Now he’s gone and done it. This time Donald Trump has crossed the Rubicon of misconduct. He’s in so much trouble that only the Democrats can save him.
Trump’s Mar-a-Lago dinner with two anti-Semites, Kanye West and Nick Fuentes, is indefensible and his claim of ignorance about Fuentes’ Holocaust denialism won’t fly in a world with Google.
But almost as gag-worthy as Trump’s response is the ritualistic wave of predictions that the last act of his political career is imminent. Past prophecies to that end recall the “greatly exaggerated” reports of Mark Twain’s death, but that hasn’t stopped a fresh stampede to declare this time is different.
Even the White House couldn’t resist the temptation to try to bury Trump. “Bigotry, hate, and antisemitism have absolutely no place in America — including at Mar-A-Lago,” a press statement said. “Holocaust denial is repugnant and dangerous, and it must be forcefully condemned.”
Strong stuff — in contrast to the indecipherable mush the same administration dished out for the demonstrators risking their lives in China and Iran. In response to those calls for liberty, the leader of the free world offered mumble and more mumble.
If Trump is to become irrelevant, the howling jackals and election deniers who produced the Russia hoax will not be the cause or deserve the credit. Nor will the crown go to those who unleashed historic inflation, a crime wave and an open southern border.
Consider that many of those who insist he’s finally finished now still don’t understand how and why Trump became the 45th president and Hillary Clinton didn’t. Strangers to humility, their mission ever since has been to prove that the 63 million of their fellow Americans who backed him then were either hoodwinked or ignorant bigots.
The benighted number grew to more than 74 million two years ago, but rather than consider the possibility that Trump voters might have had legitimate reasons for their choice, Democrats and their media handmaidens have instead turned to the Justice Department with demands to lock him up.
They should be careful what they wish for because realizing their fantasy of seeing him in handcuffs could make him a martyr. To many, many Americans, prosecuting a former president on anything less than clear and convincing evidence of serious crimes would be final proof that the government is rigged and Washington is irredeemable.
If they really want to see Trump fade, his enemies should follow the well-worn political advice to step aside and be quiet when your opponent is committing suicide. Because that’s what Trump is doing, with his rotten choice of dinner companions, the latest sign he’s losing his touch.
Many Jewish supporters are faulting him while also resisting the media’s demand to disavow him forever. Trump was arguably the best friend Israel’s ever had in the White House, but fraternizing with anti-Semites is not easily forgiven among many Evangelical Christians as well as Jews.
Yet my reading of the Trump arc is that the end will not come as the result of a single incident, no matter how stupid or infuriating. Rather it will come after a long, slow decline, sort of like the melting of an ice cube.
Of course, in Trump’s case, the finale probably will be dramatic, similar to the bankruptcy in Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises,” which a character says took place “Gradually, then suddenly.”
Proof we’re in the gradual phase includes his mixed showing in the midterms. Voters in swing states rejected Trump’s candidates for key Senate and gubernatorial races, leading to an accepted analysis that his backing is too big a burden.
Actually, it’s not his backing so much as his litmus test that candidates he endorses must echo his incessant claim that the 2020 election was stolen. It’s a vanity cry that suggests silent approval for the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and worked in many GOP primaries, but it’s a proven loser in contested general elections in states that will decide the next president.
Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire, Ohio and Nevada all had a Senate seat up for grabs, and Trump-backed candidates lost them all except for J.D. Vance’s victory in Ohio. The result is that Chuck Schumer remains majority leader and Biden will get his judicial and Cabinet nominees confirmed.
Even Georgia, once reliably red, is now in play, though it offers a hint that Trump is finally realizing his limits. Because his “stolen” antics helped Dems win both Senate seats there in 2021 runoffs, and his candidate in the gubernatorial primary lost in a landslide this time, the former president reportedly will not rally with his Senate candidate, Herschel Walker, before run-off voting ends on Dec. 6.
If Walker prevails without a Trump appearance, that would be an earthquake — and the Trump ice cube would melt a little faster.
The one obvious conclusion to draw from all this is that Trump is a long shot to win the White House again. His extremely polarizing impact, his age and the fact that he can only serve one more term all make a 2024 victory appear improbable.
Still, he will not be finally defeated and pushed off the stage until he is beaten by another Republican. Most estimates of his support in the GOP are in the 30%-to-40% range, which is probably big enough to defeat challengers in most of the presidential primaries, especially when there are multiple candidates.
If that level of his support holds, the only way to overcome it would be for opponents with little chance of success to step aside and coalesce around one or two alternatives.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is by far the most popular among the opponents, and even bests Trump in some party polls. Following his blowout reelection win, DeSantis gives every indication he is preparing for a White House run.
He campaigned for Republican hopefuls in many states during the midterms and is a superstar fundraiser. And as I have noted, he is only 44 and could bring the core elements of Trumpism without the baggage of Trump, 76.
But one issue that should concern DeSantis is whether Trump would endorse the party winner, or try to destroy him and even mount a third-party run.
If Trump did either and split the GOP and conservative independents, virtually any Dem on the ballot, even dimwitted Joe Biden, would win in a landslide.
That possibility is leading many politicos on both sides to reach the same conclusion: As things stand now, Republicans can’t win in 2024 with Trump, nor can they win without Trump.
