debut in the first half of the season.
The Rockies are also eager to see if first baseman/right fielder Michael Toglia and corner infielder Elehuris Montero can make leaps forward after hit-and-miss debuts last season. Outfielder Benny Montgomery, though pegged for 2024, is also potentially on the radar for ’23.
Trading a young position player to acquire quality pitching is not off the table, but it’s not an essential part of Colorado’s blueprint.
“I think we have to add pitching, any way we can, and improve our depth,” Schmidt said. “I wouldn’t rule out moving one of our young position players, but it would have to be the right fit for both sides.”
Here is the state of the Rockies as the hot stove season begins in earnest:
Bryant’s health: Bryant’s contract was the biggest free-agent deal in Rockies history, but an early season back injury, followed by lingering plantar fasciitis, limited him to just 42 games. The Rockies are confident Bryant will report to spring training ready to play a full season.
“Our trainers and strength guys have checked in with him and from everything I’m being told he looks good,” Schmidt said. “We are optimistic about him showing up (healthy) at spring training.”
Potential trade candidates: First baseman C.J. Cron, Colorado’s lone All-Star, is owed just $7.25 million in 2023 and his power could make him a trade target, but a second-half slump took some luster off his value.
The Rockies have plenty of other options at first, including left-handed hitting corner infielder Nolan Jones, acquired from Cleveland in a November trade.
Acquiring a solid starting pitcher would likely require trading a player such as Gold Glove second baseman Brendan Rodgers or third baseman Ryan McMahon. The Rockies are usually reluctant to make those kinds of deals, but in January 2016 former GM Jeff Bridich traded slugging outfielder Corey Dickerson to Tampa Bay in exchange for prospect German Marquez and veteran lefty reliever Jake McGee.
Filling centerfield: Wyoming native Brando Nimmo, a left-handed hitter, is the most coveted free agent center fielder on the market and the Rockies have expressed interest. But so have a lot of other teams and Nimmo is likely to get a five-year deal worth at least $110 million. That might be out of the Rockies’ ballpark.
“You just have to be patient,” Schmidt said when asked about finding a center fielder. “You never know what’s going to pop up. I know what we need but we might not be able to fill the hole right away.”
One option is bringing in a left-handed hitter to pair with right-handed-hitting Yonathan Daza. That could open an early door for Montgomery.
Searching for starters: Colorado’s rotation ranked 29th in the majors in both ERA (5.29) and strikeout rate (17.3%). Marquez, the No. 1 starter, had a terrible season, posting a 5.12 ERA and a strikeout rate (18.8%) and swinging-strike rate (10.1%) that fell far below the league average.
Even if Marquez can turn things around, Colorado desperately needs depth, even after it re-signed right-hander Jose Urena to a one-year, $3.5 million deal.
Bullpen solutions: Colorado needs help, no question about it. The bullpen’s 4.82 ERA was the highest in the majors and the 13th-highest in franchise history. Plus, Rockies relievers struck out just 532 batters, the third-fewest in the big leagues.
Right-hander Daniel Bard (34 saves, 1.79 ERA) is set as the closer, but the Rockies need late-inning help to create a bridge to Bard.
Right-hander Carlos Estevez emerged as a solid set-up man (1.40 ERA in the second half of ’22), but he’s a free agent and is being courted by a number of teams, some of which could give him a shot as a closer and offer more money than Colorado.
“We’ve expressed to Carlos our interest in him returning, but needless to say, his agent is going to do what’s right for them,” Schmidt said. “As things get closer we’ll talk with Carlos.”
Colorado is so confident that right-hander Tyler Kinley can rebound from an elbow injury, it gave him a three-year, $6.25 million contract. Kinley was dominant when healthy, posting a 0.75 ERA and striking out 27 in 24 innings.
But his season ended in early June because of a torn flexor tendon in his pitching elbow that required surgery in July.
“We are very optimistic, from all of the reports that we got, that Tyler will bounce back,” Schmidt said. “You roll the dice, somewhat, that he is going to get back to full health. But I think Tyler is making big strides and we’re hopeful he’ll continue to improve. We optimistic we’ll will see him the last couple of the months of the season and we hope it carries over to 2024.”
The Rockies also scooped up veteran left-hander Brent Suter off waivers from Milwaukee and then signed him to a one-year, $3 million contract to avoid arbitration.
Payroll projection: Last season, the Rockies’ opening-day payroll for their 26-man roster was $131.3 million (20th in the majors), according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That was about $14 million less than the record payroll of $145.2 million in 2019. With the pandemic in the rearview mirror, the Rockies ranked ninth in attendance last season, drawing an average of 32,467 fans per game at Coors Field.
It would seem to be an ideal time to start spending, but whether Rockies owner Dick Monfort will do that remains to be seen.
“I’m not going to comment on where our payroll is going to be, Schmidt said. “I think Dick is at a point to where if there is something there, I’m going to bring it to him. If it makes sense, we’ll talk about it.”
Guaranteed Contracts
* Kris Bryant, LF: $164 million through 2028* Ryan McMahon, 3B: $65 million (2027)* Kyle Freeland, LHP: $57.5 million (2026, plus a 2027 vesting option)* Antonio Senzatela, RHP: $43.25 million (2026, 2027 club option)* Daniel Bard, RHP/closer: $19 million (2024)* Germán Márquez, RHP: $17.5 million (2023, 2024 club option).* Charlie Blackmon, RF/DH: $15 million (2023)* Elias Díaz, C: $11.5 million (2024)* C.J. Cron, 1B: $7.5 million (2023)* Tyler Kinley, RHP: $6.5 million (2025, 2026 club option)* Randal Grichuk, OF: $5 million (2023, does not include $4.33 million to be paid by Toronto)* Dinelson Lamet, RHP: $5 million (2023)* Jose Urena, RPH: $3.5 million (2023, 2024 club option)* Brent Sutter, LHP: $3 million (2023)
Arbitration-eligible players
* Brendan Rodgers, 2B* Austin Gomber, LHP* Peter Lambert, RHP
Free agents
* Alex Colomé, RHP* Carlos Estévez, RHP* José Iglesias, SS* Chad Kuhl, RHP