NFL quarterback power rankings after Week 12: Setting expectations for Deshaun Watson before his Browns debut

Deshaun Watson will make his return to an NFL field for the first time in nearly two years on Sunday when the Browns travel to Houston. He was reinstated from his 11-game suspension on Monday.

It’s fair to assume that there will be some rust when Watson returns to the football field. That doesn’t mean he won’t look like himself within a few games. But that also doesn’t mean there aren’t expectations placed upon him.

I discussed three potential expectations for Watson in our Football Insider newsletter on Monday morning. Here are two of them.

1. A couple of explosive plays while shaking the rust off

No one should expect Watson to throw for 300-plus yards and three touchdowns in these first couple of games. But one thing to reasonably expect is flashes of Watson’s immense talent.

He’s the type of quarterback that just needs one moment to make something happen. The Browns haven’t had a quarterback like that in a long time. For a team that hasn’t had that explosive element, it can open a lot of doors for Kevin Stefanski’s offense.

So expect some rustiness from Watson and maybe he misses some throws he would otherwise make in the first game or couple of games back. But you should also expect moments of magic by Watson because it’s what he’s done his whole career.

2. A winning record in the final six games

Even though the Browns are largely out of the playoff chase, there is still something to play for. The Browns have to build momentum for 2023 when Watson can play a full season. They also might want to try to keep the first-round pick they owe Houston in the 2023 NFL Draft out of the top 10.

The good news for the Browns is outside of the three divisional matchups in the final six weeks, the other three games are all extremely winnable, especially with Watson. Even if rusty, Watson and the Browns should be able to beat a Houston team that by a decent margin is the worst in the NFL.

I don’t expect them to run the table with Watson back. But going 4-2 or even 5-1 should be a reasonable expectation. Watson won’t fix everything, but his presence and explosive capability should do wonders for this team over time. After all, it’s why they gave up what they did to get him.

Here is a power ranking of all 32 starting quarterbacks based on how they have performed 12 weeks into the season. Their previous ranking is in parenthesis. If a starter was injured or benched within the last week, their replacement will be listed with the previous starter in parenthesis.

32. Kyle Allen, Houston Texans (32, replaced benched Davis Mills)

31. Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints (28)

30. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons (29)

29. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts (26)

28. Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers (31, replaced benched Baker Mayfield)

27. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (27)

Season stats: 175-265 (66.0%), 1,600 yards, 3 TDs, 8 INTs

Since coming out of the bye week, Pickett is playing solid football. He has yet to throw an interception in his last three games and the Steelers are 2-1 in that stretch.

Pickett was 20 of 28 passing for 174 yards in the Steelers’ 24-17 win at Indianapolis on Monday night. He also rushed for 32 yards on six attempts.

The signs continue to trend upward for Pickett. As for as what kind of ceiling Pickett has, we won’t know for some time. But it looks like he’s starting to settle in more as an NFL quarterback.

26. Bryce Perkins, Los Angeles Rams (14, replaced injured Matthew Stafford)

25. Trevor Siemian, Chicago Bears (16, replaced injured Justin Fields)

24. Mac Jones, New England Patriots (25)

23. Mike White, New York Jets (30, replaced benched Zach Wilson)

22. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (20)

21. Daniel Jones, New York Giants (18)

20. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns (23)

Season stats: 238-368 (64.1%), 2,608 yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs

Brissett went out as the Browns’ starter in a big way by helping to lead his team to two key touchdown drives vs. the Buccaneers. His touchdown to David Njoku in the final minute of regulation might have been his best throw of the season.

In the 23-17 overtime win, he was 23 of 37 for 210 yards, a TD and an interception, which came on a Hail Mary try at the end of the first half.

If indeed Brissett doesn’t take another snap this year, his season ends with career highs in completion percentage and quarterback rating (89.1). The Browns went 4-7 with Brissett, but he played about as well as the Browns could have hoped for.

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19. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (24)

18. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (22)

17. Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders (19)

16. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (21)

15. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (12)

14. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (17, returns for Colt McCoy)

13. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (13)

12. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (15)

11. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (11)

10. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9)

Season stats: 311-470 (66.2%), 3,051 yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs

Brady put up some good numbers against the Browns on Sunday, completing 29 of 43 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns. But in the Buccaneers’ 23-17 overtime loss in Cleveland, Brady looked surprisingly off in the clutch.

It’s not the classic Tom Brady we’re used to seeing. He had two drives in OT, and both drives ended in punts. But if we’re being fair, we also have to acknowledge that Myles Garrett played a huge role in wrecking both of those drives on third downs, drawing a penalty on one and sacking Brady on the other.

The good news for Brady and company is that the Buccaneers are still in first place in the NFC South as they host the Saints on Monday night.

9. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (8)

Season stats: 200-322 (62.1%), 2,231 yards, 17 TDs, 7 INTs

September continues to feel like a distant memory for Jackson. The Ravens had won four straight games despite his recent slippage.

But that streak ended as the Ravens blew two fourth-quarter leads in a 28-27 loss in Jacksonville. Jackson was 16 of 32 passing for 254 yards and a touchdown.

Four of Baltimore’s last six games are against AFC North opponents. But first up is a visit from the Broncos on Sunday, who have the third-best scoring defense in the NFL (17.6 points per game).

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (10)

Season stats: 124-182 (68.1%), 1,393 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs

The Cowboys are now 4-1 since Prescott came back to the lineup. Their 28-20 win vs. the Giants on Thanksgiving made sure Dallas is keeping the pressure on Philadelphia in the NFC East and at worst, securing the top Wild Card spot in the NFC.

Prescott was 21 of 30 passing for 261 yards, two TDs and two picks. The turnovers are a concern as he’s thrown four in the last three games. But he made up for it with a big two-TD third quarter.

The Cowboys will host the Colts, who are coming off a home loss to the Steelers, on Sunday night.

7. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (6)

Season stats: 257-353 (72.8%), 2,802 yards, 19 TDs, 5 INTs

Smith and the Seahawks’ offense played well enough to beat the Raiders on Sunday. But the defense was another story as they gave up an 86-yard touchdown run by Josh Jacobs in a 40-34 overtime loss.

Smith had another good game, completing 27 of 37 passes for 328 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

The loss dropped them a game back of San Francisco for first place in the NFC West. But a trip to face a freefalling Rams team could help Smith and the Seahawks get back on track.

6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (7)

Season stats: 312-463 (67.4%), 3,004 yards, 19 TDs, 7 INTs

Opponents have really done a good job of keeping Herbert from hitting the big play lately as he only has one game with a 50-yard pass since Oct. 2. But despite needing to throw short more often, Herbert was still able to rally his team to a 25-24 comeback win in Arizona.

Herbert was 35 of 47 for 274 yards and three touchdowns, including a 1-yard toss to Austin Ekeler and a two-point conversion pass to Gerald Everett with 15 seconds left.

It showed Herbert can win by doing more than just throwing deep balls, which is another good sign of his growth.

5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (5)

Season stats: 262-410 (63.9%), 3,183 yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs

Two things seem to be true with Josh Allen these days. His team continues to win, and he is still dealing with turnover questions. In the 28-25 win vs. the Lions on Thanksgiving, Allen threw a pick for the fourth time in his last five games.

He was 24 of 42 for 253 yards and two touchdowns to offset his interception. Allen has had picks in six of his last games but has only lost twice in that stretch.

The Bills face the Patriots on Thursday night for the first time this season.

4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (4)

Season stats: 279-409 (68.2%), 3,160 yards, 23 TDs, 8 INTs

Burrow has done a good job of bouncing back from his team’s poor Halloween performance vs. the Browns. He kept it going against the Titans as he led his team to a 20-16 win.

It was a solid game, but not a great one as he completed 22 of 37 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown. His QB rating (91.0) was actually lower than the 96.4 he had against the Browns. But what matters on the road is getting the win.

Burrow’s Bengals host the Chiefs in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game.

3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (2)

Season stats: 198-284 (69.7%), 2,564 yards, 19 TDs, 3 INTs

The Dolphins’ 30-15 win vs. the Texans on Sunday was not nearly as close as the score indicated. Tagovailoa was 22 of 36 passing for 299 yards and a touchdown.

But the reason he dropped was only finding the end zone once. It’s understandable why as he only played two series in the second half with the outcome well in hand.

Miami goes from playing one of the league’s worst defenses to possibly the best when they travel to face the NFL’s best scoring defense in the 49ers (15.7 ppg).

2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (3)

Season stats: 214-318 (67.35), 2,560 yards, 17 TDs, 3 INTs

Hurts led the way for the Eagles in a massive ground-game performance against the Packers. 157 of the Eagles’ 363 yards rushing came from the legs of Hurts in Philadelphia’s 40-33 win.

Hurts also completed 16 of 28 passes for 153 yards and two TDs in the victory.

Next up for the Eagles is a visit from the Titans on Sunday.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (1)

Season stats: 292-442 (66.1%), 3,585 yards, 29 TDs, 8 INTs

Mahomes and the Chiefs keep on rolling as he threw for 320 yards, a touchdown and an interception in a 26-10 win vs. the Rams.

But all eyes will be on the rematch in Cincinnati between the Chiefs and Bengals. Revenge should be on Kansas City’s mind after Mahomes and company didn’t score in the second half until Harrison Butker’s 44-yard field goal as time expired sent the game into overtime.

It’s been a long time since Mahomes’ infamous overtime interception, and he’s got a chance to get some measure of payback and keep Kansas City’s winning streak going at the same time.

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