New Year’s Six scenarios: Breaking down Penn State’s path to Rose, Orange, Cotton Bowl

Going into the final regular-season Saturday of the season, the Citrus Bowl was looking likely for the Nittany Lions. And that would’ve been a fine destination.

Then, LSU lost to Texas A&M. The Tigers, ranked No. 5 by the College Football Playoff committee, fell as 10-point favorites to an Aggies team that was 4-7.

On Tuesday night, the CFP committee’s updated rankings reflected that loss and made Penn State’s path to a New Year’s Six bowl a whole lot easier. Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC made up the top four, followed in order by Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee and Penn State with 9-3 LSU sitting at No. 14.

So, how do those rankings specifically affect the Nittany Lions? And what are the scenarios in which Penn State can land in the Rose, Orange and Cotton Bowl?

Let’s take a look.

Cotton Bowl

If everything goes to script on conference championship weekend, Penn State will likely end up facing Tulane or UCF in the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 2.

Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC winning their conference titles should secure their CFP spots. Ohio State would probably go to the Rose Bowl; more on that later. Alabama and Tennessee would slot in the Sugar Bowl (SEC tie-in) and Orange Bowl (highest-ranked Big Ten/SEC) while Penn State would go to Dallas as an at-large.

The only results that could keep the Nittany Lions out of the NY6 completely would be an LSU win or a Purdue win with everything else going off as expected.

If the Tigers upset Georgia, the 12-1 Bulldogs are still probably playoff-bound. But LSU, thought to be missing out on the NY6, would be locked into the Sugar Bowl, which is obligated to take the SEC champion. That could bump Alabama to the Orange Bowl and Tennessee to the Cotton Bowl, pushing Penn State to the Citrus.

If Purdue beats Michigan, it’s a similar deal. The 12-1 Wolverines would likely get in with Georgia, USC and TCU. Purdue would go to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten champs, moving Ohio State, Alabama and Tennessee to the Orange, Sugar and Cotton.

Now, the odds of either happening are slim. Georgia is a 17-point favorite over LSU while Michigan is a 16.5-point favorite over the Boilermakers. But you never know.

Orange Bowl

Chaos would have to ensue for the Nittany Lions to go to Miami.

The only semi-realistic path I came up with was Purdue beating Michigan, Kansas State blowing out TCU and Utah taking down USC. Michigan at 12-1 would still go to the playoff with Georgia, 11-1 Ohio State and — if the committee dismisses the Horned Frogs after one loss — 10-2 Alabama.

That combination would send Purdue to the Rose Bowl, Tennessee to the Sugar Bowl and Penn State to the Orange Bowl against Clemson or North Carolina.

Rose Bowl

If Michigan beats Purdue and Ohio State also reaches the CFP — say TCU or USC lose — Penn State is locked into the Rose Bowl. It’s that straightforward. But even if the Buckeyes don’t make the playoffs, Pasadena is still on the table for Penn State.

If the Big Ten champ is in the CFP, the Rose Bowl usually selects the next highest-ranked team. But there’s a caveat to that clause, per the Rose Bowl’s official website.

If the next highest-ranked team is in a “cluster,” meaning there’s another team or teams ranked within a few spots of each other, the Rose Bowl will select the team from that cluster that “will result in the best possible matchup.” Among the factors considered is the last time a team has played in the Rose Bowl.

Ohio State is No. 5. Penn State is No. 8. The Buckeyes have played in the Rose Bowl two of the last four years, including 2021. The Nittany Lions haven’t been since 2016.

It’s the “strong preference” of the Rose Bowl to take the highest-ranked team. But there’s a chance the Tournament of Roses opts for Penn State over Ohio State. Heck, there’s even a chance the Buckeyes turn down a Rose Bowl invitation in favor of a different NY6 bowl. It sounds crazy, but perhaps their fans would prefer Miami.

Kirk Herbstreit isn’t dismissing the idea of Penn State going to Pasadena. The ESPN analyst said on Tuesday’s rankings show: “I don’t know if they would send Ohio State out there again,” adding that Penn State is a “viable candidate” to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl even if the Buckeyes miss out on the CFP.

So, will the Nittany Lions be smelling roses? We’ll have to wait and see.