Oregon State remains a prime contender for Holiday and Las Vegas bowls, decision in fewer than 24 hours

What we know as of Saturday afternoon about Oregon State and its bowl destination:

Utah’s 47-24 win over USC in Friday’s Pac-12 championship game muddies the picture a bit. All we know for certain is Utah is headed to the Rose Bowl.

USC is likely bound for the Cotton Bowl as a New Year’s Six at-large participant. But the Trojans still have a long shot chance at a CFP berth (addressed below under wild cards).

Provided it’s Utah in the Rose and USC to Cotton, Oregon State’s two most likely bowl destinations are the Holiday (San Diego, Dec. 28) and Las Vegas (Dec. 17).

Washington is heavily favored to play in the Alamo Bowl. It’s a no-brainer, as Washington’s 10-2 record trumps Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA’s 9-3 mark, and the Huskies have wins over the Ducks and Beavers. Plus a matchup of Washington vs. Steve Sarkisian-coached Texas is too tempting to pass up.

According to a source, the Holiday Bowl hasn’t decided between Oregon and Oregon State as of Saturday morning. UCLA is likely out because the Bruins were slated to play in last year’s Holiday, but pulled out due to COVID concerns. Oregon State’s pitch: it has never played in the Holiday Bowl; a fan base itching to make a postseason trip after only one opportunity since 2013; a hot team that won six of its final seven games, capped by beating rival Oregon.

Another source said the Beavers are “the frontrunner” for Las Vegas Bowl if the Holiday shuns OSU. The Beavers are attractive for similar reasons to the Holiday. The last time OSU played in Las Vegas was the 2009 bowl, when it was staged at Sam Boyd Stadium. Allegiant Stadium is the new host site for the Las Vegas Bowl.

Oregon State’s Vegas competition is likely to be UCLA. The Bruins are attractive because of a sizable television market and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who is from Las Vegas. But it’s not known whether Thompson-Robinson will skip the bowl, and he’s already committed to play in the East-West Shrine Bowl in Las Vegas.

The Sun Bowl remains a possibility for Oregon State, though unlikely.

The wild cards are these:

• If USC isn’t selected as an NY6 at-large for a Cotton Bowl berth. Then it’s chaos. Alamo Bowl likely goes to Trojans, then the Holiday Bowl will have its pick of Washington, Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA. Assuming it takes Washington, then Las Vegas has its pick of Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA. A tough call here between the Beavers and Ducks. If it’s Oregon, then OSU slides to the Sun Bowl, UCLA to LA Bowl and Washington State to an ESPN-created bowl.
• USC is in the mix for one of the final two CFP berths, with TCU, Ohio State and Alabama. But let’s be clear: The Trojans are, at best, a long shot. What if USC ends in the CFP? Then it’s possible Washington lands an NY6 at-large to the Cotton Bowl. Oregon State suddenly becomes a premier candidate for the Alamo Bowl, as Oregon played in last year’s Alamo. In this scenario, the Beavers cannot fall below Las Vegas, regardless.

-- Nick Daschel | ndaschel@oregonian.com | @nickdaschel