2023 is predicted to be South Florida’s 12th year reaching warmer-than-normal temperatures.
The 2022-2023 Dry Season Outlook for the new year was released, and here is what it means for South Florida.
We are entering a third-straight year in La Nina, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) cycle. As a factor, 2023 is predicted to be South Florida’s 12th year in a row reaching warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter. La Nina can last from three to five years. La Nina cycles are also responsible for active hurricane seasons because they lead to a lack of wind shear. There have only been two other times since the 1950s when La Nina lasted for three cycles. The two periods were from 1973-1976 and 1998-2001.
As for the precipitation outlook, below-normal precipitation is expected across South Florida. The rainy season was drier than average, with a few exceptions. Potential Tropical Storm Alex lead to 10-20 inches of rainfall total across South Florida, including Palm Beach County, Broward and Miami-Dade. The second half of June, July and August were abnormally dry because of a strong easterly wind that was caused by a persistent subtropical high. This past October was drier than normal. November was wetter than normal because of the influence of Hurricane Nicole and stalled cold front that drew in rain.
Temperatures are predicted to run 1-3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Rainfall will be below the range of 65-95% for the season. As for impact weather and severe weather, we should be around normal, which is four to seven events per dry season.
Near normal drought development that can result in wildfires will be near normal – which results late in the season.
Robert Molleda, with NWS Miami, said, "In an average dry season, more often than not, we'll end up in at least a moderate drought towards the second half of the dry season."
The dry season began on Oct. 15 and will end on May 15.