New York’s 2023 winter forecasts: Here’s what to expect for snow, temperatures

A National Weather Service graphic showing the temperature outlook for this winter.
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STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — While Staten Islanders are bracing for a frigid start to the winter season, long-term forecasts show the next few months are leaning toward being warmer than normal and may also come with less snow accumulation.

The National Weather Service’s seasonal temperature outlook now firmly places Staten Island in a wide swath of area that is between 40% and 50% likely to experience a warmer-than-normal winter.

The chance for warmer average temperatures begins to dissipate west of Staten Island, but that border has significantly been pushed away from the borough since predictions made earlier this fall.

An AccuWeather snow outlook.

AccuWeather is predicting New York City and an area stretching from Pennsylvania to sections of the southeast will experience less snow than normal through February.

Last winter began with little-to-no snowfall, registering just under a quarter inch of accumulation through the end of December. Then, a bomb cyclone that delivered a powerful weather system to the five boroughs helped propel snowfall totals by the end of January.

Even with that significant accumulation, New York City registered well-under its normal snowfall numbers for last winter, according to National Weather Service data, totaling under 18 inches.

Snowfall predictions issued by AccuWeather.

This year is predicted to have a slightly upward trend compared to last year

AccuWeather is expecting between six and nine days of snow accumulation for New York and between 18 and 23 inches of accumulation. The city’s average snowfall usually comes in at around 29.8 inches.

Below-average accumulation is also likely for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., AccuWeather said.

An AccuWeather snow outlook for this upcoming winter.

An AccuWeather graphic shows the downward departure of expected snowfall totals through this upcoming winter is widespread. Between 50% and 74% of normal accumulation totals are forecasted for the upcoming months across parts of the East Coast extending into the interior United States.

This year’s winter predictions, however, could be volatile, AccuWeather forecasters said, as this is the third consecutive winter being affected by a La Niña weather pattern.

“These third-year La Niñas are very tricky,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, in the company’s seasonal forecast.

Still, he signaled confidence that winter weather could again be holding off until later in the season.

“I think going forward, even though we’re in the La Niña [phase], it may be just too mild at the middle part of the season to get a lot of frequent [snow] events,” said Pastelok.

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