Battle for Bakhmut Shows Russia 'Failed to Learn' From Losses: ISW

Temperatures in the eastern Ukraine city of Bakhmut are downright chilly right now but bloody battles are getting heated daily between Ukrainians and the opposing Russian forces.

The Battle for Bakhmut is looming to be deadly for both sides. The Russians could wear down their own troops, and morale, even if they were to take the city and claim victory. A long-fought battle of six months would probably give Russia little reward, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"Even if Russian troops continue to advance toward and within Bakhmut, and even if they force a controlled Ukrainian withdrawal from the city (as was the case in Lysychansk), Bakhmut itself offers them little operational benefit," the ISW said Wednesday evening. "The costs associated with six months of brutal, grinding, and attrition-based combat around Bakhmut far outweigh any operational advantage that the Russians can obtain from taking Bakhmut."

Bakhmut is located in the Donetsk region in heavily occupied eastern Ukraine. Temperatures in that part of the country are already frigid with high temperatures in the 20s or 30s for the next five days and into the teens at night.

The city of approximately 70,000 residents has already been reduced to mostly rubble from constant shellings, and soldiers are fighting from underground bunkers.

Russia has control of many surrounding areas but faces a daunting task of possibly fighting for Bakhmut for at least six months in brutal battles that lead to mounting deaths and not much to show for it.

"Russian offensives around Bakhmut, on the other hand, are consuming a significant proportion of Russia's available combat power, potentially facilitating continued Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere," ISW said.

ISW said that Russian military efforts around Bakhmut "suggest that Russian forces failed to learn from previous costly campaigns focused on operationally insignificant settlements."

Bakhmut is somewhat in the middle of nowhere, strategically speaking, for Russia's operational objectives other than its railroad and roadway hub.

Huseyn Aliyev, a research fellow and lecturer at the University of Glasgow, said occupying Bakhmut would have some significance for Russia.

"All other cities and towns in Donetsk region are too far from the Russian lines and the capture of Bakhmut will signify at least some progress for Russians in Donetsk region," Aliyev told Newsweek.

Russia has lost nearly 89,000 soldiers since the start of the war, according to the Ukraine Ministry of Defense. Russia has maneuvered troops from various spots in the past few months. The latest is that Russia plans to mobilize troops from Belarus into its occupied territories of Ukraine.

"It is expected that the grouping of the enemy's troops operating in the temporarily occupied and temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine will be strengthened due to the transfer of individual units from the territory of the Republic of Belarus after they acquire combat capabilities," the general staff of Ukraine's armed forces said on Sunday.

According to the Ukraine armed forces, there have been more than 88,800 Russian deaths since the full-scale war in Ukraine began in February. The war has entered its 280th day and 10th month.

Russia amassed troops along Ukraine's northern and western borders in late January while it also conducted military with neighboring Belarus. Russia attacked Ukraine on February 24 this year and there have been heavy casualties on both sides.

Since the war began, Russia has failed to overtake Kyiv, Lviv and Odesa, but they occupied many regions in the eastern portion of Ukraine. Russia has occupied most of the Donbas Oblast, which includes Luhansk, Severodonetsk, Donetsk and Mariupol. They occupied the Crimea peninsula in 2014.