Early voting in the U.S. Senate runoff election in Georgia may have made Republican candidate Herschel Walker's prospects of winning bleaker, as turnout has been high in Democratic strongholds.
Voting is already underway—with Georgia voters getting the chance to cast their ballots last Saturday following a court ruling—and some Democratic-leaning areas, including Atlanta, have been making use of the opportunity.
Black voters made up 32.4 percent of the early vote for the runoff election through Thursday in what could also be a good sign for Warnock, who won 90 percent of the Black vote on November 8, according to an NBC News exit poll.
However, political scientists who spoke to Newsweek said that the race would still be very close and Walker could yet emerge victorious.
No Republican Urgency
During the midterm elections, Republicans were fighting for control of the Senate and it seemed possible the Georgia race could be decisive.
However, Democrats managed to win a majority without Georgia and the GOP's inability to take the Senate could depress turnout, according to Paul Quirk, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia in Canada.
"The way Congress works nowadays, most voters don't care very much about a Senate candidate's character, intelligence, or experience. It's gratifying to see your senator deliver a compelling speech, ask cogent questions in a hearing, or take the lead in advocating for a cause," Quirk told Newsweek.
"But the main thing is how he or she votes in numerous party-line votes that shape the direction of the country. In November, Republican voters turned out in force and mostly adhered to that logic, resulting in a close contest between Walker and Warnock," he said.
"Even then a significant fraction of them bailed out, voting for the Republican candidate for governor but not for Walker," Quirk went on. "But when the Democrats secured a 50th senate seat and control of the Senate, the urgency of that logic evaporated."
Scandal-Plagued Candidate
The Walker campaign has been dogged by controversy, including accusations that he paid for an ex-girlfriend's abortion and pressured another into having a termination—which he as denied—and his frequent public gaffes.
"Regardless of how Herschel Walker ultimately fares, the remarkable aspect of the Georgia runoff is how he's managed to make it as far as he has," Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek.
"For a scandal-plagued, rookie politician with no qualifications, no policy expertise, and no discernible message, getting within striking distance of a seat in the U.S. Senate is a feat in and of itself," he said.
Close Race
Even if signs suggest Walker is heading for defeat, polls have consistently shown the contest will be a close one and at this stage there is no guarantee of the result.
"This remains a very close race, still well within the margin for error, but where the polls suggest those few undecided voters left in Georgia may be edging towards Warnock," said Mark Shanahan, an associate professor at the University of Surrey in the U.K. and co-editor of The Trump Presidency: From Campaign Trail to World Stage.
"Walker has always been a risky candidate for the Republicans with no political background before 2022. For many voters, the more he has opened his mouth, the clearer it has been that being an All-American Football hero is a poor preparation for the cut and thrust of a statewide political campaign," Shanahan told Newsweek.
He said that: "without its 'must-win' status in the race for Senate control, many Republicans who voted on party lines while holding their nose about the candidate in November, may well just stay at home this week."
"But Georgia historically has favored Republicans in run-off races, so Walker will still believe he can win," Shanahan said.
Democratic Turnout
Ultimately, the Georgia Senate runoff will be decided by voters who show up both during early voting and on December 6. Warnock will be hoping to maximize Democratic turnout.
"The heavy turnout in early voting, especially in Democratic areas, points toward a solid victory for Warnock," Quirk told Newsweek. "In this situation, Walker's vote will probably be mostly limited to ardent Republicans—those who are willing to show up and be counted, even for a disastrous candidate, even though control of the Senate is no longer at stake, and with no other races to motivate them."
"The latest polls show Warnock leading Walker by 52 percent to 48 percent," Quirk said, referencing a recent CNN/SSRS poll. "But with Warnock's likely major advantage in turnout, his winning margin will probably be significantly larger."
Shanahan described Warnock as a "well-funded" candidate who "appears to have fared well in the early voting cycle."
"But Warnock needs to mobilize his base to get as many Democrats to the polls as possible on December 6," Shanahan warned. "The suggestions are that fewer Georgians have voted early than either in November or in the 2021 run-off. And with more Republicans tending to vote on election day, any sign of complacency leading to a Warnock failure to get the vote out could still hand Walker a six-year ticket to D.C."
Gift summed up the race: "What the election reflects, like so many races across the country, is that voting is only nominally about the actual candidates on the ballot. Instead, it's almost purely about Republican vs. Democrat."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Darragh Roche is a U.S. News Reporter based in Limerick, Ireland. His focus is reporting on U.S. politics. He has ... Read more
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